Live by the Polls, Die by the Polls

[Dante]

see y'all in a week or so

 

[Dante]

A new survey: Pennsylvania found Harris leading Trump by 4 points in the state.

 

[Dante]

August 5, 2024

 

[Dante]

Harris beats Trump in the latest polls, expanding her lead in the national polling average​

Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a 3 point lead over Donald Trump in the national race for the White House, according to a pair of surveys released this week.

On Monday, Survey USA and UMass Amherst both released surveys showing the Democratic candidate winning over more likely voters than the former president, a stark turnaround from before she entered the race last month. According to Survey USA, Harris earns the support of 48% of likely voters while Trump earns the backing of 45%. According to Umass Amherst, the vice president has a 46% to 43 % lead over the GOP candidate; in January, the same pollster found Trump leading President Joe Biden by 43% to 39%.

Harris beats Trump in the latest polls, expanding her lead in the national polling average

 

[Dante]

In new Marist poll, Harris makes astronomical move on Trump​

In a new poll released Tuesday night, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has taken an enormous lead on former president Donald Trump among independent voters.

Harris is up nine points with that group (53%-44%) after being down 14 points with them when she launched her campaign just two weeks ago.

In new Marist poll, Harris makes astronomical move on Trump

The campaign is only two weeks old and the Democrats are steamrolling the GOP ticket

www.nj.com

 

[Dante]

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Widens Lead In Latest Surveys

Topline​

Vice President Kamala Harris continues to cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead since becoming the official Democratic presidential nominee, according to several new polls—with the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist survey showing Harris leading Trump by three points.


Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, disembarks Air Force Two at the Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport on July 23, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Jim Vondruska/Getty Images) Getty Images© Provided by Forbes

Key Facts​

Harris built a three-point lead over Trump in the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday, polling 48% to 45% over Trump, though with a margin of error of 3.3 points, Trump remains in striking distance, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. falls well behind at 5%.

Harris leads Trump 48% to 44% in Morning Consult’s latest poll released Monday, with 5% of registered voters surveyed selecting “someone else” and 4% saying they don’t know—the third week in a row Morning Consult’s weekly poll has shown Trump trailing Harris.

 

[Dante]

Had enough yet? 91 days to go.

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[Dante]

Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump

Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Dante]

 

[Dante]

see y'all in a week or so

Kamala Harris builds big lead over Trump in national poll​

Vice President Kamala Harris has a commanding lead nationally over former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll — as Republicans accuse Harris of avoiding media interviews for more than two weeks to avoid stumbling and potentially ending her “honeymoon” period as the Democratic candidate.

Harris would take 50% of the vote to Trump’s 42% among likely voters if third-party candidates are options, Marquette Law School found in a poll conducted July 24-Aug. 1, shortly after President Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 and endorsed Harris as his successor.

Although the poll’s margin is an outlier compared to other recent surveys, it reflects the trend toward Harris, 59, and away from Trump, 78 — as other indicators hint at a surge of enthusiasm among Democrats, including massive rallies rivaling the size of Trump’s and a tidal wave of fundraising.

Kamala’s Latest Polling Win Is a Devastating Blow to Trump​

Kamala Harris has inched ahead of Donald Trump in two key polls.​

Kamala Harris has officially pulled ahead of Donald Trump, according to two key national polling averages.

Harris and Trump were neck and neck toward the end of July, with Harris leading by a narrow 0.2 percent on July 28, according to FiveThirtyEight.

While that polling average reported a smaller lead for Harris, only 0.5 percent, it represents a major change in momentum for the Democratic Party, which has uniformly trailed Trump over the last six months, according to RCP.
Several other polls have also found Harris seizing the lead. VoteHub’s national poll aggregation found that Harris was leading by 0.3 percent. A poll The Economist published Tuesday had Harris in the lead, as well, beating the former president 47 percent to 46 percent. An NPR/Marist poll published Tuesday found that Harris had secured a lead, at 51 percent to Trump’s 48 percent.
Across the board, Harris has seen a significant uptick in positive polling in early August, which should cause Trump some concern.

Kamala’s Latest Polling Win Is a Devastating Blow to Trump

Kamala Harris has inched ahead of Donald Trump in two key polls.

newrepublic.com

Kamala Harris builds big lead over Trump in national poll — as GOP blasts lack of interviews in cautious rollout

Vice President Kamala Harris has a commanding lead nationally over former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll — as Republicans accuse Harris of avoiding media interviews for more than t…

nypost.com

 

[Dante]

Harris leads Trump by 5 points in Ipsos poll​

By Jason Lange
August 8, 20241:29 PM PDT

WASHINGTON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 37% in the race for the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, according to an Ipsos poll published on Thursday.

The poll found Harris had widened her lead since a July 22-23 Reuters/Ipsos survey, which found her up 37% to 34% over Trump.

The nationwide poll of 2,045 U.S. adults, conducted Aug. 2-7, found 4% of those surveyed backed independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., down from 10% in July.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-by-5-points-ipsos-poll-2024-08-08/

 

[Dante]

JD Vance Stung by Double-Digit Approval Drop in New Poll​

Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance has been stung by a double-digit dip in his net favorability among college students in the last two weeks, according to a fresh poll.

Vance's net favorability has suffered the most among college graduates, where it dropped 28 points to -27 percent in August, compared to +1 percent in July.

Vance's decreasing net favorability arrives amid continued scrutiny of his past comments about women in abusive relationships, abortion, and people without children, as well as his strong involvement with Project 2025, a controversial proposed policy document by the Heritage Foundation, which the Trump campaign has attempted to distance itself from.

MSN

 

[Dante]

Trump is freaking out about Kamala Harris’s surging poll numbers: ‘It’s unfair’​

SEI216373602.jpg© AP
Aweek after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the Atlantic published a headline claiming that "Trump is Planning for a Landslide Win."

Now, a little over a month and one presidential candidate swap later, the 2024 presidential election’s likely results appear a little less obvious.

With the defiant photo of a post-assassination attempt Trump pumping his fist in the rear-view, the former president has become increasingly frustrated by the surging poll numbers enjoyed by his presumed opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, according to five people close to the situation who spoke to The Washington Post.

Trump growing increasingly upset over Harris' surging poll numbers: Report​

Trump growing increasingly upset over Harris' surging poll numbers: Report

Former President Trump is growing increasingly upset over Kamala Harris' poll numbers and media coverage, according to new Washington Post reporting.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Dante]

Top election predictor moves three battleground states out of the Trump column into ‘toss ups’

Trump held rambling press conference at Mar-a-Lago to recapture some of the momentum taken by his Democratic opponent

news.yahoo.com

Top election predictor moves three battleground states out of the Trump column into ‘toss ups’​

Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, no longer look like they will be wins for the Trump campaign in 2024, according to election forecasters at the Cook Political Report, which moved the states from leaning Republican to “toss-ups.”

“Three weeks ago, Donald Trump was leading President Joe Biden in the Cook Political Report national vote tracker by about 2.5%,” editor-in-chief Amy Walter wrote on Thursday. “Today, Kamala Harris leads Trump by less than one point, a shift of more than three points in Harris’ direction. Battleground state polls are showing similar results, with Harris cutting into Trump’s lead by anywhere from two to five points.”

The site also found that the projected election results were within the margin of error in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

If the Harris-Walz campaign were able to win the states, it would build on the unlikely success of the Biden campaign, which flipped Arizona and Georgia in 2020.

Other election monitors have shown similar results in recent days.

 

[Dante]

Tim Walz's Approval Rating Surges as JD Vance's Falls

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz's approval rating has surged since he was announced as Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate, while Republican Donald Trump's pick, Ohio Senator JD Vance, has seen his fall, according to a poll.

A YouGov survey conducted on August 8, two days after Harris announced Walz as her vice presidential pick, found the governor with a net favorability rating of +11. That was up from a +1 net favorability in another YouGov survey conducted in late July.

Vance, on the other hand, has seen his approval rating drop since Trump announced him as his running mate on July 15.

The Republican's net favorability was -6 in a YouGov survey conducted between July 15 and July 19. It dropped to -9 in another survey conducted between July 22 and July 25.

 

[Dante]

Meanwhile, Harris has surged to a five-point lead over Donald Trump in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, putting her at 42 percent to the Republican’s 37 percent nationally with less than three months to go to November’s presidential election.

..

A new poll released Thursday of voters in Arizona, which has 11 Electoral College votes, showed Harris with a narrow lead over Trump.

The survey, conducted by Arizona polling firm HighGround, found Harris with nearly a 3-point lead over Trump.

It found that 44.4 percent of respondents plan to back Harris, while 41.6 percent plan to support Trump. Just over 5 percent said they were voting for another candidate, and about 9 percent didn't know for whom they planned to vote.

The survey was conducted among 500 likely voters from July 30 to August 5. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.38 percent.

Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Inc., wrote in a press release of the poll that Harris is starting off "with a narrow but notable lead."

Kamala Harris' Chances of Winning Arizona, According to Polls

 

[Dante]

Donald Trump Has No Lead Among Male Voters in Battleground State Poll

Former President Donald Trump has no lead among male voters in Wisconsin, according to a new poll.

The poll found that Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is leading Trump by 3 percentage points in the key battleground state, 48 percent to 45 percent.


The survey, which was conducted before Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, found that the same amount of male voters—46 percent—would vote for her as they would the Republican nominee if the election were held "today."

The poll of 800 registered voters was conducted by RMG Research, Inc., between July 31 and August 5. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Harris and Trump campaigns have been contacted for comment via email.

Harris is the first woman to serve as vice president and would be the first female president in history if she wins the White House in November.

Polling from July suggested Harris would struggle to get as much support from male voters as Trump.

 

[SweetSue92]

Donald Trump Has No Lead Among Male Voters in Battleground State Poll

Former President Donald Trump has no lead among male voters in Wisconsin, according to a new poll.

The poll found that Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is leading Trump by 3 percentage points in the key battleground state, 48 percent to 45 percent.


The survey, which was conducted before Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, found that the same amount of male voters—46 percent—would vote for her as they would the Republican nominee if the election were held "today."

The poll of 800 registered voters was conducted by RMG Research, Inc., between July 31 and August 5. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Harris and Trump campaigns have been contacted for comment via email.

Harris is the first woman to serve as vice president and would be the first female president in history if she wins the White House in November.

Polling from July suggested Harris would struggle to get as much support from male voters as Trump.

Tied in Wisconsin BEFORE she chose Timpon Stolen Valor

And now the NYT and the New Yorker are asking "Makala brings joy" to provide her policy.

 

[HikerGuy83]

The only poll that matters happens in November.

 

[Dante]

Tied in Wisconsin BEFORE she chose Timpon Stolen Valor

Wisconsin? Not sure where you're getting your intel from. Do you use the same source(s) as the Pizzagate Shooter?