Live by the Polls, Die by the Polls

[braalian]

I’ll agree that Trump has a history of outperforming the polls, so even though Harris has a slight edge in nearly all of them, that doesn’t mean a whole lot as to who’s gonna win at this point

But since we all know that, why are the Trump supporters here still posting fake graphs they found in twitter showing Trump leading?

 

[MarathonMike]

I’ll agree that Trump has a history of outperforming the polls, so even though Harris has a slight edge in nearly all of them, that doesn’t mean a whole lot as to who’s gonna win at this point

But since we all know that, why are the Trump supporters here still posting fake graphs they found in twitter showing Trump leading?

Maybe the graphs are accounting for the inherent "Trump error factor". I Haven't seen them personally, and don't care.

 

[Dante]

I’ll agree that Trump has a history of outperforming the polls, so even though Harris has a slight edge in nearly all of them, that doesn’t mean a whole lot as to who’s gonna win at this point

But since we all know that, why are the Trump supporters here still posting fake graphs they found in twitter showing Trump leading?

Nerves. 2020

 

[Dante]

Maybe the graphs are accounting for the inherent "Trump error factor". I Haven't seen them personally, and don't care.

Uh huh. okay.

 

[Dante]

Very interesting...

I tweaked Wisconsin and Michigan in Harris' favor as...

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

When put alongside Nate Silver's

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast​

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.​

Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson

 

[braalian]

Part of me hopes we get a 269-269 tie, just to be able to sit back and watch the shit show that ensues

 

[TemplarKormac]

 

[TemplarKormac]

Something tells me you leftists are in for bad surprise. The polls that get on the ground, like AtlasIntel, paint a far different picture than the so-called most trusted polling firms.

 

[BackAgain]

Pretty funny if the 3 on 1 ABC Kamala Assistance Staged Debate Benefit Show ended up making Trump an even bigger eventual winner.

I like this good-feel thread (even if I kinda do dismiss polling, in general).

 

[Dante]

Part of me hopes we get a 269-269 tie, just to be able to sit back and watch the shit show that ensues

funny thought, but I love the republic too much to want to see that. Then again, back to our roots.

 

[Dante]

Alaska, Alaska, Alaska
It’s unlikely, but the Last Frontier could be Harris’s last stand
Nate Silver
September 15, 2024

Notice the 251 as a starting point from here on in, in my map (few posts above) --

"On NBC, Steve Kornacki holds up a whiteboard, echoing the late, great Tim Russert. On it are written three words: “Alaska, Alaska, Alaska”. The Last Frontier hasn’t finished counting its votes either, but early returns are surprisingly positive for Harris, a state that Democrats have won just once in the state’s history, in 1964. With Arizona and Nevada and Alaska, Harris would win the Electoral College — just barely."

"Is this some sort of progressive election nerd wet dream? Yeah, probably. But our election model’s job is to think through every plausible scenario. And it thinks this contingency is possible, albeit unlikely."

 

[Dante]

I can see Harris at 267 ec votes (add NC to my guess), but...

It look like it's going to be much closer than many believe it will e.

Turnout!

The MAGA folks/Magadonians, are trying to suppress voting in counties all over the USA.

"If you want to vote in the presidential election, it’s time to check your voter registration. Even if you voted in a previous election, you’re not necessarily registered for this one, and the window to register closes early next month in some states. States periodically purge their voter rolls of people who haven’t voted recently or have died, moved or become ineligible by, say, being convicted of a felony. And sometimes eligible voters are mistakenly removed."

"If you live in a place that doesn’t allow registration on Election Day on Nov. 5, you should make sure your registration is up-to-date before your state’s deadline passes. Who is eligible to vote? Nearly all U.S. citizens who live in the 50 states and the District of Columbia and who will be age 18 or older on Election Day are eligible to vote in state and federal elections."


An election skeptic challenged hundreds of voter registrations, including one for a voting rights activist. A county official is dealing with the mess.

"Mrs.Strahl is not an expert" "The state’s voter list maintenance is very sophisticated" "An election skeptic challenged hundreds of voter registrations, including one for a voting rights activist"

3 Georgia Women, Caught Up in a Flood of Suspicion About Voting

 

[Dante]

Pretty funny if the 3 on 1 ABC Kamala Assistance Staged Debate Benefit Show ended up making Trump an even bigger eventual winner.

I like this good-feel thread (even if I kinda do dismiss polling, in general).

Fox News Poll Reveals Shocking Development for Harris Campaign

Donald Trump continues to feel the fallout of his debate performance, it seems.

www.yahoo.com

Kamala Harris has officially pulled ahead of Donald Trump, according to … Fox News?!

Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer reported Thursday evening that the former president had lost his edge in two key battleground states: Georgia and North Carolina. The conservative news network now considers them to be “toss-up” races, alongside Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

As a result, Harris had taken the lead in Fox’s Power Ranking predictions with 241 electoral votes to Trump’s 217. Hemmer noted that this was the first time Harris had pushed past Trump in their predictions.

 

[BackAgain]

Fox News Poll Reveals Shocking Development for Harris Campaign

Donald Trump continues to feel the fallout of his debate performance, it seems.

www.yahoo.com

Kamala Harris has officially pulled ahead of Donald Trump, according to … Fox News?!

Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer reported Thursday evening that the former president had lost his edge in two key battleground states: Georgia and North Carolina. The conservative news network now considers them to be “toss-up” races, alongside Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

As a result, Harris had taken the lead in Fox’s Power Ranking predictions with 241 electoral votes to Trump’s 217. Hemmer noted that this was the first time Harris had pushed past Trump in their predictions.

Wrong, the dainty.

First you’re still stuck on stupid. Polling.

Secondly, if polling means shit to you:

Harris “lead” skewed by the outlying Bloomberg poll report.

Or let’s consider another battleground State:

Now let’s contemplate battleground states:

And it goes on and on. While Vice President WordSalad tries to emulate Hiden Biden, her small primary bump seems to be gone.

Accordingly, this race is gonna demand that she up her game, massively. But how can she do that when she can’t communicate in a way that means anything to anybody?

 

[Dante]

People please ignore the troll BackAgain above.

Trolling, calling a post "wrong" when it is a link to what others have written. The pathetic attempts at personal attacks fail, but it can clutter up a thread.

 

[HikerGuy83]

The only poll that matters is taken on November 5th

 

[HikerGuy83]

People please ignore the troll BackAgain above.

Trolling, calling a post "wrong" when it is a link to what others have written. The pathetic attempts at personal attacks fail, but it can clutter up a thread.

Uh no.

Your lame attempt to deflect being squashed by your adversary is to say "ignore him".

That is just like you.

 

[BackAgain]

People please ignore the troll BackAgain above.

Trolling, calling a post "wrong" when it is a link to what others have written. The pathetic attempts at personal attacks fail, but it can clutter up a thread.

Please please grant the dainty^ more and more attention because obviously that all it cares about.

Objectivity and truth are clearly anathema to the dainty.

Other than that, until and unless the dainty ever starts to be honest and post in that manner, don’t worry about whatever the fuck that hack troll says.

Anus Stretched (aka “the dainty”) is simply a troll. As always.

Now: let’s see if we can compel that idiot to post ON TOPIC (as far fetched as that notion is):

The polls are — at best — presently not clear. They shed very little if any light on who is doing better in the Presidential race.

If the dainty wants to live by his misguided posting efforts about current polling, he needs to be educated on what they even say at this point.

 

[boevans]

LOL I guess all these voters didn't see the poll...
View attachment 959869

His crowds have become smaller than those of KH.

 

[The Irish Ram]

His crowds have become smaller than those of KH.

No they aren't. She pays and buses them in, Trump just has to show up.