LA Times/USC Poll Admits Its Dubious Methodology--New Trump Bounce May Have Peaked Already!

[mascale]

Los Angeles Times/USC poll is fun to follow since it is consistently over-stating Trump's National polling numbers by about 5 points each time. It so admits to it again today. The reason to follow it is also reported today. It is likely a better snapshot of what is happening among the Trump likely voters. They became more energized in the last few days--and now that is likely fading.

Donald Trump's lead widens in USC/L.A. Times tracking poll, which points to likely turnout as key shift

Trump has a seven point bounce commencing last weekend. Clinton likely voters were less so, in the same time-frame. The weekend events likely looked dramatic. That weekend is now long-gone. The major indicator is that the Trump bounce is orderly. First one point, then three points, then two, now one. Then there is the matter of the usual Clinton "Comeback." The actual campaign is about to get underway again today.

It is also noted that the Democratic nominee has been getting a national campaign organized, and funding it. Trump has funneled $60.0 mil. of his own bucks, into his campaign: Unable to find any donors. The money seems to mainly be spent among Trump family members and enterprises.

Clinton was not giving campaign speeches in August. Trump was likely staring, all the time pre-occupied: Into a hand-held device(?). That also works for ISIS, another form of Trump. ISIS does upwards of 90,000 social media messages per day, worldwide. Then recently it could be said reported that likely Pence doesn't find them "Deplorables" either, certainly not the Klan.

And what is missing from RNC? The usual campaign cadres. They are widely reported absent in the closely contested states. It would not be surprising to learn that Trump is better organized in California--where he trails in double-digits. That is a media-oriented state. It is large and populous.

Mostly, the Democrats likely will be more intense after early-voting opens in some states, October 1.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(My own Indian Name is "Running Live Target Practice," mainly noticeable near places of worship(?)!"

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Intense about what? An obvious sick candidate? By the way your thread title is a lie

 

[easyt65]

'MAY have...'

(We have no f*ing idea....)

 

[Carl in Michigan]

 

[hazlnut]

Los Angeles Times/USC poll is fun to follow since it is consistently over-stating Trump's National polling numbers by about 5 points each time. It so admits to it again today. The reason to follow it is also reported today. It is likely a better snapshot of what is happening among the Trump likely voters. They became more energized in the last few days--and now that is likely fading.

Donald Trump's lead widens in USC/L.A. Times tracking poll, which points to likely turnout as key shift

Trump has a seven point bounce commencing last weekend. Clinton likely voters were less so, in the same time-frame. The weekend events likely looked dramatic. That weekend is now long-gone. The major indicator is that the Trump bounce is orderly. First one point, then three points, then two, now one. Then there is the matter of the usual Clinton "Comeback." The actual campaign is about to get underway again today.

It is also noted that the Democratic nominee has been getting a national campaign organized, and funding it. Trump has funneled $60.0 mil. of his own bucks, into his campaign: Unable to find any donors. The money seems to mainly be spent among Trump family members and enterprises.

Clinton was not giving campaign speeches in August. Trump was likely staring, all the time pre-occupied: Into a hand-held device(?). That also works for ISIS, another form of Trump. ISIS does upwards of 90,000 social media messages per day, worldwide. Then recently it could be said reported that likely Pence doesn't find them "Deplorables" either, certainly not the Klan.

And what is missing from RNC? The usual campaign cadres. They are widely reported absent in the closely contested states. It would not be surprising to learn that Trump is better organized in California--where he trails in double-digits. That is a media-oriented state. It is large and populous.

Mostly, the Democrats likely will be more intense after early-voting opens in some states, October 1.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(My own Indian Name is "Running Live Target Practice," mainly noticeable near places of worship(?)!"

They have been the outlier poll for some time.

Their samples always seemed small.

 

[mascale]

LA Times doesn't take a sample. It has a national "panel" which it hacks into parts, and statistically treats the whole, based on that. The panel turns out to have inadvertently tapped more deeply into Trump voters than normal methodology. It says nothing about national outcomes--except the part, "Who do you think will win the election." That is consistently advantage, Clinton. What does get shown is how Trump supporters are reacting, more or less up-to-the minute. It may have captured that about it's Clinton supporters, over the weekend. The OP title is not a lie. Clinton is regarded the likely winner. Everything else is a bounce.

Supposing Trump is heavily reliant on a Media Markets campaign strategy, then likely a Nielson poll of TV--a panel approach--makes sense for reporting about that campaign. Comparing, mostly, there are no polls of recruits of ISIS, but ISIS marketing is heavily reliant on special Media Market, social media. Some estimates record upwards of 90,000 social media messages per day. Even in the primary, Republican prominent names were unable to create a similar following to Trump. He may have been better known. He famously also generally pumped social media all the time, and call-in radio-TV a lot of the time. The Republican Party, that anyone has heard of, essentially vanished.

The Republican Party has not yet recovered.

National polling now includes four parties, conceding that TV debates do happen. Likely the Greens and Libertarians will not be in the debates. Since it is only September--the LA Times/USC poll reminds anyone only that mostly the national electorate is largely "undecided." There are four directions to go. Even the Trump base wavers, gets aroused, and wavers. The Clinton base wavers, gets aroused, and wavers. RNC has mainly dropped out of the National Election. The DNC ramps up next month. So next month's polling will be fun to watch, going forward.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(What does Pence have in common with the deity of Moses? Following Deuteronomy 23:19-20, "Screw 'Em is acceptable to both, and to the Imperialist, Moses, himself! The basis concept is, "What Have You Got To Lose(?). . .anymore?" Household incomes, after all, increased 5% in just last year, alone. Clearly it is "Back-to-Bush time again, at the Trump campaign! Bring on another Foreclosure Crisis, like in the Bible--Matt 25:14-30.)