The Rayno Report | Fed Puzzle: The Massive Collapse in Money Velocity
Few people are talking about the complete collapse in money velocity, which is now at a five-decade low.
Money velocity is one of those key metrics on the Fed dashboard. If the trillions in Fed stimulus were really working it's way into the economy or "Main St." as was designed, you would see an increase in rate that money moves through the economic system with lending, monetary transactions, and economic activity -- the measure known as Money Velocity.
When economic activity is high and at risk of overheating, such is in the late 1990s, the velocity of money is high, reflecting the vact that money is changing hands in transactions and banking activity. In fact, the opposite is now happening. As witnessed by chart above, money velocity, as measured by the M1 and M2 measures, has collapsed. This may reflect the econoimc malaise that things are not as good as the financial markets appear to be telling us.
If you want a quick lesson on this, follow this awesome Khan Academy video.
With the velocity of money plummeting, it's clear that something in the fractional reserve banking system is broken -- the money remains trapped in the financial system.
Yet another indicator of this is the Fed's Money Multiplier, or an indicator of how the money injected in the banking system is multiplied by lending and economic activity. That's reached new lows recently too, indicating that the fractional reserve system is not living up to expectations.
All of this is deflationary, not inflationary, and may explain why the trillions in Fed stimulus has not resulted in massive inflation that has been predicted. This also explains why the Fed has remained so accomodative and reluctant to pull the stimulus, because of underlying deflationary forces.
This is great for Wall St., but not necessarily good for Main St. It means that traders with access to large amounts of cheap trading capital can continue to make big bets as the Fed supports their access to capital -- but small businesses can't get the same access to capital.
As Gloom, Doom, and Boom report publisher Marc Faber recently pointed out in Barron's, this means the rich get richer and the middle and lower classes continue to suffer.
"Money-printing boosts the economy of the people closest to the money flow," said Faber in the Barron's interview. "But it doesn't help the worker in Detroit, or the vast majority of the middle class. It leads to a widening wealth gap. The majority loses, and the minority wins," said Faber in the interview.
