Even Krugman agreed with the prediction. He said it was too weak, but that the CEA estimates were close to his own.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/20...stein-on-stimulus/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
So both the White House and the left's favorite Economist thought that the unemployment rate would spike and then recover without any stimulus, the only difference was the time it would take the get there. Neither thought the stimulus would actually make things worse, and neither said that without the stimulus the US would fall into a depression.
Thanks.
And might I point out that neither predicted 2008, as far as I remember.
Setting the Record Straight Six Years of Unheeded Warnings for GSE Reform
For years, George W. Bush predicted financial difficulties with mortgages if Congress didn't reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
THIS George Bush???
So Much for Bush's 'Ownership Society'
By
Zachary Karabell
Filed: 10/10/08 at 8:00 PM | Updated: 3/13/10 at 5:03 PM
Remember the ownership society? President George W. Bush championed the concept when he was running for re-election in 2004, envisioning a world in which every American family owned a house and a stock portfolio, and government stayed out of the way of the American Dream.
These families were, of course, conservative, or at a minimum traditional and nuclear, consisting of a heterosexual married couple and at least two kids living in a stand-alone home with a yard, a car or two and a multimedia room with a flat-screen television. The latter was a new addition to this 21st-century simulacrum of the 1950s "Leave It to Beaver" idyll. But the dream was the same.
Such a country would be more stable, Bush argued, and more prosperous. "America is a stronger country every single time a family moves into a home of their own," he said in October 2004. To achieve his vision, Bush pushed new policies encouraging homeownership, like the "zero-down-payment initiative," which was much as it sounds—a government-sponsored program that allowed people to get mortgages without a down payment. More exotic mortgages followed, including ones with no monthly payments for the first two years. Other mortgages required no documentation other than the say-so of the borrower. Absurd though these all were, they paled in comparison to the financial innovations that grew out of the mortgages—derivatives built on other derivatives, packaged and repackaged until no one could identify what they contained and how much they were, in fact, worth.
As we know by now, these instruments have brought the global financial system, improbably, to the brink of collapse. And as financial strains drive husbands and wives apart, Bush's ownership ideology may end up having the same effect on the stable nuclear families conservatives so badly wanted to foster.
Newsweek