Kerry Widens Lead In Latest N.H. Poll

[jimnyc]

** Bye bye Dizzy Dean! **

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Sen. John Kerry's lead in New Hampshire has increased over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the first tracking poll done entirely after the Iowa caucus.

Kerry has the support of 37 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the WMUR-TV tracking poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Dean has slipped to 19 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 4.7 percent.

The turnaround since the Iowa caucus has been dramatic. In a tracking poll before the caucus, Kerry was second, with 24 percent support, while Dean was first, with 33 percent. Since Kerry's victory in Iowa, he has gained 13 percent, while Dean has lost 14 percent.

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark has also slipped somewhat, with 15 percent support, compared to 18 percent on Jan. 19. Sen. John Edwards has finally shown some upward movement, with 11 percent support, compared to 8 percent previously.

http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2789061/detail.html

 

[wonderwench]

I believe we will see a Kerry-Edwards ticket come the Dem Convention.

Dean has flamed out, big time.

 

[jon_forward]

atomic flame-out

 

[wonderwench]

To his credit, he did provide a moment of great theater!

 

[Annie]

Agree with Dean, how is Lieberman doing? Not so sure that Edwards wants or needs second billing. He is untested, doubt he could win against Bush, but Kerry has serious negatives.

 

[wonderwench]

The odds are that Lieberman will drop out after New Hampshire.

Too bad - he is the only decent guy among them.

I disagree about Edwards not being interested in the Veep spot. He is young enough to gain the Presidency via a sting as Veep. He will probably factor in wanting to pre-empt someone else from the heir apparent slot.

 

[jon_forward]

Joe is an alright fella... hate to say it but his faith is holding him back alot but also have to give him credit for standing tall.. Edwards is somewhat the unknown...when the smoke clears after NH it will be interesting to see who is left

 

[Annie]

WW not making a guess on Lieberman, my take from last night, he should go up, perhaps pass Clark.

Dean is 50, not ancient, take it from one who knows.:crutch:

Still unsure that is what he plans, it's possible he could tap into the 'anger' turn it milder and take it for a run.

 

[acludem]

Of the candidates remaining, Kerry has the most positives I think. He's experiences, he's a Vietnam Vet, he's likeable, he's a good speaker, and he's well known.

Edwards also has a lot of positives - good looking, good speaker, very likeable, can draw votes from both left and middle.

Lieberman is too conservative, Dean has lost all momentum, Clark can't campaign, and Sharpton...well. I think it's between Kerry and Edwards and Kerry-Edwards ticket is not out of the question at all.

acludem

 

[jon_forward]

dean has lost it..clark never had it.. Al and Big D have way to much in common ...the democrats best chance is 08..this in all likely hood is just a dry run...I dont see any "ARNOLD" stepping forward

 

[MtnBiker]

POLL-Kerry Holds Lead But Race May Be Tightening

Jan 24, 7:01 AM (ET)

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry holds a nine-point lead over Howard Dean in New Hampshire but the race appears to be tightening, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Kerry led Dean 31 percent to 22 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, but the last day of polling showed Kerry with a much smaller margin over Dean while John Edwards and Joseph Lieberman both gained ground on the leaders.

"Kerry's lead is now nine points over three days, however he led only by 26 percent-22 percent over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10 percent," pollster John Zogby said.

"Dean's showing on Friday may suggest that he has bottomed out and may in fact be starting to increase," Zogby said. "Another day like this and Dean may be in striking distance again."

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

The Democratic race in New Hampshire has been turned upside down by the results of Monday's Iowa caucuses, where Kerry rolled to a big win and one-time front-runner Dean collapsed to third place in the battle to find a candidate to challenge President Bush.

Dean's much-lampooned Iowa concession speech appeared to damage his candidacy as Kerry stretched his lead in polls, but the former Vermont governor made light of it on Thursday and appeared on national television with his wife, Judy, in an interview designed to soften his image.

Dean, who held a more than 20-point lead over Kerry in New Hampshire in December, suggested on Friday that his campaign had "turned a corner" and was coming back up.

"We know New Hampshire always likes to change what Iowa does," Dean told campaign volunteers in Keene, New Hampshire. "The question is how hard everyone is willing to work to get to where we were before."

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, in third place, held steady at 14 percent. Edwards, a North Carolina senator, and Lieberman, a Connecticut senator, each gained one percentage point to 8 and 7 percent, respectively, over the course of the three days of polling.

The number of undecided voters dropped from 17 percent to 13 percent three days before the primary, the poll found.

Zogby said Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, held leads among most sub-groups in the poll. That included double-digit advantages with independents, who form the state's largest voting bloc and can vote in either party's primary.

The poll of 601 likely primary voters was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. It will continue through Tuesday, the day of the New Hampshire primary.

Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich received 2 percent in the poll, with civil rights activist Al Sharpton getting 1 percent.

link
Dean is not dead yet and he still has alot of money to spend. He will be around for a while. It will be interesting to see who lasts longer Dean or Clark.

 

[Annie]

Well looks like you were all right, Al looks out of it, which is probably a good thing.

Kerry-Edwards/Kerry-Clark looks like the big news right now, of course 2 weeks ago Dean had it all 'sewn up', so one never knows...

 

[MtnBiker]

Jan 26, 7:03 AM (ET)

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Democratic presidential contender John Kerry holds a shrinking three-point lead over Howard Dean on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released Monday.

Dean shaved four points off Kerry's advantage in the latest three-day tracking poll, as supporters who wavered after his dismal third-place Iowa finish and screaming concession speech appeared to be returning to the fold.

Kerry led Dean 31 percent to 28 percent in the new poll, with John Edwards jumping three points to narrowly trail Wesley Clark for third place, 13 percent to 12 percent. Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman remained static at 9 percent.

"There is no question that the race has tightened up," pollster John Zogby said. "Dean stopped the bleeding in the middle of the week and he has slowly regained some of the support he had lost."

Dean's favorable ratings crept back up this week but almost half of likely New Hampshire voters still think it is unlikely he can beat President Bush -- a crucial issue as Democrats look ahead to November's general election.

"There are some serious doubts about whether he can beat President Bush," Zogby said of Dean, who gained five points in the new poll while Kerry gained one point and Edwards jumped three points. The other candidates stayed level.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

The New Hampshire primary has seen many late momentum swings and surprise showings through history, sometimes fueled by the state's large bloc of independent voters, who can cast ballots in either the Democratic or Republican primary and traditionally decide late.

In Monday's poll, undecideds who were leaning toward one candidate were factored into the totals, leaving three percent undecided. Without factoring the leaners in the totals, 13 percent of likely New Hampshire voters remain undecided.

Other polls have shown Kerry with a much wider lead.

Kerry, a senator from neighboring Massachusetts, rolled to his lead in New Hampshire this week after a surprising comeback win in Iowa's caucuses that gave his campaign a huge jolt of momentum.

Late last month Dean, the former governor of neighboring Vermont, led polls in New Hampshire by more than 20 points, but much of his lead evaporated in the week before Iowa and quickly disappeared after his loss there.

Clark, the retired general and former NATO commander, is trying to hold third place despite a charge from Edwards, the North Carolina senator who finished a strong second in Iowa.

The poll of 601 likely primary voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. The final poll will be released Tuesday, the day of the New Hampshire primary.

Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich received 2 percent in the poll, with civil rights activist Al Sharpton getting 1 percent.



link
He is still in there, the field will narrow after the New Hampshire primary and Dean will be around for awhile.

 

[jon_forward]

I believe you are right Mtnbiker....Deans handlers have him on a VERY short leesh....

 

[MtnBiker]

Haha, makes it sound like he is a disobedient dog.

 

[jon_forward]

wont be long and he will make another blunder....maybe they got his meds changed