Part 1
If Donald Trump was anyone other than Donald Trump, he would have pled guilty by now to the charges that are inevitably coming from the Mar-a-Lago search. Of course, if he was smart, he would have comprehensively searched and returned everything in his possession the minute the National Archives came knocking. So, this isn’t about whether he’s smart. It’s about whether he has a survival instinct and some common sense at this point.
He does not. If he did, the only smart move, after his failed efforts at deceiving federal prosecutors and his attempt to obstruct the investigation came to light, would’ve been a guilty plea. That’s the only thing that could limit his exposure on charges, some of which carry a statutory maximum penalty of twenty years in prison.
Justice Department decisions about charging cases are grounded in internal precedent from similar cases. That makes sense—as a prosecutor, you want to do your best to treat like cases alike. So prosecutors, after determining that they have sufficient evidence to obtain and sustain a conviction—that’s the “could you” question—are charged with considering whether they
shouldindict. And one of the “should” considerations involves how DOJ has handled similar cases in the past.
That’s why it was predictable that prosecutors would give Mike Pence a pass for his possession of classified documents. His team voluntarily searched and returned everything without a request from NARA. His possession appeared to be inadvertent, and he took no steps to conceal it or retain documents; rather, he advised NARA he had them and invited them to come take possession. DOJ doesn’t charge cases like that—indicting defendants isn’t meant to be a gotcha game; it’s a serious matter of doing justice on behalf of the American people.
As opposed to Pence’s conduct, disseminating classified documents or national defense information would present the most serious type of situation here. Based on what is publicly known, there isn’t sufficient evidence to charge Trump with dissemination, at least not yet. The special counsel’s office doubtless has more definitive information in this regard than the public does.
But Trump’s case is not the same as Pence’s. Even if all the government can establish is retention, there are aggravating factors here that make Trump’s situation akin to others where DOJ has charged retention cases. And because DOJ operates on the principle of treating like cases the same, that strongly suggests we will see an indictment here, perhaps involving more people than just Trump himself.
If Donald Trump was anyone other than Donald Trump, he would have pled guilty by now to the charges that are inevitably coming from the Mar-a-Lago search. Of course, if he was smart, he would have comprehensively searched and returned everything in his possession the minute the National Archives...
joycevance.substack.com