It is already happening, inflation, get ready for Trump inflation.

Insane claim. First, the companies have to replace those retired workers. You think they can replace them on the cheap? What, were you an executive at Circuit City? Second, those workers have to be trained, is that shit free. Are companies going to eat the cost or pass it on? Damn but the stupidity in this thread is mindnumbing.
People don't go to work to keep prices low. Are you for mandates to keep workers working longer?
 
So we need workers working for less to keep inflation down? Ask them to accept this.
 
What economists? Why didn't they warn us about the Biden inflation trend? You almost have to feel sorry for the desperate left these days
They did warn if you were paying attention, not of the Biden inflation, but the inflationary effect of all the Covid stimulus checks, the PPP, the increase in the deficit. Guess you didn't catch that on Facebook.
 
Already happening? Did you forget Biden was still president?
You people are real pieces of work. Mortgage rates spiked because of concerns over Trump's policies, not anything Biden did. And mark my words, when inflation fires back up after Trump takes office you will find a way to blame Biden. Idiot.
 
Well it didn't take long for Dems to start blatantly lying about Trump. Have Dems threatened to impeach him a 3rd time yet?
 
Great, let's talk about the corporate tax cut coming down the pipe. How did that work out last time? Look, you have already demonstrated you don't know jtackshit about corporate finance, probably don't even know what a Monte Carlo demonstration is. Fine, we can move on. But surely you no the definition of a curve. It is called the Laffer curve, do you really thing the inflection point of that curve is under 25%?

Great, let's talk about the corporate tax cut coming down the pipe. How did that work out last time?

It worked great.

Now, are you going to explain more about how higher tax rates stimulate new investment?



It is called the Laffer curve, do you really thing the inflection point of that curve is under 25%?


Why would I mind tax rates below the inflection point?
 
Nothing. It could just as easily be a reflection of a coming recession. During the French Revolution, bread was worth more than gold.

What do gold futures today say about inflation expectations?

The opposite of gold futures rising.
 
Immaterial, dba. Trump's border and tariff plans will damage the economy.

Nobody ever answers this question regarding tariffs. I’ll try again.

How is it that tariffs, which will be targeted, will cause consumer prices to rise and yet corporate tax hikes for all US companies as proposed by Democrats would not.? Just curious as to the logic behind this.

PS: There is no reasonable logic behind it, but I look forward to some spin.
 
What is inflation now? Do you need a dictionary to understand what transitory means?

Transitory means not a trend in economic terms. The fed and Yellen even dropped the term because they knew they were wrong. Some economists and some people who weren’t completely biased knew they were wrong the minute they said it. I was one of them as my posts on this board will reflect. The point is that nearly every academic profession we have now is skewed by politics and it is dominated by Democrats.

In the spring of 2021, the Fed was forced to confront a problem the country had not experienced in decades: really high inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased at an annualized rate of 4.2% in April, the highest level in almost 13 years. By May, the year-over-year increase had risen to 4.9% before increasing to 5.3% in June.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials told Americans not to worry. They argued that high inflation was due to a series of weird circumstances, such as supply chain issues and comparisons to 2020 when economies were shut down.

Plus, the trendline was driven by a few goods, such as used cars, and it was not-broad based. According to Powell, soon everything would go back to normal.

“[T]hese one-time increases in prices are likely to have only transient effects on inflation,” Powell said in March 2021.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, for her part, expected inflation to drop by the end of the year. That was the conventional wisdom among most economists at the time.

They were all wrong.

Transitory Inflation: A Short History
 
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Nobody ever answers this question regarding tariffs. I’ll try again.

How is it that tariffs, which will be targeted, will cause consumer prices to rise and yet corporate tax hikes for all US companies as proposed by Democrats would not.? Just curious as to the logic behind this.

PS: There is no reasonable logic behind it, but I look forward to some spin.
Immaterial, dba. Trump's border and tariff plans will damage the economy.
 

I have been pretty busy since election day, but today I stayed home and did some research.

I posted a couple of threads during the presidential race indicating that Trump's proposals were highly inflationary, but I didn't think it would start this quickly. Let's look at some of his priorities and how they will impact inflation. Let us start with making the Trump taxcuts permanent.

updated%202024%20PnP_fig1_v1.png.webp

That proposal alone adds one trillion dollars a year to the deficit. Just to let you know, the deficit for the 2024 budget was projected at 1.8 trillion. That is more than a fifty percent increase, think that might be inflationary? Does anyone think there will be a one trillion dollar reduction in spending? Seriously?

Outside of cutting SNAP benefits, eliminating free lunch programs for millions of indigent children, eliminating aid to Ukraine, and eliminating the Department of Education, I don't see any real proposals to cut spending. And the later, well it is going to end up costing all of us through higher property and sales taxes.

Listening to Trump on the campaign trail, well he leads you to believe that the entire budget of the Department of Education is spent on the salaries of bureaucrats. That is just not the case. The federal government accounts for over ten percent of the funding of public schools, and in low-income and rural areas it is much higher. If that is eliminated it will have to be replaced, at least to some degree. That means you are going to pay for it through higher local and state taxes.

Then there are tariffs. I mean you are living in a fantasy world if you believe what Trump says, those foreign countries will pay the cost. It just doesn't work that way, it is basic Macroeconomics. Sure, it might motivate more people to "buy American", but then again, why should we need tariffs for that? What happened to patriotism? Walmart famously tried the concept, posting American made signs beside merchandise made in America. That went over like a turd in a punchbowl and was quickly eliminated. Nobody really cared, they wanted cheap. Well, those tariffs will take "cheap" off the table.

Then there is that mass deportation. Sounds good. Russia and Germany sure bud liked the idea before and during WWII. But that comes at a cost, and it severely cuts the labor force. And sorry, some jobs Americans are not going to do no matter how much they get paid. I mean around here there is a huge immigrant labor force working the fields. They drive Hummers and F-250's, obviously they are making good money. You are looking at food shortages for everything from tomatoes to leaf lettuce. That is going to drive prices up.

But anyways, like I said, it has already started. This morning the first thing I thought of was the rating agencies. I was like, damn, they need to make a statement. Warn of a downgrade if Trump's initiatives are carried out. Well damn, they have.


And mortgage rates, yep, done deal.


I wish, I wish, I wish I were a fish. You got it Mr. Limpet, and it ain't going to be pretty.
Perhaps the dumbest post of the season. To think you stayed home to "research this" and write that piece of shit.
 

I have been pretty busy since election day, but today I stayed home and did some research.

I posted a couple of threads during the presidential race indicating that Trump's proposals were highly inflationary, but I didn't think it would start this quickly. Let's look at some of his priorities and how they will impact inflation. Let us start with making the Trump taxcuts permanent.

updated%202024%20PnP_fig1_v1.png.webp

That proposal alone adds one trillion dollars a year to the deficit. Just to let you know, the deficit for the 2024 budget was projected at 1.8 trillion. That is more than a fifty percent increase, think that might be inflationary? Does anyone think there will be a one trillion dollar reduction in spending? Seriously?

Outside of cutting SNAP benefits, eliminating free lunch programs for millions of indigent children, eliminating aid to Ukraine, and eliminating the Department of Education, I don't see any real proposals to cut spending. And the later, well it is going to end up costing all of us through higher property and sales taxes.

Listening to Trump on the campaign trail, well he leads you to believe that the entire budget of the Department of Education is spent on the salaries of bureaucrats. That is just not the case. The federal government accounts for over ten percent of the funding of public schools, and in low-income and rural areas it is much higher. If that is eliminated it will have to be replaced, at least to some degree. That means you are going to pay for it through higher local and state taxes.

Then there are tariffs. I mean you are living in a fantasy world if you believe what Trump says, those foreign countries will pay the cost. It just doesn't work that way, it is basic Macroeconomics. Sure, it might motivate more people to "buy American", but then again, why should we need tariffs for that? What happened to patriotism? Walmart famously tried the concept, posting American made signs beside merchandise made in America. That went over like a turd in a punchbowl and was quickly eliminated. Nobody really cared, they wanted cheap. Well, those tariffs will take "cheap" off the table.

Then there is that mass deportation. Sounds good. Russia and Germany sure bud liked the idea before and during WWII. But that comes at a cost, and it severely cuts the labor force. And sorry, some jobs Americans are not going to do no matter how much they get paid. I mean around here there is a huge immigrant labor force working the fields. They drive Hummers and F-250's, obviously they are making good money. You are looking at food shortages for everything from tomatoes to leaf lettuce. That is going to drive prices up.

But anyways, like I said, it has already started. This morning the first thing I thought of was the rating agencies. I was like, damn, they need to make a statement. Warn of a downgrade if Trump's initiatives are carried out. Well damn, they have.


And mortgage rates, yep, done deal.


I wish, I wish, I wish I were a fish. You got it Mr. Limpet, and it ain't going to be pretty.

You wasted a day off.
 
Yes, ending wars would save some money, in the short term. Specifically, I am talking about Ukraine. The German coalition government collapsed last week. They are the second largest provider of aid to Ukraine, behind the US. Trump will negotiate a ceasefire, and he will pronounce himself God afterwards. But he is a fool. Putin will negotiate , but it won't be what you think. He will agree to a ceasefire. He will agree to creating a DMZ at the current border. But Trump will agree that Ukraine can't lobby to join NATO for two decades. All aid to Ukraine will cease. Russia will rearm, rebuild their military. Before the end of Trump's term, Russia will be in Kiev and there will be no Ukraine.

They wouldn’t re-invade on Trump’s watch. Won’t happen. They would wait to see if America is dumb enough to elect another feckless Democrat before making any subsequent moves. It is amazing that you guys haven’t figured it out yet that our enemies are taking advantage of Democrat’s weakness.
 
You people are real pieces of work. Mortgage rates spiked because of concerns over Trump's policies, not anything Biden did. And mark my words, when inflation fires back up after Trump takes office you will find a way to blame Biden. Idiot.

And the stock market jumped because investors are giddy over not having to deal with the Democrat’s boneheaded economic policies.(capital gains increases across the board, unrealized capital gains taxes for the ultra-wealthy, raising the corporate income tax rate, etc.)
 
Border shutdown, tariffs, and deportation will hurt you far more than me.
 
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