"Flash back four years: With the American economy just emerging from a two-year recession in the fall of 1992 and many Americans nervous about their economic prospects, Carville's one-note samba -- played over and over again throughout the campaign -- clearly helped propel Bill Clinton into the White House, forcing George Bush to retire to his beloved Texas.
Now it's Bill Clinton's turn to run for re-election. And though the economy is not moving backward (the definition of a recession), it's not setting any speed records either. Fifty percent of major U.S. companies trimmed their payrolls in the 12 months ending June 1995, some of them significantly. Indeed, from March 1995 to March 1996, 325,000 high-paying manufacturing jobs disappeared, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The public -- especially the nearly 8 million people who are working two or more jobs to make ends meet -- know something is amiss. And they are concerned.
Beach and Hodge turned the clock back to January 1993, before the new administration pushed the $241 billion tax hike through the 103rd Congress. Without getting into all of the mind-numbing technical details, they then ran the model on "fast-forward," asking it to tell them what the economy would look like today if tax and budget policy had not been changed in 1993.
What they found was
not good news for the White House."