I just think you overestimate the power of word of mouth, who people vote for is based on their beliefs, not what a friend tells them. Plus I don't think everybody at trump rally's are going to vote for trump, many are just checking out the show. Also, if you add Hillary plus her serrogates attendees they are getting the same numbers if not more when compared to just Trump and pence. Plus they have a much bigger ground game that gets out the vote... add all that together and you have a very tight race and advantage Clinton when considering the polls and electoral map
Yeah, I dont know of any formal studies done, just examples like Gibsons marketing Passion of the Christ.
The media downplays or ignores the impact of Word of Mouth because they sell advertising and Word of mouth topics in essence undercut their cash flow.
But it is very effective and I recall that the whole phenomena is often referred to as a "social epidemic"
How Ideas Spread [repost]
four key principles that make information more memorable;
why word of mouth is more than 10 times as powerful as traditional advertising;
how triggers in the environment can influence everything from what we buy to how we vote;
which types of sales messaging drives consumers to act; and
why your looser social ties are more likely to help you find a job than closer ones.
Create Predictably Viral Word of Mouth Campaigns - Synerzip
This posting explores how an advertiser can virally spread a message by leveraging laws of social epidemics extolled in the highly acclaimed book- “Tipping Point” by Malcolm Gladwell . The book was written before social networks like Facebook and Twitter came into existence. Now it has become much easier to spread social epidemics or build up popularity of a concept by spreading “word of mouth” using social media. Towards the end, this posting explores how we can test a message on a small slice of the target population or cohort and create a predictably viral word of mouth campaign.
I'm in the marketing business and agree with much of what you say about word of mouth, however that applies to normal consumer products and services. People want to know which doctor their friends recommend or which TV has the best picture, which movie to go see, etc a recommendation from a friend goes a long way with that stuff. Voting is a different game. While I do recognize an effectiveness of word of mouth, it can also be very polarizing as it is a personal choice that many are passionate about. Both sides of this race want a landslide but reality is that we are in a close race and Clinton has an advantage. To say a Clinton victory means fraud before the votes are cast is a foolish statement. To say Trump has no chance of winning is also a foolish statement.
Yeah, the techniques that make Word of Mouth work well are polarizing as Trump "rebranding" of his opponents illustrate. Hell, only now Cruz is campaigning for him and he is still butt hurt over the whole primary thingy.
However, it does work and it goes around the establishment media very effectively.
Trump thought through this campaign very well, way ahead of time, and no one will give the guy any credit for his astonishing success in a game run by experts, dirty tricks and hatchet men.
BTW, we dont know the "reality" of what is going to happen because of the Brexit Factor. It is hilarious to hear pollsters object that they find no evidence of Brexit in their polling when THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT, duh! roflmao