If not a Bubble Bust, Then What and Why?

[william the wie]

The market has been orderly with no tripping of circuit breakers. Mark Hulbert has a nice long list of non-bubble symptoms but why an orderly retreat without any sign of a rout is not being addressed. This really strange behavior is not normal in markets. How did this transformation happen and why?

 

[Mikeoxenormous]

The market has been orderly with no tripping of circuit breakers. Mark Hulbert has a nice long list of non-bubble symptoms but why an orderly retreat without any sign of a rout is not being addressed. This really strange behavior is not normal in markets. How did this transformation happen and why?

We still have 4 trillion dollars of FAUX money that was created under QE forever that allowed the Obama admin to borrow money thus not having to go to Congress to get funding. Apple, and other uber wealthy liberal elites were borrowing those free(zero %) dollars to buy back their shares thus making their stocks more desirable, but hurting the middle class because interest rates were .01%. Now with the economic engine in full swing, and wages going up, the FED feels that it has to bring those dollars back or else inflation will go up(of course with Obama prices went up, but the FED chairbitch, fudged the numbers) to make it seem that Obama had no inflation. So we are seeing some jitters in the market because good news is bad news for the Democrats and bad news is good news for them also, but until that 4 trillion is paid for, interest rates will continue to go up, thus putting pressure on Apple to sell the shares or else pay more when rates go higher than the returns.

 

[Moonglow]

The market has been orderly with no tripping of circuit breakers. Mark Hulbert has a nice long list of non-bubble symptoms but why an orderly retreat without any sign of a rout is not being addressed. This really strange behavior is not normal in markets. How did this transformation happen and why?

Trump environment...

 

[Moonglow]

The market has been orderly with no tripping of circuit breakers. Mark Hulbert has a nice long list of non-bubble symptoms but why an orderly retreat without any sign of a rout is not being addressed. This really strange behavior is not normal in markets. How did this transformation happen and why?

We still have 4 trillion dollars of FAUX money that was created under QE forever that allowed the Obama admin to borrow money thus not having to go to Congress to get funding. Apple, and other uber wealthy liberal elites were borrowing those free(zero %) dollars to buy back their shares thus making their stocks more desirable, but hurting the middle class because interest rates were .01%. Now with the economic engine in full swing, and wages going up, the FED feels that it has to bring those dollars back or else inflation will go up(of course with Obama prices went up, but the FED chairbitch, fudged the numbers) to make it seem that Obama had no inflation. So we are seeing some jitters in the market because good news is bad news for the Democrats and bad news is good news for them also, but until that 4 trillion is paid for, interest rates will continue to go up, thus putting pressure on Apple to sell the shares or else pay more when rates go higher than the returns.

What was the inflation during Oblama? Prices fluctuate but the biggest concern during Oblama was deflation...

 

[peach174]

The market has been orderly with no tripping of circuit breakers. Mark Hulbert has a nice long list of non-bubble symptoms but why an orderly retreat without any sign of a rout is not being addressed. This really strange behavior is not normal in markets. How did this transformation happen and why?

Trump knows how the market works, our congress by a large majority don't.
Trumps actions caused a market sore.
Everyone made large profits.
Now its adjusting but people now have the initial cushion to Handel the downs.
Stock Market Still Strong! :: The Market Oracle ::

 

[BuckToothMoron]

The market has been orderly with no tripping of circuit breakers. Mark Hulbert has a nice long list of non-bubble symptoms but why an orderly retreat without any sign of a rout is not being addressed. This really strange behavior is not normal in markets. How did this transformation happen and why?

We still have 4 trillion dollars of FAUX money that was created under QE forever that allowed the Obama admin to borrow money thus not having to go to Congress to get funding. Apple, and other uber wealthy liberal elites were borrowing those free(zero %) dollars to buy back their shares thus making their stocks more desirable, but hurting the middle class because interest rates were .01%. Now with the economic engine in full swing, and wages going up, the FED feels that it has to bring those dollars back or else inflation will go up(of course with Obama prices went up, but the FED chairbitch, fudged the numbers) to make it seem that Obama had no inflation. So we are seeing some jitters in the market because good news is bad news for the Democrats and bad news is good news for them also, but until that 4 trillion is paid for, interest rates will continue to go up, thus putting pressure on Apple to sell the shares or else pay more when rates go higher than the returns.

The market has lost about a trillion of those QE dollars with this recent fall.

 

[william the wie]

The hype economy, not just Apple and Amazon, is likely to shrink drastically.

 

[Pete7469]

As I recall there has been talk of a "correction" for a couple years now. I'm not surprised to see a downturn, I will be surprised if it's a long term thing. I'm confident that in about a month it will be forgotten.

 

[william the wie]

As I recall there has been talk of a "correction" for a couple years now. I'm not surprised to see a downturn, I will be surprised if it's a long term thing. I'm confident that in about a month it will be forgotten.

I would prefer six weeks myself.

 

[Mikeoxenormous]

The hype economy, not just Apple and Amazon, is likely to shrink drastically.

You do realize that the DOW just had increased 9,000 points since President Trump took over. With the 1,500 drop, that is only 1/6th of the gains for the year? With the businesses coming back to the US bringing their billions with them, the economy will adjust then start to go up again. Even with the FED increasing interest rates, money will continue to flow. Except for the liberal welfare queens who will still be victims of liberalism.

 

[william the wie]

The hype economy, not just Apple and Amazon, is likely to shrink drastically.

You do realize that the DOW just had increased 9,000 points since President Trump took over. With the 1,500 drop, that is only 1/6th of the gains for the year? With the businesses coming back to the US bringing their billions with them, the economy will adjust then start to go up again. Even with the FED increasing interest rates, money will continue to flow. Except for the liberal welfare queens who will still be victims of liberalism.

I think we are seeing positioning to avoid the collapse of the Blue Wall but that is just my read.

 

[william the wie]

There are purportedly about five trillion on the sidelines waiting to jump in when the carnage is over.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

As I recall there has been talk of a "correction" for a couple years now. I'm not surprised to see a downturn, I will be surprised if it's a long term thing. I'm confident that in about a month it will be forgotten.

I would prefer six weeks myself.

I wouldn’t be surprised in the market ends up down or flattish for all of 2018.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

There are purportedly about five trillion on the sidelines waiting to jump in when the carnage is over.

There is also a record amount of margin debt, $643 billion, up $113 billion in 2017. There was $466 billion added to ETF’s in 2017. Almost $80 billion of new money in the market in January. Would like to read what you read regarding the $5 trillion waiting in the wings.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Woolly Thinkers Getting Fleeced

All the rise was in there in anticipation of the tax cuts. The Wall Street fixers let it rise further when suckers outside the loop came in only after the tax cuts were passed.

 

[william the wie]

There are purportedly about five trillion on the sidelines waiting to jump in when the carnage is over.

There is also a record amount of margin debt, $643 billion, up $113 billion in 2017. There was $466 billion added to ETF’s in 2017. Almost $80 billion of new money in the market in January. Would like to read what you read regarding the $5 trillion waiting in the wings.

Didn't read it, heard it on Bloomberg 2T repatriation solid. the other 3+ deals with a series of various contingent money funds:

WTO compliant tariffs arising out of TPP dumping complaints 2 +. (This is already happening.)

post-Brexit UK-US trade deal. British firms do not get taxed for overseas earnings by the UK. 1-2

Post-NAFTA negotiations deal something like 4 T if NAFTA survives in Something like current form but that money will be spread over 3 countries. If it does not survive the US should get investment mostly through repatriation of firms and plants. 1-2 T

But except for M&A this will not go directly into the stock/bond market. This money will go mostly into investment and payroll and then into the equities markets. That route will lead to higher dividend rates and a much less leveraged market. For example, I am "invested " in writing puts on low tech with a grand total of something like $200 in portfoilio losses and a $2,000 option writing if the good news keeps coming until March expiration. Current losses seem to have two causes unrelated to the real economy: stocks that are levitating through hype and uncertainty about trade negotiation outcomes.

 

[Circe]

I think we are seeing positioning to avoid the collapse of the Blue Wall but that is just my read.

I'm not sure what you mean by collapse of the Blue Wall?

 

[Circe]

I'm satisfied it's just the bubble bursting --- It went up so fast! I remember when the Dow crossed from 25,000 to 26,000 -- in two weeks -- and I thought, "Oh, yay...........oh, wait a moment, let's think about this." No, 19,000 to 26,600 since Election Day? It's been fun, but let's not get too crazy.

Well, that was a correction. I bet it shortly recovers and keeps going up: hopefully more slowly this time.

 

[william the wie]

Affordability and/or prices are collapsing due to higher interest rates and rent control in Democrat controlled states.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

State mandated rent control? Dude!