If a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth,we started the Biden recession yesterday, -1.4% in Q1 and -2.1% in Q2.

[Faun]

And right on cue, the White House is redefining recession:

The White House is not redefining it. That definition has been around for many years. Here's an article on NBER.org from 1997 about it...

Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Business Cycle Expansion and contraction dates for the United States Economy

web.archive.org

 

[BluesLegend]

Biden tards are already claiming it's not a real recession. Just as they claimed inflation was transitory, followed by 13 straight months of sky high inflation.

 

[Circe]

The second quarter growth rate has yet to be published but here you are overjoyed that the USA is in recession on July 2nd, no less.

Are you such a partisan hack that you want to wish ill on your nation to help promote Republicans????? Party over country with this cult, no matter happens to your nation or your people.

THIS is why Republicans are such abject political failures.

It IS the Biden Democrats that are doing this recession, with their lockdowns and all the bad stuff going on.

Hey, we don't make the news, we just report it. It is obvious recession is coming, WITH inflation as an added extra.

Let's see, when does the July inflation count come out ---- sometime in August. It's been going up steadily.

 

[Circe]

Biden tards are already claiming it's not a real recession. Just as they claimed inflation was transitory, followed by 13 straight months of sky high inflation.

They did mess up on the stupid "no inflation here" comments. It's NOTNOTNOT sky high, though: I read a whole book on the 1923 German hyperinflation and we do NOT want that. There's nothing like hyperinflation, and some countries (Zimbabwe, Argentina, others) just can't seem to leave it behind.

Our inflation went from 8% when we started getting nervous, to 9% the next month, and I am very interested in what the July rate will be, 10%? You can see that if it goes up 1% a month, it will be 15% by the end of the year. The Carter inflation was only 13% at the high, as I recall. This would be worse, and that was plenty bad as I remember. We paid on an 11.3% mortgage then.

I am really worried about it escalating faster than 1% a month --- that's what brings hyperinflation. I think the Fed is moving heaven and earth to stop it ----- since the German government in 1923 deliberately CAUSED it (so the French could not profit from having invaded the Ruhr area and trying to get the coal: every single miner struck and refused to work and the German government printed paper money to support them. There were a lot of people in the Ruhr: it quickly went out of control.) it's good our Fed is trying to STOP it. So good luck to them.

 

[Burgermeister]

More of the same.

Liberal Economics

 

[Nostra]

The White House is not redefining it. That definition has been around for many years. Here's an article on NBER.org from 1997 about it...

Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Business Cycle Expansion and contraction dates for the United States Economy

web.archive.org

The definition may have been around for a while, but it hasn’t been used, Simp.

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP = Recession.

none of your Dimtard spin will change that.

 

[Faun]

The definition may have been around for a while, but it hasn’t been used, Simp.

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP = Recession.

none of your Dimtard spin will change that.

Of course it's been used.

US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

www.nber.org

In 2001, we had a recession despite not having two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Then again, one started in December, 2007, and lasted until June, 2006, despite positive growth in Q2-2008 following just one quarter of negative growth in Q1-2008

https://apps.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xlsx

As always, you prove to be a glutton for punishment who seemingly enjoys getting bitch-slapped by others.

 

[Dragonlady]

It IS the Biden Democrats that are doing this recession, with their lockdowns and all the bad stuff going on.

Hey, we don't make the news, we just report it. It is obvious recession is coming, WITH inflation as an added extra.

Let's see, when does the July inflation count come out ---- sometime in August. It's been going up steadily.

Governments don't "do recessions". No government EVER sets out to cause a recession. Recessions happen when the economy becomes too overheated, when prices rise beyond people's ability to pay, and supply exceeds demand. Then the economy corrects and contracts.

The government can raise interest rates making bond yields higher than stock market profits, and encouraging saving rather than investing. They can freeze wages or prices or both. They can stimulate the economy with tax cuts in a recession, or with deficit spending.

The problem with the American economy at the moment is that Trump cut taxes and increased the deficit in an economic boom, and that will make the recession that followed such a stupid stunt, longer and deeper than it otherwise would have been.

Biden seems to be coping with the economy well, but the continuing waves of covid in red states aren't going to help much. It'll be interesting to see the inflation numbers for July.

 

[Circe]

Governments don't "do recessions". No government EVER sets out to cause a recession. Recessions happen when the economy becomes too overheated, when prices rise beyond people's ability to pay, and supply exceeds demand. Then the economy corrects and contracts.

Nonsense, governments OFTEN set out to cause a recession: never heard of the "Greenspan put"? And that was only the most recent one of two more I can think of just in this country. Germany certainly did it on purpose in 1923, and that one was a whopper. Led to the rise of Hitler, of course.

Biden seems to be coping with the economy well, but the continuing waves of covid in red states aren't going to help much. It'll be interesting to see the inflation numbers for July.

I will also be very interested in seeing the inflation numbers for July. Biden, of course, will have had nothing to do with ameliorating the recession and inflation if it does improve: that will be wholly the independent Federal Reserve. Biden is the problem, not the solution. The more his administration pumps up the panic about pandemics, the worse the economy will get: I notice they have downplayed Biden catching Covid himself. That means everything they told us is a lie --- vaccinations, boosters, masks, etc., etc., but we already knew that.

 

[johngaltshrugged]

What are you talking about?
These are estimates from the Atlanta Fed.
How can they be off if the actual numbers are not in yet?

I know reading comprehension is not a priority for lefties but surely even you can realize I was talking about estimates & the giant discrepancies in what they predicted early in the qtr & where they currently stand now?
I don't have a coloring book for you to follow along but maybe you can ask your mom for more info?

 

[Sandisk]

I know reading comprehension is not a priority for lefties but surely even you can realize I was talking about estimates & the giant discrepancies in what they predicted early in the qtr & where they currently stand now?
I don't have a coloring book for you to follow along but maybe you can ask your mom for more info?

Congrats - you are 2/2 now in ridiculous posts that make NO sense.

1) I am not a lefty (or a righty). And if you had read any of my other posts in this thread - that would be OBVIOUS.
2) what the 'f' is your point?
You are making NO SENSE.
3) your post shows that you clearly have no idea what the GDPNow is or how they reach their numbers.

Of course the numbers change as the quarter's go on.
As each new piece of economic data comes in?
They modify the GDP growth of the country.
Got it yet?

 

[AntonToo]

Buckle up. We are fucked.

The Fed went from a Q2 estimate of -1% Thursday to -2.1% yesterday.

That is the classic definition of a recession. Congrats everyone.

https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf

Lets read your link togather, shal we?

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed.

Hmm what do you think that means?

 

[Nostra]

Of course it's been used.

US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

www.nber.org

In 2001, we had a recession despite not having two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Then again, one started in December, 2007, and lasted until June, 2006, despite positive growth in Q2-2008 following just one quarter of negative growth in Q1-2008

https://apps.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xlsx

As always, you prove to be a glutton for punishment who seemingly enjoys getting bitch-slapped by others.

Then again, one started in December, 2007, and lasted until June, 2006,

That isn’t possible, you blithering idiot.

 

[basquebromance]

/thread

 

[johngaltshrugged]

Congrats - you are 2/2 now in ridiculous posts that make NO sense.

1) I am not a lefty (or a righty). And if you had read any of my other posts in this thread - that would be OBVIOUS.
2) what the 'f' is your point?
You are making NO SENSE.
3) your post shows that you clearly have no idea what the GDPNow is or how they reach their numbers.

Of course the numbers change as the quarter's go on.
As each new piece of economic data comes in?
They modify the GDP growth of the country.
Got it yet?

Wow, you come up with that all on your own or did moms' help out? Wanna teach me more about economics & forecasts, Captain Obvious?

What is your point? They released a very unrealistic progjection & then had to make massive revisions as reality started to sink in. It was a case of gaslighting the public until forced to acknowledge the obvious.
I point out how bad they are at the job because they were so far off.
I'm not wrong & you want to deflect with a strawman argument

 

[Sandisk]

Wow, you come up with that all on your own or did moms' help out? Wanna teach me more about economics & forecasts, Captain Obvious?

What is your point? They released a very unrealistic progjection & then had to make massive revisions as reality started to sink in. It was a case of gaslighting the public until forced to acknowledge the obvious.
I point out how bad they are at the job because they were so far off.
I'm not wrong & you want to deflect with a strawman argument


View attachment 674556

Your posts are pathetic.
You clearly have NO IDEA how the GDPNow even works.
And your writing is for shit.

HELLO?
As the weeks/months go on during a quarter?
The economy gets better or worse.
Thus, the GDP growth rate gets altered.
Sometimes it goes up and sometimes it goes down.

Show US ALL a link to a respected, GDP growth, prediction service that does NOT have their GDP forecast fluctuate - sometimes wildly - during a quarter?

 

[Mac1958]

2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth = Recession.

Silly, predictable, tedious, ignorant, dishonest partisan politicking and finger-pointing about the causes from either or both parties notwithstanding.

Politics poisons everything.

 

[ColonelAngus]

Cult, pretend Trump was President, then you would call it the Trump recession…so suck a BIG FAT scoby.

 

[Faun]

Then again, one started in December, 2007, and lasted until June, 2006,

That isn’t possible, you blithering idiot.

LOL

Yeah, meant 2009, not 2006, as shown in the link I posted.

Doesn't help you since I provided two instances where we were in a recession without 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

You know, the thing you insisted did not happen.

 

[basquebromance]

predicting what's gonna happen in the economy is like predicting who will win the Superbowl

it makes no sense, it's not scientific, my friends!