I think Trump can win the election though I think he's the Republican candidate most likely to lose the election.
The truth is, he won the 2016 election by 77,000 votes in swing states but lost the 2020 election by 44,000 votes in the swing states. IOW, the margins are very narrow.
There is no other Republican candidate that motivates the other side to come out and vote against Republicans. People will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. That's why he lost in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
Biden is unpopular. He's old. Even Democrats don't want him. A generic Republican candidate can beat him.
But Trump? Highly unlikely.