How much lithium is needed to replace all internal combustion engines in the world?

[ding]

If there were, do you think there would be a 100% replacement of all existing and future ICE vehicles?

WW

So in other words you don't even know if it's possible? Wouldn't that be the first thing you would do?

 

[WorldWatcher]

So in other words you don't even know if it's possible? Wouldn't that be the first thing you would do?

I already know that it's not possible to replace all existing ICE vehicles, stop production of ICE vehicles, and build replacements for them all.

So ya, a calculation such as the op would be a waste of time and therefore not the thing I'd do.

Especially since it omits important variables that would give you better indications of the need for lithium including:

• The uses of lithium in the coming years,
• Continued use of ICE engines in appropriate situations,
• Where that lithium can be sourced, and
• Changes in production and recycling of lithium as a source for raw material.

WW

 

[ding]

I already know that it's not possible to replace all existing ICE vehicles, stop production of ICE vehicles, and build replacements for them all.

So ya, a calculation such as the op would be a waste of time and therefore not the thing I'd do.

No. You assumed it. You didn't know it. To know it requires proof. And for the record this doesn't prove it can't be done. It merely established the requirement for doing it. The best I can say about it at this time is that it does not appear to be practical to do it. I totally leave the door open for someone to show me a plan for how it can be done. I'm not a monster.

 

[ding]

Especially since it omits important variables that would give you better indications of the need for lithium including:

• The uses of lithium in the coming years,
• Continued use of ICE engines in appropriate situations,
• Where that lithium can be sourced, and
• Changes in production and recycling of lithium as a source for raw material.

Great. Like I said before, do the math. Show me.

 

[WorldWatcher]

Great. Like I said before, do the math. Show me.

X = Percent Chance that all manufacturing of ICE vehicles will cease and that 100% of all ICE currently in existence will be replaced by EVs in the near future.

X = <100%


WW

 

[ding]

X = Percent Chance that all manufacturing of ICE vehicles will cease and that 100% of all ICE currently in existence will be replaced by EVs in the near future.

X = <100%


WW

You didn't really show your work there.

 

[WorldWatcher]

You didn't really show your work there.

I know. There is no real work to show.

As I said, you math is probably valid, but until you account for the market variables driving the need for lithium, the number you arrive at has no value.

WW

 

[ding]

I know. There is no real work to show.

As I said, you math is probably valid, but until you account for the market variables driving the need for lithium, the number you arrive at has no value.

WW

Other than establishing the minimum amount of lithium needed to replace the equivalence of 65 million barrels of gasoline and diesel. I agree. That was the only point of the OP. Glad you agree with it.

 

[WorldWatcher]

Other than establishing the minimum amount of lithium needed to replace the equivalence of 65 million barrels of gasoline and diesel. I agree. That was the only point of the OP. Glad you agree with it.

Which is my point. You don't need provide enough lithium for the question: "How much lithium is needed to replace all internal combustion engines in the world?"

The question should be "How much lithium is needed to meet projected needs in over the next 50 years and where will it come from?"

And you math to transpose that into barrels per day is meaningless since will be essentially impossible to eliminate future need for some ICE vehicles and to replace all existing ICE vehicles.

So ya, I agree your math (while it may be correct) is meaningless.

WW

 

[ding]

Which is my point. You don't need provide enough lithium for the question: "How much lithium is needed to replace all internal combustion engines in the world?"

The question should be "How much lithium is needed to meet projected needs in over the next 50 years and where will it come from?"

And you math to transpose that into barrels per day is meaningless since will be essentially impossible to eliminate future need for some ICE vehicles and to replace all existing ICE vehicles.

So ya, I agree your math (while it may be correct) is meaningless.

WW

Then you should create an OP for that point. Because the point of this OP was about calculating the minimum amount of lithium needed to replace the equivalence of 65 million barrels of gasoline and diesel.

 

[Circe]

How much gasoline was needed to replace all horse drawn carriages in the world?​

Right. And it was IMPOSSIBLE that cars would take over because ---- there were no gas stations!! In the old classic mysteries I read from the 1920s, people normally carried gas cans tied onto the back of their cars. NOT safe, but they had to. It was obvious they should all just give up and get a horse.

I think that's what is going on now. We'll grow into electric cars, and it will take 20 years, same as it did for automobiles.

 

[ding]

So ya, I agree your math (while it may be correct) is meaningless.

Other than establishing the amount of lithium required to build enough batteries to provide the equivalent energy of 65 million barrels of gasoline and oil which by the way is 18 trillion kg of lithium.

 

[WorldWatcher]

Then you should create an OP for that point. Because the point of this OP was about calculating the minimum amount of lithium needed to replace the equivalence of 65 million barrels of gasoline and diesel.

Actually the title of your OP is about replacing all ICE vehicles.

But even transitioning to 65m BOPD based on gas/diesel consumption is still incorrect because because it assumes that BOPD dedicated to gas/diesel would go to 0 BOPD as EVs would replace 100% of that consumption. A faulty premise as ICE engines will still be operational for decades to come so your lithium measurement is a for a hypothetical that will never be valid.

WW

 

[Crick]

Other than establishing the amount of lithium required to build enough batteries to provide the equivalent energy of 65 million barrels of gasoline and oil which by the way is 18 trillion kg of lithium.

There is no such calculation required. This is more of your energy source/energy storage confusion. All you need to do is figure out how much lithium one car needs and count the number of cars in the world.

 

[Rigby5]

Right. And it was IMPOSSIBLE that cars would take over because ---- there were no gas stations!! In the old classic mysteries I read from the 1920s, people normally carried gas cans tied onto the back of their cars. NOT safe, but they had to. It was obvious they should all just give up and get a horse.

I think that's what is going on now. We'll grow into electric cars, and it will take 20 years, same as it did for automobiles.

I disagree. EVs just make no sense. Batteries are too heavy, too expensive, too slow to recharge, too inefficient, and pollute more than some cars. Battery EVs pollute at the equivalent of an ICE car that gets 29 mpg.
We would have to triple our electrical production, and there is no way to do that.
We use coal and natural gas to produce electricity now, and it would be cheaper to just use the coal and gas to produce gasoline,

But if one wants a compact energy storage that is absolutely clean, then hydrogen is the way to go.

 

[Rigby5]

There is no such calculation required. This is more of your energy source/energy storage confusion. All you need to do is figure out how much lithium one car needs and count the number of cars in the world.

I tend to agree.
Using the amount of oil drilled daily does not work because about half the oil is used for plastics, fertilizer, etc.
And the lithium is reused over and over, while the oil is not.

 

[ding]

Actually the title of your OP is about replacing all ICE vehicles.

Actually it says, "all internal combustion engines in the world."

Because that's what uses gasoline and diesel which is what the calculation is based upon.

 

[ding]

Actually the title of your OP is about replacing all ICE vehicles.

But even transitioning to 65m BOPD based on gas/diesel consumption is still incorrect because because it assumes that BOPD dedicated to gas/diesel would go to 0 BOPD as EVs would replace 100% of that consumption. A faulty premise as ICE engines will still be operational for decades to come so your lithium measurement is a for a hypothetical that will never be valid.

WW

It's based upon today numbers. Which starts with 88 million bopd, then looks at the refined gasoline and diesel which is 65 million barrels per day.

The OP makes no assumptions whatsoever about future outcomes. It merely calculates the amount of lithium needed to hold that charge for one day which is 110.7 tWh.

 

[ding]

There is no such calculation required. This is more of your energy source/energy storage confusion. All you need to do is figure out how much lithium one car needs and count the number of cars in the world.

I'm sure you wish there wasn't but there it is. 110.7 tWh is the amount of energy that needs to be stored by batteries to eliminate burning gasoline and diesel.

 

[Rigby5]

Whether you store the energy as batteries, gasoline, hydrogen, etc., makes little difference.
The problem is still finding the energy in the first place, and there is not going to be any source of energy in the future, once fossil fuels run out, unless we want to build hundreds of nuclear power plants or something like that?