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....How many Russians?......

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Chillicothe

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War Stories are starting to fill the news channels.......print, broadcast, cable, and internet. Even Iwo Jima gets a shout out.

This reportage from the New York Times offers what appears to credible views of what is happening.

Here's a taster of a long article published on the 16th. Go to google or your online subscription to get all of it.
(emphasis added by my avatar)
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As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale Becomes an Issue, Officials Say

WASHINGTON — In 36 days of fighting on Iwo Jima during World War II, nearly 7,000 Marines were killed. Now, 20 days after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invaded Ukraine, his military has already lost more soldiers, according to American intelligence estimates.

The conservative side of the estimate, at more than 7,000 Russian troop deaths, is greater than the number of American troops killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

It is a staggering number amassed in just three weeks of fighting, American officials say, with implications for the combat effectiveness of Russian units, including soldiers in tank formations.

With more than 150,000 Russian troops now involved in the war in Ukraine, Russian casualties, when including the estimated 14,000 to 21,000 injured, are near that level. And the Russian military has also lost at least three generals in the fight, according to Ukrainian, NATO and Russian officials.

The American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, caution that their numbers of Russian troop deaths are inexact, compiled through analysis of the news media, Ukrainian figures (which tend to be high, with the latest at 13,500), Russian figures (which tend to be low, with the latest at 498), satellite imagery and careful perusal of video images of Russian tanks and troops that come under fire.

American military and intelligence officials know, for instance, how many troops are usually in a tank, and can extrapolate from that the number of casualties when an armored vehicle is hit by, say, a Javelin anti-tank missile.

The high rate of casualties goes far to explain why Russia’s much-vaunted force has remained largely stalled outside of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

“Losses like this affect morale and unit cohesion, especially since these soldiers don’t understand why they’re fighting,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon....


With Russian ground forces in disarray, Mr. Putin has increasingly looked to the skies to attack Ukrainian cities, residential buildings, hospitals and even schools. That aerial bombardment, officials say, has helped camouflage the Russian military’s poor performance on the ground. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said this week that an estimated 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the war.

Signs of Russia’s challenges abound. Late last week, Russian news sources reported that Mr. Putin had put two of his top intelligence officials under house arrest. The officials, who run the Fifth Service of Russia’s main intelligence service, the FSB, were interrogated for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, according to Andrei Soldatov, a Russian security services expert.

“They were in charge of providing political intelligence and cultivating networks of support in Ukraine,” Mr. Soldatov said in an interview. “They told Putin what he wanted to hear” about how the invasion would progress.

Russians themselves may be hearing only what Mr. Putin wants them to hear about his “operation” in Ukraine, which he refuses to call a war or an invasion. Since it began, he has exerted iron control over the news outlets in Russia; state media is not publicizing most casualties, and has minimized the destruction.

But some Russians have access to virtual private networks (VPNs) and are able to get news from the West.

“I don’t believe he can wall off, indefinitely, Russians from the truth,” William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, told the Senate last Thursday.

The news of the generals’ deaths is trickling out, first from Ukrainians, then confirmed by NATO officials, with one death acknowledged by Mr. Putin in a speech. They have been identified as Maj. Gen. Andrei Kolesnikov, a commander from Russia’s eastern military district; Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army; and Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army.

Western officials say that around 20 Russian generals were in Ukraine as part of the war effort, and that they may have pushed closer to the front to boost morale.
“Three generals already — that’s a shocking number,” Michael McFaul, the former United States ambassador to Russia, said in an interview.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials reported that a fourth general, Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev, the commander of the 150th motorized rifle division, had been killed in fighting.

Two American military officials said that many Russian generals are talking on unsecured phones and radios. In at least one instance, they said, the Ukrainians intercepted a general’s call, geolocated it, and attacked his location, killing him and his staff.

If Russian military deaths continue to rise, the kinds of civic organizations that called attention to troop deaths and injuries during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan could once more come to prominence.

But the Russian toll, some military specialists and lawmakers say, is unlikely to change Mr. Putin’s strategy.

“I don’t think it’ll have an impact on Putin’s calculus,” Mr. Crow said. “He is not willing to lose. He’s been backed into a corner and will continue to throw troops at the problem.”
 

airplanemechanic

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I talked to my friend Boris online who is in the mighty Russian army fighting to free the Ukrainian people.
He said they are killing Ukrainian insurgents and piling them up like huge stacks of cordwood. They are unskilled, untrained amature fighters and we just mow them down. We feel sad they are dying for the criminal Zelensky and his lies.

Is that why Russia is asking China for help and why in 3 weeks they have failed to take one large city and are now taking DEFENSIVE positions?
 

Sunni Man

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Sunni Man

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why in 3 weeks they have failed to take one large city and are now taking DEFENSIVE positions?
Russian army doctrine since WWll is to surround a city and use artillery to pound it into rubble and starve the population until they surrender.
Which is exactly what the Russians are currently doing to several large Ukrainian cities. ... :cool-45:
 

blackhawk

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In war both sides exaggerate the damage they have done to the other didn't start with this one wont end with it.
 

miketx

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It is war over there.....in Ukraine.
And, it is oft said that in war the first casualty is the truth.

I dunno if that is true or not.

But there are folks who are truly interested in the cost in blood Russia is paying for their invasion of Russia.
Today's (3-17-22) New York Times offers us this:


"A staggering number of Russian troop deaths"​

"More than 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in just three weeks of fighting in Ukraine, according to conservative estimates from U.S. intelligence. That’s more than the number of U.S. troops killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
Among those killed were three Russian generals, according to Ukrainian and NATO officials. Ukrainian officials reported yesterday that a fourth general had been killed.
U.S. officials say such high numbers have implications for the combat effectiveness of Russian units. A 10 percent casualty rate for a single unit, including dead and wounded, renders it unable to carry out combat-related tasks, according to Pentagon officials, who say Russian casualties are near that level.
Two U.S. military officials said that many Russian generals are talking on unsecured phones and radios. In at least one instance, they said, the Ukrainians intercepted a general’s call, geolocated it, and attacked his position, killing him and his staff. Some Russian troops are also reportedly deserting because of low morale; one recent U.S. intelligence report described soldiers parking their vehicles and walking off into the woods.
The high rate of casualties goes far to explain why Russia’s much-vaunted force has remained largely stalled outside of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. With Russian ground forces in disarray, Moscow’s military strategists have increasingly turned to aerial bombardment, at a horrific cost to civilians.
The Wall Street Journal analyzed a two-day battle in Voznesensk, a town in southern Ukraine, during the early days of the war. Ukrainian forces, including local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3."
Why do you believe anything they tell you?
 
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Chillicothe

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"Why do you believe anything they tell you?"

Ummm?
First, I am not at all sure that a poster who self-identifies as 'Big Tits Matter' possesses enough gravitas to productively contribute here.

Nonetheless, let us persist.

So, the good poster with the 'BigTit' fetish....asks why that poor avatar I employ "believes" the reportage provided the forum.

That is a sad misread by that poster.
My avatar is merely 'reporting' what others have reported.
We earnestly attempted to signal that when the reportages were posted up.
Believing or not believing......was left to the reader.

We regret if some did not understand....or read....the posted reportages, regardless of whatever fetish-du-jour fascinates 'em.
 

miketx

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Ummm?
First, I am not at all sure that a poster who self-identifies as 'Big Tits Matter' possesses enough gravitas to productively contribute here.

Nonetheless, let us persist.

So, the good poster with the 'BigTit' fetish....asks why that poor avatar I employ "believes" the reportage provided the forum.

That is a sad misread by that poster.
My avatar is merely 'reporting' what others have reported.
We earnestly attempted to signal that when the reportages were posted up.
Believing or not believing......was left to the reader.

We regret if some did not understand....or read....the posted reportages, regardless of whatever fetish-du-jour fascinates 'em.
I don't identify as my avatar, ya media fed faggot.
 
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Chillicothe

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I don't identify as my avatar
Ummm, mein freund.......YOU chose the avatar identity, even providing the graphic for it.
Nobody chose it or posted it for you.
It's on you.
Duh!
 

whitehall

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That's what it takes to capture an entire country in a month. We lost 50,000 Americans in ten years in Vietnam and they ended up kicking us out. The same liberal kids who chanted "better red than dead" during the Vietnam conflict are in charge today and you can't trust the numbers or the propaganda.
 
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Chillicothe

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The same liberal kids who chanted "better red than dead" during the Vietnam conflict are in charge today and you can't trust the numbers or the propaganda.
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Ah, I don't know that those "liberal kids" are represented in the "in charge" cohort anymore than those who supported the war, fought in the war, or were just too busy going to school or in first jobs to be activists for or against it.

So, poster 'whitehall' you make the declaration that it is your liberal-chanters who run things.......well, why do you say such?
How do you know?
Can you share vetting or substantiation of the assertions you make here?

Batter up, my friend.
 
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Chillicothe

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For those who have more than a 'headline'-interest in this Ukraine thing, well, tonight's Politico offered quite interesting reportage of an interview with an individual they assert is highly informed on the Russian military.

Politico is a 'no paywall' site....and you can access it readily.

Here's a taster paragraph with it's headlilne.
And a link to read the whole thing.

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The Next 2 Weeks Could Determine the Fate of Ukraine

Russian military expert Michael Kofman lays out why Putin’s invasion hasn’t succeeded yet — but why it still might.

What did experts get wrong — and what does it mean for the next phase of the war? Michael Kofman, one of the most prominent U.S. authorities on the Russian military, told POLITICO in a lengthy interview that he and other experts “generally overestimated the Russian military, which is good. It’s very good.” And, he adds, “we really underestimated the Ukrainian military.”

 
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Chillicothe

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From today's Associated Press reportage --- (very similar reportge was also in today's Wall Street Journal):

"NATO: 7,000 to 15,000 Russian troops dead in Ukraine"

"The NATO official said 30,000 to 40,000 Russian soldiers are estimated to have been killed or wounded. In its last update, Russia said March 2 that nearly 500 soldiers had been killed and almost 1,600 wounded.

NATO estimated on Wednesday that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in four weeks of war in Ukraine, where fierce resistance from the country’s defenders has denied Moscow the lightning victory it sought.

By way of comparison, Russia lost about 15,000 troops over 10 years in Afghanistan.

Ukraine also claims to have killed six Russian generals. Russia acknowledges just one dead general.

The figures from NATO represent the alliance’s first public estimate of Russian casualties since the war began. The US government has largely declined to provide estimates of Russian or Ukrainian casualties……..

A senior NATO military official said the alliance’s estimate was based on information from Ukrainian authorities, what Russia has released — intentionally or not — and intelligence gathered from open sources. The official spoke on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by NATO."
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It's war.
And what is true is hard to ascertain.

But reportage from a wide range of sources over the last 30 days seemingly indicates Russia got surprised. And they are paying a price that they may not have anticipated paying. Certainly a higher price than what western analysts projected they would have to pay.

Every few days the Russian KIA count jumps higher. And now the UN saw fit to release what numbers they have sourced. 30,000 to 40,000 KIA+WIA. I don't follow this stuff closely so haven't yet seen any number ascribed to Russian MIA. Surely there are captured and deserters that ratchet the 'casualties' even higher.

If you've seen any of the many YouTube videos of attacks on Russians you are aware of the carnage inflicted on the bodies of soldiers and equipment.

Sure, there an awful lot of dead Ukranian civilians too. Western journalists have paid a lot of attention to the tragedy among civilians.
 

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Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries on earth. You will never get a honest statement from them.
If you don't count RUSSIA and all those more corrupt countries.

In fact the further away from Russia they get...the LESS corrupt they get
 

Lesh

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Russia is getting absolutely smacked.

More dead than in Afghanistan
 
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Chillicothe

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On tonight's PBS Newshour there was an interesting comment from one of the reporters or panelists, I forget which. Anyway, the comment was this: (paraphrased) "We may be seeing the end of tank warfare".....
Today's anti-tank man-portable weaponry is so powerful it may neutralize the tank's former effectiveness.

I thought that was an interesting insight.
Lord knows, we are seeing an awful lot of burnt out hardware allegedly smacked by Javelins or the Brit weapon. And YouTube will bury you in videos of rocket hits on tanks and other armored vehicles.
So, the comment on 'end of tanks' will be an interesting issue to follow.

Also on tonight's Newshour there was reportage that Ukranians have found about 300 civilian bodies inside a theatre housing refugees.....after it was deliberately bombed by the Russians in Mariupol.

War, of course, is ugly. Dangerous too.

At this point, I cannot see how Russia can emerge from this debacle as a better stronger country. Sure, capturing the natural resources of portions of Ukraine will help Russia fill its granaries and it's manufacturer's raw material inventories....but, there is now a growing consensus that Russia has had over 10,000 KIA, some say 15,000. If true, that is a big hit.

For comparison ---- Iwo Jima cost America about 6,800 over 35 days. The Battle of the Bulge had about 19,000 dead GI's in 41 days. And most all adult Americans recognize those two WWII battles and their continuing echo in America's psyche and self-identity.

Russian bodies being returned home will ----if we take the Russian experience of their casualties in Afghanistan as a lesson -----will cause an increasing pressure on the Putin regime.

But it takes time. As sanctions take time. Grieving Russian mothers will need to self-identify, bond together, and speak out, become activists, mobilize.

Sanctions will take time to bring their inexorable pressure on either Russia's manufacturers and/or their populace. But they can be crippling.

As a comparison, an analogy.......imagine if the Taiwan and South Korean computer chip manufacturers sanctioned America and our car companies. Ergo ----no more new cars rolling off American assembly lines. It would hurt, of course. But it would take a bit of time before the real crippling impact was felt.

One would think something of that nature has got to be occurring in one or more Russian industries.
 

Admiral Rockwell Tory

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On tonight's PBS Newshour there was an interesting comment from one of the reporters or panelists, I forget which. Anyway, the comment was this: (paraphrased) "We may be seeing the end of tank warfare".....
Today's anti-tank man-portable weaponry is so powerful it may neutralize the tank's former effectiveness.

I thought that was an interesting insight.
Lord knows, we are seeing an awful lot of burnt out hardware allegedly smacked by Javelins or the Brit weapon. And YouTube will bury you in videos of rocket hits on tanks and other armored vehicles.
So, the comment on 'end of tanks' will be an interesting issue to follow.

Also on tonight's Newshour there was reportage that Ukranians have found about 300 civilian bodies inside a theatre housing refugees.....after it was deliberately bombed by the Russians in Mariupol.

War, of course, is ugly. Dangerous too.

At this point, I cannot see how Russia can emerge from this debacle as a better stronger country. Sure, capturing the natural resources of portions of Ukraine will help Russia fill its granaries and it's manufacturer's raw material inventories....but, there is now a growing consensus that Russia has had over 10,000 KIA, some say 15,000. If true, that is a big hit.

For comparison ---- Iwo Jima cost America about 6,800 over 35 days. The Battle of the Bulge had about 19,000 dead GI's in 41 days. And most all adult Americans recognize those two WWII battles and their continuing echo in America's psyche and self-identity.

Russian bodies being returned home will ----if we take the Russian experience of their casualties in Afghanistan as a lesson -----will cause an increasing pressure on the Putin regime.

But it takes time. As sanctions take time. Grieving Russian mothers will need to self-identify, bond together, and speak out, become activists, mobilize.

Sanctions will take time to bring their inexorable pressure on either Russia's manufacturers and/or their populace. But they can be crippling.

As a comparison, an analogy.......imagine if the Taiwan and South Korean computer chip manufacturers sanctioned America and our car companies. Ergo ----no more new cars rolling off American assembly lines. It would hurt, of course. But it would take a bit of time before the real crippling impact was felt.

One would think something of that nature has got to be occurring in one or more Russian industries.
You realize the Marine Corps is doing away with their tanks, transferring personnel and equipment to the Army.
 

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