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How giss manufactures warming (lots of it) in the antarctic

IanC

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a guest post over at Tallblokes Talkshop- Roger Andrews: How NASA GISS Manufactures Warming in the Antarctic « Tallbloke's Talkshop

here is how GISS manufactures a warming trend in Antarctica

antarctica_temp_trends3.png

antarctica_temp_trends4.png


The close match between GISS and me after 1955 is encouraging in that it shows that there’s at least one corner of the Earth where GISS hasn’t seriously mutilated the raw data. But GISS bumps Antarctic warming up from little or none since 1955 to two full degrees since 1900 by extending the Antarctic record back to 1904. Here’s where GISS gets the pre-1955 temperatures from:

The 1945-55 temperatures come entirely from stations on and around the Antarctic Peninsula that show much more warming than the mainland stations over the period of common record after 1955, and the 1904-44 temperatures come from a single station – Base Orcadas in the South Orkneys northeast of the Antarctic Peninsula.

Projecting temperatures from the Antarctic Peninsula over the entire the entire 64-90S latitude zone, which covers an area of 25 million square kilometers, is bad enough, and projecting temperatures from a single record like Base Orcadas over a zone this large is even worse. But it gets worse yet. The map below shows where Base Orcadas is. At 60 degrees 44 minutes south latitude IT ISN’T EVEN IN the 64-90S latitude zone. It’s in the next GISS latitude zone up – the 44-64S zone.

It’s hard to see how data manipulation in the service of global warming could get much more creative than that.

how come climate science has a different definition of science?
 

waltky

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Antarctic warming faster then first thought...
:eusa_eh:
West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate
23 December 2012 - The data from Byrd Station shows rapid warming on the west Antarctic ice sheet
A new analysis of temperature records indicates that the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet is warming nearly twice as fast as previously thought. US researchers say they found the first evidence of warming during the southern hemisphere's summer months. They are worried that the increased melting of ice as a result of warmer temperatures could contribute to sea-level rise. The study has been published in the journal Nature Geoscience. The scientists compiled data from records kept at Byrd station, established by the US in the mid-1950s and located towards the centre of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS).

Previously scientists were unable to draw any conclusions from the Byrd data as the records were incomplete. The new work used a computer model of the atmosphere and a numerical analysis method to fill in the missing observations. The results indicate an increase of 2.4C in average annual temperature between 1958 and 2010. "What we're seeing is one of the strongest warming signals on Earth," says Andrew Monaghan, a co-author and scientist at the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research. "This is the first time we've been able to determine that there's warming going on during the summer season." he added.

Top to bottom

It might be natural to expect that summers even in Antarctica would be warmer than other times of the year. But the region is so cold, it is extremely rare for temperatures to get above freezing. According to co-author Prof David Bromwich from Ohio State University, this is a critical threshold. "The fact that temperatures are rising in the summer means there's a prospect of WAIS not only being melted from the bottom as we know it is today, but in future it looks probable that it will be melting from the top as well," he said. Previous research published in Nature indicated that the WAIS is being warmed by the ocean, but this new work suggests that the atmosphere is playing a role as well.

The scientists say that the rise in temperatures has been caused by changes in winds and weather patterns coming from the Pacific Ocean. "We're seeing a more dynamic impact that's due to climate change that's occurring elsewhere on the globe translating down and increasing the heat transportation to the WAIS." said Dr Monaghan. But he was unable to say with certainty that the greater warming his team found was due to human activities. "The jury is still out on that. That piece of research has not been done. My opinion is that it probably is, but I can't say that definitively." This view was echoed by Prof Bromwich, who suggested that further study would be needed.

More BBC News - West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate
 

waltky

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Antarctic ice is melting faster...
:eusa_eh:
Scientists find Antarctic ice is melting faster
15 Apr.`13 - The summer ice melt in parts of Antarctica is at its highest level in 1,000 years, Australian and British researchers reported on Monday, adding new evidence of the impact of global warming on sensitive Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves.
Researchers from the Australian National University and the British Antarctic Survey found data taken from an ice core also shows the summer ice melt has been 10 times more intense over the past 50 years compared with 600 years ago. "It's definitely evidence that the climate and the environment is changing in this part of Antarctica," lead researcher Nerilie Abram said.

Abram and her team drilled a 364-metre (400-yard) deep ice core on James Ross Island, near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, to measure historical temperatures and compare them with summer ice melt levels in the area. They found that, while the temperatures have gradually increased by 1.6 degrees Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) over 600 years, the rate of ice melting has been most intense over the past 50 years.

2013-04-15T064418Z_1_CBRE93E0IQ700_RTROPTP_2_ANTARCTICA-WORK-PENGUINS.JPG

Ice melt shows through at a cliff face at Landsend on the coast of Cape Denison in Antarctica

That shows the ice melt can increase dramatically in climate terms once temperatures hit a tipping point. "Once your climate is at that level where it is starting to go above zero degrees, the amount of melt that will happen is very sensitive to any further increase in temperature you may have," Abram said.

Robert Mulvaney, from the British Antarctic Survey, said the stronger ice melts are likely responsible for faster glacier ice loss and some of the dramatic collapses from the Antarctic ice shelf over the past 50 years. Their research was published in the Nature Geoscience journal.

Scientists find Antarctic ice is melting faster
 
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waltky

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Warming oceans accelerating Antarctic ice melt...
:eusa_eh:
Warming Oceans Cause Bulk of Antarctic Ice Loss
June 14, 2013 - Most of the loss Antarctic ice is not caused by icebergs falling apart into the sea, but instead by warmer ocean waters underneath the massive ice shelves causing melting, according to a new study by NASA and university researchers.
The study found that so-called basal melt accounted for 55 percent of all ice shelf mass loss from 2003 to 2008. Using reconstructions of ice accumulation as well as satellite and aircraft readings of ice thickness and changes in elevations, scientists were able to compare the speed of ice shelf melt versus that of calving, or the splitting of icebergs. "The traditional view on Antarctic mass loss is it is almost entirely controlled by iceberg calving," said Eric Rignot of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "Our study shows melting from below by the ocean waters is larger, and this should change our perspective on the evolution of the ice sheet in a warming climate," said Rignot, lead author of the study to be published in the June 14 issue of the journal Science.

According to NASA, the Antarctic ice shelves lost 1,325 trillion kilograms of ice per year in 2003 to 2008 through basal melt, while calving accounted for 1,089 trillion kilograms of mass loss each year. Determining how the ice is melting will help scientists improve models on how the Antarctic ice sheet will evolve with warming ocean temperatures, including how it could contribute to sea level rise and changing ocean circulation.

68C7837A-C241-41B5-8A5D-832F1FA937D7_w640_r1_s_cx0_cy16_cw0.jpg

The ice front of Venable Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, in October 2008, is an example of a small-size ice shelf that is a large melt water producer.

"Changes in basal melting are helping to change the properties of Antarctic bottom water, which is one component of the ocean's overturning circulation," said another study author, Stan Jacobs, an oceanographer at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York. "In some areas it also impacts ecosystems by driving coastal upwelling, which brings up micronutrients like iron that fuel persistent plankton blooms in the summer."

The rate of basal melting varies around the continent. The three giant ice shelves - Ross, Filchner and Ronne, which make up two-thirds of the total Antarctic ice shelf area - accounted for only 15 percent of basal melting. Smaller ice shelves produced half of the basal melt over the period studied, NASA said. "Ice shelf melt doesn't necessarily mean an ice shelf is decaying. It can be compensated by the ice flow from the continent," Rignot said. "But in a number of places around Antarctica, ice shelves are melting too fast, and a consequence of that is glaciers, and the entire continent, are changing as well."

Warming Oceans Cause Bulk of Antarctic Ice Loss

See also:

Warm Ocean Accelerating Antarctic Ice Loss
June 14, 2013 > Summer ice loss in parts of Antarctica is at its highest in 1,000 years, according to a new study which finds that the melt is coming largely from underneath ice shelves, the floating edges of the ice sheet that extend over the ocean.
The study is the first comprehensive survey of all the Antarctic ice shelves, which are the 1.5 million square kilometers that fringe much of the frozen continent. Lead author Eric Rignot, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, says ice melt from below accounted for 55 percent of the shelf loss from 2003 to 2008, a rate much higher than previously thought. “We find that the melting of the underside of the ice shelves is even larger than the production of icebergs," Rignot said. "So it is the dominant process of ice removal in the Antarctic.”

Rignot and colleagues used satellite observations, radar and computer models to measure features above the ice to calculate what was going on below. “That includes the velocity of the ice, the thickness of the ice, how fast the freeboard [height of ice above sea level] of the ice shelf is changing with time and also how much snowfall there is on the top of the ice shelves,” Rignot said. The measurements showed regional differences around the continent. The giant ice shelves - Ross, Filchner and Ronne - make up two-thirds of Antarctica’s ice shelves, yet accounted for only 15 percent of the melting.

B8FE0080-8DD1-42DB-B99A-04901B7BCC31_w640_s.jpg

Ice front of the ice shelf in front of Pine Island Glacier, a major glacier system of West Antarctica.

Meanwhile, a dozen small ice shelves, which sit on relatively warmer water, produced half the total water from ice melt during the same period. “That means that in a regime of climate warming where the properties of the Southern Ocean are changing, they may be changing faster than other oceans in the world," Rignot said. "We may be in a situation where the coastline of Antarctica may be changing at a faster pace than we thought in the past.”

The ocean is a very sensitive system, according to Rignot, and even small shifts, like changes in ocean circulation driven by wind, can make a huge difference in ice shelf melt. “If the wind regime changes in the Southern Ocean, it is going to change the way the ocean heat is distributed on the coast, and that’s going to affect glaciers,” he said.

Sixty percent of the planet’s fresh water is locked in the massive Antarctic ice sheet. Rignot says the study will help scientists predict how the continent responds to a warmer ocean and contributes to global sea level rise. “I think that it places more emphasis on the enormous importance of ice-ocean interaction in the Antarctic," he said. "If we really want to understand how these ice shelves evolve and will evolve in the future we must understand how the ocean is contributing to their melting in the underside.”

Warm Ocean Accelerating Antarctic Ice Loss
 
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IanC

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There is very little actual data on Antarctica. These stories are always based on someone's new 'model', which disagree with the last model. Buried in the stories are factoids which probably explain what is going on, like the ocean current which has increasingly driven warmer waters against the western peninsula since at least the '50s. Then they add in worst case scenarios, and only later describe how unlikely and long term they are (for plausible deniability).

What does 'granny' say about people and agencies that have a different story everytime they print something? Unpaid skeptics find large discrepancies and errors every time they look into these new models. When is peer review going to start doing its job in climate science?
 

westwall

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I love it when the warmists get all flumoxed... Notice how instead of scrapping the BS "theory" they will do all sorts of backflips trying to salvage it? they come up with the most ludicrous scemes to support the fraud but in the end the planet is getting cooler and they have lost.





It’s a global warming paradox.


(From National Geographic / by Christine Dell’Amore) – As air and sea temperatures rise, Arctic sea ice is rapidly and uniformly dwindling. In 2012, Arctic sea ice declined so much that the loss “utterly” obliterated the previous record, set in 2007, according to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center.

As of 2012, the area of Arctic sea ice around the North Pole had shrunk to 1.58 million square miles (4.1 million square kilometers)—the smallest measurement since 1979, when satellite observations began.



New Theory for Why Antarctic Sea Ice Is Growing | Ocean Leadership
 

flacaltenn

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Help me out here IanC -- maybe I'm not completely operational today or sumting..

If the 1900-1940 data is from a WARMER station -- How does the graph happen? As the station location moves closer to 90S -- the anomaly should be COLDER readings over the sparse region..

Is it that they Sauteed these outside stations with an adjustment for location for all those years? And now with more stations, that initial homogenizing is wrong??

Man -- It's hard to tell what's cooking today at the GISS kitchen aint it??
 
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IanC

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Help me out here IanC -- maybe I'm not completely operational today or sumting..

If the 1900-1940 data is from a WARMER station -- How does the graph happen? As the station location moves closer to 90S -- the anomaly should be COLDER readings over the sparse region..

Is it that they Sauteed these outside stations with an adjustment for location for all those years? And now with more stations, that initial homogenizing is wrong??

Man -- It's hard to tell what's cooking today at the GISS kitchen aint it??

I haven't gone back to look at the original article but I think your answer lies on the y axis. Anomalies rather than temps.

Hansen was the leader in infilling empty cells with adjacent cells, sometimes thousands of kms away. Polar regions are often measured at airstrips or encampment that are heavily affected by UHI. This UHI is then smeared over vast regions. Of course it could also be the homogenization process that preferential accepts warming trends while chopping out cooling trends as 'unexpected'.

Anyway you look at it, the adjustments always increase the warming for the aggregate global temp.
 

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