there are a whole lot of things I don't like about this tax bill. Then again my problem is there are not enough tax cuts. At least not for me.
Are you a member of a middle class or lower earning (wealth holding) household? If so, I'm not surprised you feel that way. Many such households will see their tax cut vanish and become a tax increase.
Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provided multiple charts that estimate the impact of the tax changes on various income groups over 10 years in two-year increments. One of the charts measures the change (relative to "today," which one can see from the second and third charts shown below) in federal business and individual income taxes collected (see first chart below) by income group for 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025 and 2027. Reading the JCT's chartst, one finds that households earning $75K or less per year will by 2027 incur a tax increase relative to what they pay now (last column in the first chart below). [1]
The JCT's analysis shows furthermore that some income groups would pay
more in taxes beginning in 2023. This new tax credit (in
section 1101 of the bill) would provide families with a $300 tax credit per parent and non-child dependent, but only until Jan. 1, 2023. In 2023, then, taxes increase compared with pre-TCJA law by $302 million for those earning less than $10,000 and nearly $1.9 billion for those earning between $20,000 and $30,000. (See or click on the chart below and read the report which you'll find at the links above.)
"Voodoo economics" is bad enough when the Congress imposes such notions on federal government policy. It's wholly another matter when the Congress enacts tax provisions that literally "giveth and then taketh away," and then some. It doesn't get more "voodoo" than that. After all, I doubt any middle income taxpayers in the =< $75K brackets will be keen to pay more then than they do now.
Note:
- The same report (JCX-68-17) contains charts that show the tax revenue collection distribution applicable to corporations. The short of it that's relevant for this post's/thread's discussion topic is that corporations do not lose their tax cut.
Are you saying you think there ought to be more tax cuts?
Speaking for myself, I don't think there should be
more federal income tax cuts in the bill. I think the balance of the cuts present in the bill, thus who benefits from them, should be shifted to middle income earners/households and away from upper income earners/households.
I think that not only because I find reprehensible the "distributional equity" of the TCJA (see above), but also because I am certain that only a minority of high-earning capitalists and corporations will expand their entrepreneurship behavior because their federal income tax liability decreases. I'm certain of that not only because economic research indicates as much, but also
in recent conferences, corporate execs said so, noting too that they would spend the money to liquidate debt and buy back stock rather than capital investments such as production or even new businesses.
The strongly growing economy, which has been doing so for the past 86 or so months, will spur business investment on its own, which is precisely in line with basic economics.
Sure, some tax cuts do catalyze business investment and spending that greatly boosts the economy, but those tax cuts are not federal income tax cuts.
Federal income tax cuts provide an immediate short-term boost to a weak economy, but they do not deliver long-term boosts and not when an economy is strong. Rather, it is payroll tax cuts that produce long term economic boosts. They do so via four demand increasing behaviors:
- Some firms use the savings to reduce prices, which increases demand for elastic goods and services.
- Some firms raise wages to retain good workers, who then spend more, thereby increasing demand.
- Some firms keep the tax savings, allowing them to buy more and increase demand.
- Firms that already have popular products use the savings to hire more workers. This behavior is both the most cost-effective and direct way to create jobs.
Congressional Budget Office researchers found that 13 jobs are created for each million dollar reduction in payroll taxes.
Some might think federal income tax reductions would/should spur the same economic behaviors that payroll tax reductions do. They don't. They don't not so much because of pure economics, but rather because of the way business activity is measured and analyzed. Payroll taxes are accounted for as "operating" expenses, for obvious reasons. In contrast, federal (and state) income taxes are "non-operating" expenses; they do not increase and decrease as a function of productive activity and staffing levels and incurring them has nothing to do with firm operations' economic merit and viability. Perhaps the most obvious manifestation of the difference between the role of payroll taxes and income taxes is seen in the very existence of the financial analysis measures
EBIT and EBITDA.
Then there is the matter of the deficit impact of federal income tax reductions. The
Laffer Curve indicates that tax cuts reduce government revenue dollar-for-dollar, but recoup that loss over the long term by boosting economic growth, thus the tax base.
To realize the tax-base-boosting revenue-recouping effect, however, the taxes that were reduced must be prohibitive. As the past 86 months of economic growth show, federal income taxes, particularly business/corporate taxes, in the U.S. were far from prohibitive.