Housing and Auto Sales are picking up.

Neubarth

At the Ballpark July 30th
Nov 8, 2008
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Housing and Auto Sales are picking up! WOW!

This according to Morningstar. They think the market is at bottom as the increase in car sales starts first and is usually massive when a recession shows signs of abating.

I am no economist, but I did look and it appears that the first indicators of a Recession coming to an end is a massive pickup in Auto Sales and housing sales increasing. That is exactly what the statistics are now showing.
 
I'm its going to take all of 2009 and probably half way through 2010 before we can say we are moving up from the bottom!
 
I was talking to my lovely wife as we were going out for a cocktail the other night and floated the idea of buying a new Mustang this spring.

8 cylinder, five speed, black with white stripes.....................SEXY
 
Housing and Auto Sales are picking up! WOW!

This according to Morningstar. They think the market is at bottom as the increase in car sales starts first and is usually massive when a recession shows signs of abating.

I am no economist, but I did look and it appears that the first indicators of a Recession coming to an end is a massive pickup in Auto Sales and housing sales increasing. That is exactly what the statistics are now showing.

You've been one of the biggest doomsdayers around here for a while now.

All the sudden this one article has changed your mind?

This is what happens during deflation. When you couple it with low interest rates, this is what you get. You can practically get a car for free these days. You can name your price. Mortgage rates are historically low, and home prices are plumetting.

What else would you expect?
 
Saw my X yesterday. That woman is cursed when it comes to cars, folks.

She's been driving a Scion, (one that has been in at least four accidents, only one of them her fault) and as it had been rode hard and put away wet, she elected to trade it in and get a new one.

So she's driving home from the dealer, a ride of less than three miles, when somebody slams into her passenger side.

She'd owned the car for less than three minutes.

The X is not only a boon to the auto dealer economy, but she's helping out the auto repair economy, too.

She's a good American.

Just never lend her your car.
 
Housing and Auto Sales are picking up! WOW!

This according to Morningstar. They think the market is at bottom as the increase in car sales starts first and is usually massive when a recession shows signs of abating.

I am no economist, but I did look and it appears that the first indicators of a Recession coming to an end is a massive pickup in Auto Sales and housing sales increasing. That is exactly what the statistics are now showing.

You've been one of the biggest doomsdayers around here for a while now.

All the sudden this one article has changed your mind?

This is what happens during deflation. When you couple it with low interest rates, this is what you get. You can practically get a car for free these days. You can name your price. Mortgage rates are historically low, and home prices are plumetting.

What else would you expect?


doomsdayers? Not exactly. As I have said, I have no economic background. I never studied it in college. No Macro. No Micro. What I do with respect to issues I write about is look at the history. Up to this point, I have seen repeating aspects of history that we are experiencing and almost everything looked bad. To counter that, I have been trying to find a site that has some positive spin. Morningstar has that approach. I looked at various stats on economic recovery, and it is true that for the recession to end, we have to see the car sales start to pick up. Morningstar says it is happening. IF so, now history is pointing towards some sunshine. We need that. Don't we?
 
So much positive news. This is on Yahoo Financial.

"A better-than-expected reading on the manufacturing sector is easing some of Wall Street's' concerns about the economy. The Institute for Supply Management says its manufacturing index rose to 35.6 in January from 32.4 in December. Economists were expecting a reading of 32.6."
 
The stock market is the major leading indicator of the economy. It isn't picking up. It hasn't even tested November's low yet.
 
The stock market is the major leading indicator of the economy. It isn't picking up. It hasn't even tested November's low yet.

It's getting close. I'll probably sell my DXD and take my profit when it touches the low 7000's.

And Neubarth, saying car sales need to pick up is obvious. In deflation, we should EXPECT to see cars and houses selling more because prices are down, and big ticket assets can be bought at bargain prices.
 
The stock market is the major leading indicator of the economy. It isn't picking up. It hasn't even tested November's low yet.

It's getting close. I'll probably sell my DXD and take my profit when it touches the low 7000's.

And Neubarth, saying car sales need to pick up is obvious. In deflation, we should EXPECT to see cars and houses selling more because prices are down, and big ticket assets can be bought at bargain prices.
The market has been consolidating for two months, and the long term technicals are still pointing down. It only took three months to fall the same amount it took twenty months to fall in the /00-/02 bear move. It could continue consolidating for a long time before it tests the November low. And even then it might test it more than once. I would be very surprised if it didn't test it at least once. And with only 1/3 of the housing bubble busted so far it could easily break down through that low.
 
jim cramer thinks its going to test 7500 before april and then after he think its going up.

neubarth im glad you are looking for both sides of the equation. with bad news there is good news. i see too much doom and gloom, especially from conservative doom and gloomers. i saw on cnbc where a guy said at this point only a stimulus package could do right now is soft the bottom a little, but the economy is going to have to find the bottom by itself.
 

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