Probability and Statistics
Darwin was convinced that, given enough time, small changes accumulating over time could account for the transformation of one species into another. Darwin proclaimed it was all a matter of probability. After all, the laws of probability do not preclude any possibility from occurring. Statistically speaking, there is always the chance of something happening. For example, if one were to drive a truck full of coins into an auditorium and dump them of the floor, the coins could all come up heads. However, it is not probable that such would ever happen.
The real question then is not whether or not evolution is possible but whether or not it is probable. The Darwinists claim that time is on their side. They note that the earth is nearly five billion years old and argue that such was enough time for chance mutation to account for the evolution of the entire complex of life in all its myriad forms. However, even considering the age of the universe, Fred Hoyle (1960) wrote that this was not sufficient time for the chance of evolution of the nucleic codes for each of the 2,000 genes that regulate the life processes of the more advanced mammals. In June of 2000, researchers announced that they had sequenced the human genome of the 3.1 billion base pairs, the rungs that make up the ladder-like double helix of DNA. Traditionally it had been assumed that humans had approximately 70,000 genes, and that all mammals had a similar number though not necessarily the same genes. In February of 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium announced that there are about 30,000 to 40,000 protein-coding genes in the human genome, only about twice as many as there are in a worm or fly. Interestingly, there are only a few hundred genes in the human genome that are not in the mouse genome.
Each gene is a sequence of DNA about one thousand nucleotides long, and each nucleotide consists of a sugar, a nitrogen containing base, and a phosphate group. The nucleotides in a DNA chain are linked together through their phosphate groups. According to Hoyle (1960), the probability that the chance occurrence of random mutations could, through the long process of time, accidentally create the complex ordered relationships expressed through the genetic codes could be likened to the probability that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 (Woodward, 1988).
In his book, Algeny, Jeremy Rifkin (1984) noted that in the world of mathematics, events whose probability occur within the range of 1/1030 to 1/1050 are considered impossible. In terms of information alone, it is estimated that a one-cell bacterium of E. coli contains the equivalent of 100 million pages of Encyclopedia Britannica. There are an estimated four million instructions in the DNA of E. coli. Even in the 'simplest' organisms, the information standard is enormously high (Hoyle & Wickramasinghe, 1981). A tiny one-cell organism is definitely something to contend with. George Gaylord Simpson (1967) wrote that the evolutionary journey leading up to the simplest one-cell organism was as impressive as the rest of the evolutionary trip put together.
Apparently, the mathematical odds more than agree with Simpson's analysis. In fact, according to the odds, a one-cell organism is so complex that the likelihood of its coming together by sheer accident and chance is computed to be around 1/1078,000 . Remember, nonpossibility, according to statisticians, is found in the range of 1/1030 to 1/1050 . The odds of a single-cell organism ever occurring by chance mutation are so far out of the ball park as to be unworthy of even being considered on a statistical basis. Such an occurrence, we might add, would be indistinguishable from a miracle. When one moves from the single-cell organism to higher, even more complex forms of life, the statistical probability shifts from to ridiculous to preposterous. Huxley, for example, computed the probability of the emergence of the horse as 1/103,000,000 (ibid., p.154).
According to Denton (1986), the possibility of life arising suddenly on earth by chance is infinitely small. Proteins are strings and coils of between 200 and 1000 amino acids. To get a cell by chance would require at least one hundred functional proteins to appear simultaneously in one place. That is one hundred simultaneous events each of an independent probability which could hardly be more than 10-20 giving a maximum combined probability of 10-2000. Hoyle and Wickramasinghe (1981) provided a similar estimate of the chance of life originating, assuming functional proteins to have a probability of 10-20 . By itself, this small probability could be faced, because one must contemplate not just a single shot at obtaining the enzyme, but a very large number of trials such as are supposed to have occurred in an organic soup early in the history of the earth. The trouble is that there are about two thousand enzymes, and the chance of obtaining them all in a random trial is only one part in 1040,000 an outrageously small probability that could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted of organic soup.
Wysong (1976) wrote that the most basic living organism would require 124 proteins of properly sequenced amino acids. The odds of even the simplest living organism forming by chance was 10-78,436. Furthermore, the total probability of the chance formation of the proteins and DNA required by the smallest self-replicating entity is 10-167,626 (Hadd, 1979).
The Darwinian claim that all the adaptive design of nature has resulted from a random search, a mechanism unable to find the best solution in a game of checkers, is one of the most daring claims in the history of science. But it is also one of the least substantiated. No evolutionary biologist has ever produced any quantitative proof that the designs of nature are in fact within the reach of chance (Denton, 1986). Would we believe, for example, that random shuffling of bricks would build a castle or a Greek temple? In the face of mounting evidence, more scientists are abandoning evolution.
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