HIV/AIDS Risk: The Reality

[eagleseven]

If you are the bottom, there is a 0.8% chance you will contract HIV from an HIV+ partner during unprotected anal sex.

If you are the top, there is a 0.06% chance of contracting HIV from an HIV+ partner during unprotected anal sex. This is similar to the risk of contracting HIV during unprotected vaginal intercourse.

This probability is reduced to near-zero when condoms are used, as it is when partners have non-penetrative sex.


So why is HIV still a problem? For two reasons:

1. Many people avoid condom use.

2. Humans have a lot of sex. If you sleep with an HIV+ partner every day, 0.8% rapidly compounds into a near-100% risk of contracting HIV.


As the lead HIV vaccine researcher here often says, "HIV is a preventable disease, if only humans would consistently use protection."

LAMBDA Volume 28 Issue 3: HIV Panic, Part II - Sexual Transmission and Public Health

 

[geauxtohell]

If you are the bottom, there is a 0.8% chance you will contract HIV from an HIV+ partner during unprotected anal sex.

If you are the top, there is a 0.06% chance of contracting HIV from an HIV+ partner during unprotected anal sex. This is similar to the risk of contracting HIV during unprotected vaginal intercourse.

This probability is reduced to near-zero when condoms are used, as it is when partners have non-penetrative sex.


So why is HIV still a problem? For two reasons:

1. Many people avoid condom use.

2. Humans have a lot of sex. If you sleep with an HIV+ partner every day, 0.8% rapidly compounds into a near-100% risk of contracting HIV.


As the lead HIV vaccine researcher here often says, "HIV is a preventable disease, if only humans would consistently use protection."

LAMBDA Volume 28 Issue 3: HIV Panic, Part II - Sexual Transmission and Public Health

I don't understand, in this day and age, why anyone wouldn't wear protection during intercourse if they aren't in a monogamous relationship (regardless of orientation).

.8% and .6% is still too high to roll the dice when you consider the outcomes.

 

[waltky]

Get ready for a new spike in AIDS cases...

HIV increase in gay men caused by fall in condom use
15 February 2013 - A modest increase in unprotected sex is enough to erode the benefits of other interventions, researchers said

A fall in the proportion of gay and bisexual men using condoms is behind the rise in HIV infections in those groups in the UK, say researchers. Wider use of anti-retroviral drugs has helped to stop a sharper rise, a study by the Health Protection Agency (HPA) and a number of universities found. They found a 26% rise, from 1990-2010, in the proportion of men who have sex with men who did not use condoms. The report said the figures showed it was vital to promote safe sex. Rates of HIV have been rising in recent years with latest figures showing cases among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK reaching an all-time high.

A recent report from the HPA found that nearly half of the 6,280 people diagnosed in the UK in 2011 were MSM. Overall, one in 20 MSM are infected with HIV. For this study, researchers analysed data from 1990 to 2010. They concluded that, without the introduction of anti-retroviral drugs to treat those with HIV, infections would be 68% higher in MSM. Therapy with anti-retrovirals lowers the risk of people with HIV infecting others. The report suggested the incidence of HIV could be 32% lower if all anti-retroviral treatment were prescribed from the moment of diagnosis rather than when health declined.

Informed choices

Further analysis showed that, if all MSM had stopped using condoms from 2000, rates of HIV in this group would now be 400% higher, the journal PLoS One reported. The data also showed that the incidence of HIV could have dropped by a quarter if more HIV testing had been done. But the researchers said the results showed that even a modest increase in unprotected sex was enough to erode the benefits of other interventions. Study leader Professor Andrew Phillips, from University College London, said: "By better understanding the driving forces behind the trends we've seen in the past, it will allow us to make informed choices to reduce new HIV infections in the future." Co-author Dr Valerie Delpech, who is head of HIV surveillance at the HPA, said: "Everyone should use a condom when having sex with new or casual partners, until all partners have had a sexual health screen. "We also encourage men who have sex with men to get an HIV and STI screen at least annually, and every three months if having condomless sex with new or casual partners - and clinicians to take every opportunity to recommend HIV testing to this group."

Sir Nick Partridge, chief executive of the Terrence Higgins Trust, said condom use by gay men had played a key part in containing the spread of HIV in the UK. "Without it, there would have been 80,000 more gay men with HIV between 2000 and 2010." He added that the study showed the impact of the combined HIV strategy of promoting condoms, increasing regular HIV testing and encouraging the earlier use of anti-HIV drug therapy. He added: "At a time when funding for local HIV prevention programmes is under threat, this only reinforces the important role which local authorities can and must play in funding local HIV prevention."

BBC News - HIV increase in gay men caused by fall in condom use

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

If you are the bottom, there is a 0.8% chance you will contract HIV from an HIV+ partner during unprotected anal sex.

If you are the top, there is a 0.06% chance of contracting HIV from an HIV+ partner during unprotected anal sex. This is similar to the risk of contracting HIV during unprotected vaginal intercourse.

This probability is reduced to near-zero when condoms are used, as it is when partners have non-penetrative sex.


So why is HIV still a problem? For two reasons:

1. Many people avoid condom use.

2. Humans have a lot of sex. If you sleep with an HIV+ partner every day, 0.8% rapidly compounds into a near-100% risk of contracting HIV.


As the lead HIV vaccine researcher here often says, "HIV is a preventable disease, if only humans would consistently use protection."

LAMBDA Volume 28 Issue 3: HIV Panic, Part II - Sexual Transmission and Public Health

those are only stats.

some people will get infected within one or a dozen exposures. Think of it like the lottery. I play once in my life. If I buy what turns out to be the winning ticket, fuck the odds. I won on my first try. There are incidences where a person only played once and won.

Odds are about risk. They guarantee nothing. Possibilities versus probabilities.

People tell me my chances of being hit by lightning are ________________. I always say no, because I do not golf, I do not swim during storms, and I do not live in a high risk of lightning strike location. My risk is always lower than what generic stats say
--'

from my days in public health: Communicable diseases and VD: There is no safe sex, there is safer sex. Many determinant factors come into play. Stating the odds alone is an academic exercise in safe mental masturbation

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

I don't understand, in this day and age, why anyone wouldn't wear protection during intercourse ..

human nature. people who don't want children have them or are involved in pregnancies. Anyone who thinks like Spock about sex isn't horny

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Get ready for a new spike in AIDS cases...

HIV increase in gay men caused by fall in condom use
15 February 2013 - A modest increase in unprotected sex is enough to erode the benefits of other interventions, researchers said
..

Been out of the picture for years, but I know there is lots of new data that makes your post look ignorant of facts

 

[ArmyCowboy]

If you are the bottom, there is a 0.8% chance you will contract HIV from an HIV+ partner during unprotected anal sex.

If you are the top, there is a 0.06% chance of contracting HIV from an HIV+ partner during unprotected anal sex. This is similar to the risk of contracting HIV during unprotected vaginal intercourse.

This probability is reduced to near-zero when condoms are used, as it is when partners have non-penetrative sex.


So why is HIV still a problem? For two reasons:

1. Many people avoid condom use.

2. Humans have a lot of sex. If you sleep with an HIV+ partner every day, 0.8% rapidly compounds into a near-100% risk of contracting HIV.


As the lead HIV vaccine researcher here often says, "HIV is a preventable disease, if only humans would consistently use protection."

LAMBDA Volume 28 Issue 3: HIV Panic, Part II - Sexual Transmission and Public Health

Actually, when discussing mathamatical probability, the .8% chances don't increase based on multiple instances, you just have the same .8% chance EVERY time, so if you do it twenty times, you don't have an 16% chance of getting the virus, you just have 20 .8% chances.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

An E7 Pissing-contest Free For All?

(inside humor)

 

[ChloeP80]

Hard to believe people still take risks but I suppose everyone thinks it wont happen to them. Also, I imagine it's hard to get people to get regular testing. I know lots of people who have never been tested, while I have one friend who tests himself with those online tests, this kind of thing STD Testing | Private and Confidential | Affordable and Accurate and does it a couple of times a year, but then he did have a scare once so maybe that's it, everyone else thinks they're indestructible. Scary stuff though.

 

[waltky]

Granny says if dem young'uns wouldn't havin' sex, dey wouldn't have to worry `bout HIV...

UNICEF: More Funds Needed to Fight Teen HIV
December 01, 2016 | WASHINGTON — The U.N. Children’s Fund predicts a 60 percent rise in the number of HIV-positive adolescents by 2030, unless there’s an increase in funding to fight it.

According to a new UNICEF report, the authors estimate the number of new infections could grow from a quarter million in 2015 to 400,000 in fewer than 15 years. The report said that an estimated 1.8 million adolescents, ages 10-19, are living with HIV, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. On this World AIDS Day, UNICEF is urging continued progress toward prevention of HIV in adolescents.

Young females vulnerable

Vivian Lopez, an HIV program specialist with the U.N. agency, said young women and girls are particularly vulnerable. “In Africa, we have three out of four new infections among adolescent girls in the 15 to 19 age range. And how that can also translate (is) into young women who become pregnant. And then we have a cycle of children becoming newly infected,” Lopez said. The rate of new infections among females is high, Lopez said, because their first sexual experience is often rape.

Young people play an “HIV knowledge” board game at an event to promote sexual and reproductive health among adolescents supported by the China Center for Health Education and UNICEF China.​

In its report, UNICEF proposes strategies for accelerating progress in preventing HIV among adolescents and treating those who are already infected, such as:

* Investing in innovation, including locally created solutions
* Strengthening data collection
* Ending gender discrimination, including gender-based violence and countering stigma
* Prioritizing efforts to address adolescents’ vulnerabilities through a combination of prevention efforts, including pre-exposure prophylaxis, cash transfers and comprehensive sexuality education.

Peer Health Educators gather at a World Aids Day Ceremony at American University in Dubai​

Lopez said AIDS is the leading cause of death among 10- to 14-year-olds. She said only half of adolescents with HIV are now on life-saving antiretroviral drugs. Every two minutes, an adolescent becomes infected with HIV, according to UNICEF.

The report had a number of other findings: