JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
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Hillary's Pollsters are busy little bees, whipping up fantasies of a Hillary landslide.
Articles: Uncovering the Biases in State-Level Polling Data
In addition to clear polling bias against GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump at the national level, we see the same pro-liberal bias within the state data. It's not just in places like Utah, but all across the nation.
The problem is so deep and widespread that only fools would attempt to average the datasets to assess the actual mood of the electorate. All of this data needs to be corrected prior to averaging, and if that is done, it becomes abundantly clear that Trump is likely leading Hillary Clinton by at least several points at the national level, and statewide data is shaping up consistent with a possible Trump landslide....
A few examples are in order at the state level, but we'll start with one of PPP's national polls. On May 10, PPP released a national poll claiming that "Hillary Clinton leads Trump 42-38, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 4% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%." Into the demographic data we go. When asked the question, "n the last presidential election, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?," 49% of respondents said Obama, and just 40% said Romney.
This 9% spread for Obama voters over Romney voters is far greater than the actual national spread in the 2012 election, which was 3.9%. Since polling results from a wide range of sources show that voters are overwhelmingly likely to repeat their 2012 party choice for president during the 2016 election, this translates into a baked-in bias against Trump of at least 4-5% on the poll in question. Thus, rather than a 4% Clinton lead, we likely have a slight Trump lead.
The 2012 Obama-Romney vote spread bias is diagnostic for potential problems in many polls, notably PPP's state level data.
On May 17, PPP reported that "[t]he Presidential election is pretty competitive in Arizona at this point. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton just 40-38, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%." Except that 46% of respondents said they voted Romney in 2012, and 42% voted for Obama, yielding only a 4% advantage to Romney 2012 voters. But in 2012, Romney beat Obama by 9% in Arizona. Yet again, a likely liberal bias is in the composition, suggesting that Trump's support is significantly underestimated, while perhaps the race is not that competitive after all.
Articles: Uncovering the Biases in State-Level Polling Data
In addition to clear polling bias against GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump at the national level, we see the same pro-liberal bias within the state data. It's not just in places like Utah, but all across the nation.
The problem is so deep and widespread that only fools would attempt to average the datasets to assess the actual mood of the electorate. All of this data needs to be corrected prior to averaging, and if that is done, it becomes abundantly clear that Trump is likely leading Hillary Clinton by at least several points at the national level, and statewide data is shaping up consistent with a possible Trump landslide....
A few examples are in order at the state level, but we'll start with one of PPP's national polls. On May 10, PPP released a national poll claiming that "Hillary Clinton leads Trump 42-38, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 4% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%." Into the demographic data we go. When asked the question, "n the last presidential election, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?," 49% of respondents said Obama, and just 40% said Romney.
This 9% spread for Obama voters over Romney voters is far greater than the actual national spread in the 2012 election, which was 3.9%. Since polling results from a wide range of sources show that voters are overwhelmingly likely to repeat their 2012 party choice for president during the 2016 election, this translates into a baked-in bias against Trump of at least 4-5% on the poll in question. Thus, rather than a 4% Clinton lead, we likely have a slight Trump lead.
The 2012 Obama-Romney vote spread bias is diagnostic for potential problems in many polls, notably PPP's state level data.
On May 17, PPP reported that "[t]he Presidential election is pretty competitive in Arizona at this point. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton just 40-38, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%." Except that 46% of respondents said they voted Romney in 2012, and 42% voted for Obama, yielding only a 4% advantage to Romney 2012 voters. But in 2012, Romney beat Obama by 9% in Arizona. Yet again, a likely liberal bias is in the composition, suggesting that Trump's support is significantly underestimated, while perhaps the race is not that competitive after all.
