Qball
Corner Pocket
Now that Brett Kavanaugh has been confirmed to SCOTUS, I think it might be interesting to go over how abortion rights are going to play out going forward. It's probably not how you think, but a lot of people are stuck on partisanship and the pro-life/pro-choice divide, and not focused on the legal underpinnings, such as they are.
What's probably going to happen in the next 2-3 years is a deep red state is going to pass a fairly strong restriction on abortion, like say, no abortions after the first trimester. It's going to be a big deal because it's going to be the first time a state has passed such a blanket ban on abortion.
The ACLU or Planned Parenthood is quickly going to get involved and file a lawsuit saying the state is putting an undue burden on women to exercise their abortion rights.
It'll go to district court, and the district court judge will rule against the State. If they're clever, their decision will cite Planned Parenthood v. Casey and not even mention Roe, but who knows?
The ruling will be appealed and it'll go to the Circuit courts. They will uphold the district court ruling and they will mention Roe v. Wade is still precedent.
Their ruling will be appealed and it will be up for cert at the SCOTUS. They will decide to take up the case. Because there are at least five judicial conservatives, they will likely rule in favor of the State and uphold the law. The reasoning will be because they feel states have a right to statutorily regulate abortion as they see fit, similar to how our 2nd Amendment rights have regulated by state and federal regulation. Their ruling will overturn PP v. Casey but will be narrowly tailored to the case and won't overturn and even really address Roe because even with the restriction, abortion is still legal.
What will then happen is probably a handful of states will start putting abortion measures on the ballots. Parental consent, wait-periods, restrictions, that kind of thing. It will piss off pro-choice advocates and there will be mass protests and fundraisers to defeat these measures popping up all over the country. Some may pass, some may not.
The tipping point is going to be when a poorly worded abortion measure passes in a purple-to-light-blue state -- a state where Democrats have a reason to grandstand and make a power play to show the Left that they're on their side. So the measure will pass, and even though pro-life advocates will like the restriction in theory, both sides will agree that the law as passed isn't worded very well.
There will be another lawsuit to declare this measure unconstitutional. It will be declared so in the federal courts and it will go back to SCOTUS, probably inside of 4 years after the last ruling, and SCOTUS will wind up overturning Roe, stating the state has an obligation to protect life, and an unborn child is a life distinct from its mother.
This will lead to many states taking differing actions on abortion. Blue states will pass laws flatly allowing abortion with no, or very few, restrictions. The most red of states will likely ban abortion in all cases except rape and the life of the mother.
What's probably going to happen in the next 2-3 years is a deep red state is going to pass a fairly strong restriction on abortion, like say, no abortions after the first trimester. It's going to be a big deal because it's going to be the first time a state has passed such a blanket ban on abortion.
The ACLU or Planned Parenthood is quickly going to get involved and file a lawsuit saying the state is putting an undue burden on women to exercise their abortion rights.
It'll go to district court, and the district court judge will rule against the State. If they're clever, their decision will cite Planned Parenthood v. Casey and not even mention Roe, but who knows?
The ruling will be appealed and it'll go to the Circuit courts. They will uphold the district court ruling and they will mention Roe v. Wade is still precedent.
Their ruling will be appealed and it will be up for cert at the SCOTUS. They will decide to take up the case. Because there are at least five judicial conservatives, they will likely rule in favor of the State and uphold the law. The reasoning will be because they feel states have a right to statutorily regulate abortion as they see fit, similar to how our 2nd Amendment rights have regulated by state and federal regulation. Their ruling will overturn PP v. Casey but will be narrowly tailored to the case and won't overturn and even really address Roe because even with the restriction, abortion is still legal.
What will then happen is probably a handful of states will start putting abortion measures on the ballots. Parental consent, wait-periods, restrictions, that kind of thing. It will piss off pro-choice advocates and there will be mass protests and fundraisers to defeat these measures popping up all over the country. Some may pass, some may not.
The tipping point is going to be when a poorly worded abortion measure passes in a purple-to-light-blue state -- a state where Democrats have a reason to grandstand and make a power play to show the Left that they're on their side. So the measure will pass, and even though pro-life advocates will like the restriction in theory, both sides will agree that the law as passed isn't worded very well.
There will be another lawsuit to declare this measure unconstitutional. It will be declared so in the federal courts and it will go back to SCOTUS, probably inside of 4 years after the last ruling, and SCOTUS will wind up overturning Roe, stating the state has an obligation to protect life, and an unborn child is a life distinct from its mother.
This will lead to many states taking differing actions on abortion. Blue states will pass laws flatly allowing abortion with no, or very few, restrictions. The most red of states will likely ban abortion in all cases except rape and the life of the mother.
