Health Care Reform Bill Budget Impact “Subject to Substantial Uncertainty”

[Christopher]

Here is what the CBO has said about the health care reform bill that Obama plans to sign this month, link here http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10868/12-19-Reid_Letter_Managers_Correction_Noted.pdf:

Estimated Budgetary Impact
According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act with the manager’s amendment would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $132 billion over the 2010–2019 period (see Table 1). In the subsequent decade, the collective effect of its provisions would probably be continued reductions in federal budget deficits if all of the provisions continued to be fully implemented. Those estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty.

Consider this scenario for a moment. Lets say you were about to implement a policy in your own life that could potentially save you about 1% of the total debt you owe over ten years (this percentage is roughly equivalent to the $132 billion as a percentage of the total US national debt for 2009). But, the potential to do this was “subject to substantial uncertainty” and it may end up increasing the amount you owe. Would you take the chance with your own finances and go ahead to implement this policy or would you find a policy or policies that would have more certainty about cost savings? For me, I think the smarter thing to do would be to find other policies.

If Obama signs this bill, he is basically saying he would take the risk. Yet, he will be doing it with our money, not just his.

 

[antagon]

fail

 

[Polk]

Sure, it could end up increasing the amount you owe. Of course, it's equally probable that it'll save you a great amount then advertised.

Your logic is the same faulty logic by those who pretend climate change is fake, because the best estimates say something like a three degree increase with a margin of +/- 4. The possibly that the Earth could become cooler by a degree doesn't make the case for action weaker, it makes it significantly stronger, because on the other end, there is the possibility of a seven degree increase, which would eliminate much of the planet's population.

 

[Christopher]

fail

Yes, you failed to answer the question.

 

[Christopher]

Sure, it could end up increasing the amount you owe. Of course, it's equally probable that it'll save you a great amount then advertised.

Your logic is the same faulty logic by those who pretend climate change is fake, because the best estimates say something like a three degree increase with a margin of +/- 4. The possibly that the Earth could become cooler by a degree doesn't make the case for action weaker, it makes it significantly stronger, because on the other end, there is the possibility of a seven degree increase, which would eliminate much of the planet's population.

I see what you are saying. The difference is that the politicians for the health care reform bill are touting that it will reduce the deficit, yet not telling us that the estimates that "prove" this have a substantial amount of uncertainty with them. For the record, I do not believe climate change is fake.

 

[Truthmatters]

The American People elected him to make just these types of decisions.

It called representative government

 

[Polk]

Sure, it could end up increasing the amount you owe. Of course, it's equally probable that it'll save you a great amount then advertised.

Your logic is the same faulty logic by those who pretend climate change is fake, because the best estimates say something like a three degree increase with a margin of +/- 4. The possibly that the Earth could become cooler by a degree doesn't make the case for action weaker, it makes it significantly stronger, because on the other end, there is the possibility of a seven degree increase, which would eliminate much of the planet's population.

I see what you are saying. The difference is that the politicians for the health care reform bill are touting that it will reduce the deficit, yet not telling us that the estimates that "prove" this have a substantial amount of uncertainty with them. For the record, I do not believe climate change is fake.

They're just as uncertain on both sides though. Therefore, the most honest thing to do is state the expected value. If they were stating the absolute best case scenario as the most likely outcome, you'd have a valid argument. They're not though.

 

[Christopher]

The American People elected him to make just these types of decisions.

It called representative government

Yes, and the American people can decide whether he made good decisions or not. According to you, will signing this bill be a good decision?

 

[Truthmatters]

Its a start.

It does not contain many things that we need to solve this problem but it does contain some.

Get your ass ready for the next steps in the process

 

[Baruch Menachem]

This strikes me as sensible as drilling a hole in the bottom of your boat to let the water that has splashed in out the bottom.

 

[antagon]

fail

Yes, you failed to answer the question.

ya failed to move me with that whole course of logic.

taking your parallel, if i think changing from, say, auto insurer a to b hoping to save $132 this year, you propose that im taking greater financial risk.

fail.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

fail

Yes, you failed to answer the question.

ya failed to move me with that whole course of logic.

taking your parallel, if i think changing from, say, auto insurer a to b hoping to save $132 this year, you propose that im taking greater financial risk.

fail.

Well, if we want to make the analogy better, we would save money on the policy only if during the life of the policy we had no violations ever, the premium would be subject to change at any time by the insurer, and shortly after we bought the thing, the coverages and fees would be changed, how, they won't tell us.

 

[antagon]

Yes, you failed to answer the question.

ya failed to move me with that whole course of logic.

taking your parallel, if i think changing from, say, auto insurer a to b hoping to save $132 this year, you propose that im taking greater financial risk.

fail.

Well, if we want to make the analogy better, we would save money on the policy only if during the life of the policy we had no violations ever, the premium would be subject to change at any time by the insurer, and shortly after we bought the thing, the coverages and fees would be changed, how, they won't tell us.

thanks for your concern, but i dont see the point in a fantasy analogy. adding speculation and paranoia doesnt help.

 

[Christopher]

Sure, it could end up increasing the amount you owe. Of course, it's equally probable that it'll save you a great amount then advertised.

Your logic is the same faulty logic by those who pretend climate change is fake, because the best estimates say something like a three degree increase with a margin of +/- 4. The possibly that the Earth could become cooler by a degree doesn't make the case for action weaker, it makes it significantly stronger, because on the other end, there is the possibility of a seven degree increase, which would eliminate much of the planet's population.

I see what you are saying. The difference is that the politicians for the health care reform bill are touting that it will reduce the deficit, yet not telling us that the estimates that "prove" this have a substantial amount of uncertainty with them. For the record, I do not believe climate change is fake.

They're just as uncertain on both sides though. Therefore, the most honest thing to do is state the expected value. If they were stating the absolute best case scenario as the most likely outcome, you'd have a valid argument. They're not though.

Since when does a highly uncertain estimate become the expected value?

 

[Christopher]

fail

Yes, you failed to answer the question.

ya failed to move me with that whole course of logic.

taking your parallel, if i think changing from, say, auto insurer a to b hoping to save $132 this year, you propose that im taking greater financial risk.

fail.

You failed to finish your analogy to be similar to the one I gave. Here is what you need to add:

A reputable source that analyzes the cost of insurance from different companies (this source is not affiliated with any insurance company) tells you that the actual cost savings in switching with insurance company b is substantially uncertain. In addition, insurance company b has a poor track record of saving money. Would you still switch then?

 

[antagon]

i digress:

thanks for your concern, but i dont see the point in a fantasy analogy. adding speculation and paranoia doesnt help.

 

[antagon]

i dont mean to be impolite. i would still switch on account of improving my coverage with the potential of savings.

 

[Old Rocks]

Hell, let's just continue as we are. It is such a god damned great thing about our nation to have 700,000 families a year go bankrupt because of medical bill. It is absolutely wonderful to have an infant mortality rate like a third world nation. Doesn't it make you feel great that the people in little Costa Rica have a longer life expectancy than we do here in the US. In spite of the fact that the income average is only a tenth that of the Us.

Ah yes, let's not do anything rash like denying the health insurance industry billions of dollars that they make denying the claims of the people that have been paying for health insurance.

We pay twice as much for health care on a per capita basis as most other industrial nations, and get an inferior product. Doesn't that just make you bust your buttons about good old American knowhow?

 

[Polk]

I see what you are saying. The difference is that the politicians for the health care reform bill are touting that it will reduce the deficit, yet not telling us that the estimates that "prove" this have a substantial amount of uncertainty with them. For the record, I do not believe climate change is fake.

They're just as uncertain on both sides though. Therefore, the most honest thing to do is state the expected value. If they were stating the absolute best case scenario as the most likely outcome, you'd have a valid argument. They're not though.

Since when does a highly uncertain estimate become the expected value?

Uncertainty refers to the margin of error in the estimate. The estimate still produces an expected value.

 

[Christopher]

Hell, let's just continue as we are. It is such a god damned great thing about our nation to have 700,000 families a year go bankrupt because of medical bill. It is absolutely wonderful to have an infant mortality rate like a third world nation. Doesn't it make you feel great that the people in little Costa Rica have a longer life expectancy than we do here in the US. In spite of the fact that the income average is only a tenth that of the Us.

Ah yes, let's not do anything rash like denying the health insurance industry billions of dollars that they make denying the claims of the people that have been paying for health insurance.

We pay twice as much for health care on a per capita basis as most other industrial nations, and get an inferior product. Doesn't that just make you bust your buttons about good old American knowhow?

Nice strawman; I know we need to do something. Giving the government more power and control over health care will not solve this.