GOP nomination polling leading up to 2012 - for historical context

On this thread:

Trump also leading in Zogby Analytics poll GOP nomination US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

LordBrownTrout made a very, very accurate and helpful statement, imo. I quote:

"If you remember the 2012, it was like round robin, each republican would take the lead and then fall back. I think they all were in the lead at one point."


Yes, absolutely right. Many of them did take the lead over Romney, at least for a short while.

And to prove it, I collected ALL of the GOP nomination polling data (national only) and recorded the results in one EXCEL table. I did this back at the end of 2011:

gop primary polling - Google Sheets

158 GOP nomination polls were released from November 2008 (yes, 2008) and the middle of December, 2011.

The table goes in reverse chronological order, with the most recent polls at the top.

To make it easier to navigate, I separated the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 from each other and then, starting in 2011, I separated that year by month.

The winning percentage is in red and bolded. Ties are not bolded, but rather, italic. A long stretch of wins for one candidate is then shaded in the boxes with the percentage, for instance:

View attachment 45753

I think my GOP/Conservative friends will find this enlightening and also very helpful. Here we go:

There was only one GOP nomination poll for 2012 taken in 2008; it was taken by Rasmussen one day after Obama's 2008 victory. The winner: Sarah Palin, with 64% and a blowout +55 over Romney. That poll fell way under the radar and was lost in the din of all the media attention over the 2008 election itself.

In 2009, there were 12 GOP nomination polls taken: Romney won 5, Huckabee won 5 and Palin won 2. Palin's wins were spead out through the year, while Romney's wins were concentrated most in July/August of 2009. Romney's high-water mark was 30%, Huck's was 32% and Palin's was 29%. I also did an averages column for each separated section, which makes little sense for an entire year, but makes sense once you get down to dividing in months in 2011. So, forget the averages for now.

In 2010, a mid-term election year, there were 23 GOP nomination polls: Romney won 15, Huckabee won 5, Palin won 2 and Gingrich won 1. Romney's high water mark was 29, early in 2010, but most of his values were between 18-23. He even won one Gallup poll, right at the beginning, with just 14%, with 67% of GOP voters undecided, once again evidence that not all was right with Gallup... Huck's high-water mark was 25, but as the year progressed, he moved farther down into the teens. Palin's high-water mark was 21 and both of the polls that she won were in November 2010, shortly after the 2010 mid-term elections, where he endorsements of certain GOP candídates, whether they played a role in the election or not, got her a lot of publicity. Gingrich won 1 poll, in July of 2010.

You should go and see all of the values for 2011 yourself, by month, but in a nutshell, including the MONTHLY average:

January, 2011: 5 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Average: Romney by just a hair: +0.13. TIE.

February, 2011: 3 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Average: Huckabee slightly ahead, by +1.34. STATISTICAL TIE.

March, 2011: 5 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Huckabee won four of five, but they were all close. Average: Huckabee +1.60. STATISTICAL TIE.

So, the first quarter of 2011 was a fight mainly between Romney and Huckabee and it was all tied-up.

April, 2011: 9 polls, dogfight between Romney and TRUMP. Romney won 5, Trump won 2, there were 2 mathematical absolute ties. Trump's first poll win was a big margin (+9) but his second win was a statistical tie (+2). End of April was when President Obama released his long-form birth certificate, then came the National Correspondents dinner on the last day of April (Saturday) and then, on May 1 (Sunday), Osama bin Ladin was killed upon the orders of the POTUS For the first time in the 2012 cycle, Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump were included in polling. Average: Romney by just a hair: +0.43.

May, 2011: 6 polls, four of which Romney won. Guiliani won 1 and there was one mathematical tie. Trump was polled in the first four and then, after announcing that he wasn't running, no more. But Cain announced in May and his announcement dovetailed pretty cleanly with Trump's "NO", if I recall, and so at the end of May, for the first time, Cain and Giuliani were being polled. Huck also pulled out of consideration in May, so May 2011 was the month for some real shifts in the polling, which was to the advantage of Romney. Average: Romney +2.67

June, 2011 was around the time when Christian Conservatives (Hagee and Co.) met on more than one occasion, because they were unhappy with Romney's mormonism and with Huck now out of the picture, they were quite distressed. This was recorded many times over in the media, all over the place. So, pollsters began polling Sarah Palin again (she had falled somewhat to the wayside). But June 2011 was one of Romney's best months ever, he absolutely dominated the polling, having won 10 of 11 polls (Palin won the remaining poll). His high-water mark in June was 33 and his average was: 23.36%, +10.09. For the first time in the 2012, the GOP had a very clear front-runner, who was ahead by a landslide margin.

Likewise, in July, 2011, Romney dominated GOP nomination polling and won all 9 of 9 polls, with an average of +8.34. However, his percentage average fell some and Rick Perry's stock rose: he was in 2nd place in the last 5 polls of July.

August, 2011 is the month I then-dubbed the "month of two months", for in the first half, Romney was winning (he won the first 4 of 11 polls), but right at mid-month, favor shifted completely to Rick Perry (who won the other 7 polls). Perry's high-water mark was 38, if I recall, the second highest value for any primary percentage value among Republicans, behind Gingrich's 40 in December. Average: Perry +4.91. August was Perry's month.

September, 2011: this month was also Perry's month, he won 10 of 11 polls, but Romney took the lead in the last poll. Average: Perry +7.54. August was the month where pollsters who had dropped Rick Santorum picked him back up again and also started polling for John Huntsman. When Palin said she would not run, then they dropped her from polling as well.

October, 2011 saw 15 GOP nomination polls and Herman Cain's sudden rise in polling as Rick Perry fell, quite precipitously. Perry fell long before his famous "oops" at the November 9 debate. Romney won 8 polls, Cain won 5 and there was one mathematical tie between the two of them. Rick Perry fell into single digits for the most part. But Cain's wins mostly in the latter half of the month. Average: Romney +0.93. And his percentage average: 23.13, pretty much back to where he was in June. This is an important point to remember. So, October was a dogfight between Romney and Cain.

November, 2011: in November, we saw Newt Gingrich's rise in the polls and for the very first time, we saw a statistically very close 3-man race between Romney, Cain and Gingrich. Of 20 polls, Romney won 8, Cain won 4, there was a statistical tie between Cain and Romney and Gingrich won the last 7 in a row. Visually, you can literally see the moment where Cain faded and Gingrich rose, but all the while, Romney's numbers hung around the low 20s, as they had most all of the time. Average: Romney +2.26

December 2011 (till mid-December): December was mostly the month of Gingrich. He won 14 of 17 polls and the other 3 were absolute ties with Romney. December 2011 was the only month of 2011 where Romney won not a single poll. By then, Cain was out of the race and the average was: Gingrich +9.31.

So, let's recap who the flavor of the month was:

2008: Palin
2009: Romney, Huckabee (Palin)
2010: Romney, Huckabee (Palin)

January 2011: Romney, Huckabee
February and March 2011: Huckabee, Romney
Nutshell: Q1, 2011: Dogfight between Romney and Huckabee, very close.

April 2011: Romney, Trump

May, June, July 2011: Romney (Perry rising in July)
Nutshell: these were Romney's 3 best months in polling.

August and September 2011: Perry
October 2011: Romney, Cain (Perry falls precipitously)
November 2011: Romney, Gingrich
December 2011: Gingrich
Nutshell: the last five months were the "find a replacement for Romney" months or "flavor of the month" months, or as Lordtroutbrown put it, "round robin" months.

After December 17th, surprisingly few national GOP nomination polls were taken. There are a smattering of them, which I recorded. Just two weeks after this last poll, Iowa held it's caucuses.


And the irony of this is that the guy who was barely registering in polling, Rick Santorum, ended up winning the Iowa Caucuses and later, nine other states, officially accumulating 255 delegates, in 2nd place, behind Romney:

View attachment 45758




Santorum's December average was 3.82% (4%). So, I think there's a lesson to be learned from this. A candidate who is way behind in the pack can indeed surprise.

On the D side, in 1992, Bill Clinton was at about 3% in January; Tsongas won the New Hampshire primaries, but then Clinton catapulted to the front. It's possible, especially in a crowded field. And I am absolutely thinking that this could happen in 2016 as well on the Republican side. In terms of this, I am especially keeping watch on Ohio Gov. Kasich, who, in an extremely tight GOP convention, could easily emerge as the best compromise candidate, ala Willkie 1940.

So, when I see this:

View attachment 45754


I am reminded of this:

View attachment 45753


The one common denominator between both cycles, at least for now, is the guy who, when he was not first place, was almost always second: Romney in the 2012 cycle and Jeb Bush in this cycle, at least until now.

So, if 2012 is our guide, then Jeb Bush will be your nominee in 2016.

But then there is Walker, who is also doing very well, which reminds me of a month like this:

View attachment 45756



So, yeah, anything can happen.

I think my Republican friends very often forget that I am simply reporting what is happening and try my best to give absolutely historical context. That's all.

On the other hand, this whole paradigm could get blown out of the universe. Trump could conceivable move into a permanently dominant position and then, that is that. Or, a 3%er like Kasich or Perry could jump to the front. Soon enough, we will all know.


One thing is, however, absolutely for sure: the DEM field is completely different than the GOP field.

Let's compare:

View attachment 45754

vs.

View attachment 45757

A +40 is an absolutely crushing margin, practically impossible, barring any unforseen catastrophe, to beat. And Hillary has been crushing the potential field in every single national nomination poll, hanging close to the 60% mark.

The 2016 D polling reminds me a lot of the 1980 (Reagan, Bush, Anderson), 1988 (Bush, Dole, Robertson, DuPont), 1996 (Dole, Buchanan, Forbes) and 2000 (Bush, McCain, Keyes) R primary polling and the 1984 (Mondale, Hart, Jackson - but only to a point) and 2000 (Gore, Bradley, Jackson, Gebhart) D primary polling, where, in these primary races, the frontrunner was so far ahead that the race was essentially non-competitive and everyone in the room knew it. You can make an argument that 1984 with Mondale was more competitive, and it was, but he was still so far along, at every turn, albeit with lesser margin, and then Hart imploded with his sex scandal. I don't remember any Democrat in 1984 putting his bet on anyone other than Mondale.

So, after many, many words, because I do respect you, I agree that with the GOP field, anything can happen. And contrary to what some noodle-brains may want to say, I do follow the numbers impassionately. If next month, Walker has a meteoric rise, then I will record and report with the same veracity as I have been with Trump. In fact, I suspect that Walker is indeed about to arise.

It's simple math, but I sincerely hope that this thread helps to give some recent historical context to all of this.

One more side note: Rand Paul is generally not doing as well in polling as his father, Ron Paul, did, both 4 and 8 years ago. And yet, in spite of that, Rand Paul could win Kentucky, he could get some delegates in Iowa and he could use Obama's backdoor caucus strategy from 2008 to get more delegates than people realize.

cereal_killer - my gut tells me that this thread will also interest you, not as an admin, but as a person who has expressed interest in the 2016 race.


:D

Wow.

You have a lot of time on your hands.


Not really. I had a lot of this stuff analysed a long, long time ago and just needed to insert the 2016 stuff.

But thanks for getting personal instead of using the information at hand to learn something. Especially since this data should be of good use for Conservatives/Republicans.

Don't bite the hand that feeds you. You only end up starving later.

:D

he would have to have the ability to understand it before he could actually respond to it.

As to the topic.... the GOP candidates ebbed and flowed during the 2012 campaign. The natural result of each coming forward, inciting interest and then disappointing their base for one reason or another. In Gingrich's case, it seemed a concerted effort on the part of the GOP establishment to get him out of the race.

That type of natural ebb and flow is what is being destroyed by faux news inserting itself into who the candidate will ultimately be by requiring anyone who participates in the debate to be in the first ten places in the average of the last five national polls. But the candidates should be investing in the early states, not in national polls. But faux news fixed it so the money is being put into ads on faux news... in order to get national poll numbers.

isn't that special?
Exactly.

This is supposed to be a process for states.
 
On this thread:

Trump also leading in Zogby Analytics poll GOP nomination US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

LordBrownTrout made a very, very accurate and helpful statement, imo. I quote:

"If you remember the 2012, it was like round robin, each republican would take the lead and then fall back. I think they all were in the lead at one point."


Yes, absolutely right. Many of them did take the lead over Romney, at least for a short while.

And to prove it, I collected ALL of the GOP nomination polling data (national only) and recorded the results in one EXCEL table. I did this back at the end of 2011:

gop primary polling - Google Sheets

158 GOP nomination polls were released from November 2008 (yes, 2008) and the middle of December, 2011.

The table goes in reverse chronological order, with the most recent polls at the top.

To make it easier to navigate, I separated the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 from each other and then, starting in 2011, I separated that year by month.

The winning percentage is in red and bolded. Ties are not bolded, but rather, italic. A long stretch of wins for one candidate is then shaded in the boxes with the percentage, for instance:

View attachment 45753

I think my GOP/Conservative friends will find this enlightening and also very helpful. Here we go:

There was only one GOP nomination poll for 2012 taken in 2008; it was taken by Rasmussen one day after Obama's 2008 victory. The winner: Sarah Palin, with 64% and a blowout +55 over Romney. That poll fell way under the radar and was lost in the din of all the media attention over the 2008 election itself.

In 2009, there were 12 GOP nomination polls taken: Romney won 5, Huckabee won 5 and Palin won 2. Palin's wins were spead out through the year, while Romney's wins were concentrated most in July/August of 2009. Romney's high-water mark was 30%, Huck's was 32% and Palin's was 29%. I also did an averages column for each separated section, which makes little sense for an entire year, but makes sense once you get down to dividing in months in 2011. So, forget the averages for now.

In 2010, a mid-term election year, there were 23 GOP nomination polls: Romney won 15, Huckabee won 5, Palin won 2 and Gingrich won 1. Romney's high water mark was 29, early in 2010, but most of his values were between 18-23. He even won one Gallup poll, right at the beginning, with just 14%, with 67% of GOP voters undecided, once again evidence that not all was right with Gallup... Huck's high-water mark was 25, but as the year progressed, he moved farther down into the teens. Palin's high-water mark was 21 and both of the polls that she won were in November 2010, shortly after the 2010 mid-term elections, where he endorsements of certain GOP candídates, whether they played a role in the election or not, got her a lot of publicity. Gingrich won 1 poll, in July of 2010.

You should go and see all of the values for 2011 yourself, by month, but in a nutshell, including the MONTHLY average:

January, 2011: 5 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Average: Romney by just a hair: +0.13. TIE.

February, 2011: 3 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Average: Huckabee slightly ahead, by +1.34. STATISTICAL TIE.

March, 2011: 5 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Huckabee won four of five, but they were all close. Average: Huckabee +1.60. STATISTICAL TIE.

So, the first quarter of 2011 was a fight mainly between Romney and Huckabee and it was all tied-up.

April, 2011: 9 polls, dogfight between Romney and TRUMP. Romney won 5, Trump won 2, there were 2 mathematical absolute ties. Trump's first poll win was a big margin (+9) but his second win was a statistical tie (+2). End of April was when President Obama released his long-form birth certificate, then came the National Correspondents dinner on the last day of April (Saturday) and then, on May 1 (Sunday), Osama bin Ladin was killed upon the orders of the POTUS For the first time in the 2012 cycle, Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump were included in polling. Average: Romney by just a hair: +0.43.

May, 2011: 6 polls, four of which Romney won. Guiliani won 1 and there was one mathematical tie. Trump was polled in the first four and then, after announcing that he wasn't running, no more. But Cain announced in May and his announcement dovetailed pretty cleanly with Trump's "NO", if I recall, and so at the end of May, for the first time, Cain and Giuliani were being polled. Huck also pulled out of consideration in May, so May 2011 was the month for some real shifts in the polling, which was to the advantage of Romney. Average: Romney +2.67

June, 2011 was around the time when Christian Conservatives (Hagee and Co.) met on more than one occasion, because they were unhappy with Romney's mormonism and with Huck now out of the picture, they were quite distressed. This was recorded many times over in the media, all over the place. So, pollsters began polling Sarah Palin again (she had falled somewhat to the wayside). But June 2011 was one of Romney's best months ever, he absolutely dominated the polling, having won 10 of 11 polls (Palin won the remaining poll). His high-water mark in June was 33 and his average was: 23.36%, +10.09. For the first time in the 2012, the GOP had a very clear front-runner, who was ahead by a landslide margin.

Likewise, in July, 2011, Romney dominated GOP nomination polling and won all 9 of 9 polls, with an average of +8.34. However, his percentage average fell some and Rick Perry's stock rose: he was in 2nd place in the last 5 polls of July.

August, 2011 is the month I then-dubbed the "month of two months", for in the first half, Romney was winning (he won the first 4 of 11 polls), but right at mid-month, favor shifted completely to Rick Perry (who won the other 7 polls). Perry's high-water mark was 38, if I recall, the second highest value for any primary percentage value among Republicans, behind Gingrich's 40 in December. Average: Perry +4.91. August was Perry's month.

September, 2011: this month was also Perry's month, he won 10 of 11 polls, but Romney took the lead in the last poll. Average: Perry +7.54. August was the month where pollsters who had dropped Rick Santorum picked him back up again and also started polling for John Huntsman. When Palin said she would not run, then they dropped her from polling as well.

October, 2011 saw 15 GOP nomination polls and Herman Cain's sudden rise in polling as Rick Perry fell, quite precipitously. Perry fell long before his famous "oops" at the November 9 debate. Romney won 8 polls, Cain won 5 and there was one mathematical tie between the two of them. Rick Perry fell into single digits for the most part. But Cain's wins mostly in the latter half of the month. Average: Romney +0.93. And his percentage average: 23.13, pretty much back to where he was in June. This is an important point to remember. So, October was a dogfight between Romney and Cain.

November, 2011: in November, we saw Newt Gingrich's rise in the polls and for the very first time, we saw a statistically very close 3-man race between Romney, Cain and Gingrich. Of 20 polls, Romney won 8, Cain won 4, there was a statistical tie between Cain and Romney and Gingrich won the last 7 in a row. Visually, you can literally see the moment where Cain faded and Gingrich rose, but all the while, Romney's numbers hung around the low 20s, as they had most all of the time. Average: Romney +2.26

December 2011 (till mid-December): December was mostly the month of Gingrich. He won 14 of 17 polls and the other 3 were absolute ties with Romney. December 2011 was the only month of 2011 where Romney won not a single poll. By then, Cain was out of the race and the average was: Gingrich +9.31.

So, let's recap who the flavor of the month was:

2008: Palin
2009: Romney, Huckabee (Palin)
2010: Romney, Huckabee (Palin)

January 2011: Romney, Huckabee
February and March 2011: Huckabee, Romney
Nutshell: Q1, 2011: Dogfight between Romney and Huckabee, very close.

April 2011: Romney, Trump

May, June, July 2011: Romney (Perry rising in July)
Nutshell: these were Romney's 3 best months in polling.

August and September 2011: Perry
October 2011: Romney, Cain (Perry falls precipitously)
November 2011: Romney, Gingrich
December 2011: Gingrich
Nutshell: the last five months were the "find a replacement for Romney" months or "flavor of the month" months, or as Lordtroutbrown put it, "round robin" months.

After December 17th, surprisingly few national GOP nomination polls were taken. There are a smattering of them, which I recorded. Just two weeks after this last poll, Iowa held it's caucuses.


And the irony of this is that the guy who was barely registering in polling, Rick Santorum, ended up winning the Iowa Caucuses and later, nine other states, officially accumulating 255 delegates, in 2nd place, behind Romney:

View attachment 45758




Santorum's December average was 3.82% (4%). So, I think there's a lesson to be learned from this. A candidate who is way behind in the pack can indeed surprise.

On the D side, in 1992, Bill Clinton was at about 3% in January; Tsongas won the New Hampshire primaries, but then Clinton catapulted to the front. It's possible, especially in a crowded field. And I am absolutely thinking that this could happen in 2016 as well on the Republican side. In terms of this, I am especially keeping watch on Ohio Gov. Kasich, who, in an extremely tight GOP convention, could easily emerge as the best compromise candidate, ala Willkie 1940.

So, when I see this:

View attachment 45754


I am reminded of this:

View attachment 45753


The one common denominator between both cycles, at least for now, is the guy who, when he was not first place, was almost always second: Romney in the 2012 cycle and Jeb Bush in this cycle, at least until now.

So, if 2012 is our guide, then Jeb Bush will be your nominee in 2016.

But then there is Walker, who is also doing very well, which reminds me of a month like this:

View attachment 45756



So, yeah, anything can happen.

I think my Republican friends very often forget that I am simply reporting what is happening and try my best to give absolutely historical context. That's all.

On the other hand, this whole paradigm could get blown out of the universe. Trump could conceivable move into a permanently dominant position and then, that is that. Or, a 3%er like Kasich or Perry could jump to the front. Soon enough, we will all know.


One thing is, however, absolutely for sure: the DEM field is completely different than the GOP field.

Let's compare:

View attachment 45754

vs.

View attachment 45757

A +40 is an absolutely crushing margin, practically impossible, barring any unforseen catastrophe, to beat. And Hillary has been crushing the potential field in every single national nomination poll, hanging close to the 60% mark.

The 2016 D polling reminds me a lot of the 1980 (Reagan, Bush, Anderson), 1988 (Bush, Dole, Robertson, DuPont), 1996 (Dole, Buchanan, Forbes) and 2000 (Bush, McCain, Keyes) R primary polling and the 1984 (Mondale, Hart, Jackson - but only to a point) and 2000 (Gore, Bradley, Jackson, Gebhart) D primary polling, where, in these primary races, the frontrunner was so far ahead that the race was essentially non-competitive and everyone in the room knew it. You can make an argument that 1984 with Mondale was more competitive, and it was, but he was still so far along, at every turn, albeit with lesser margin, and then Hart imploded with his sex scandal. I don't remember any Democrat in 1984 putting his bet on anyone other than Mondale.

So, after many, many words, because I do respect you, I agree that with the GOP field, anything can happen. And contrary to what some noodle-brains may want to say, I do follow the numbers impassionately. If next month, Walker has a meteoric rise, then I will record and report with the same veracity as I have been with Trump. In fact, I suspect that Walker is indeed about to arise.

It's simple math, but I sincerely hope that this thread helps to give some recent historical context to all of this.

One more side note: Rand Paul is generally not doing as well in polling as his father, Ron Paul, did, both 4 and 8 years ago. And yet, in spite of that, Rand Paul could win Kentucky, he could get some delegates in Iowa and he could use Obama's backdoor caucus strategy from 2008 to get more delegates than people realize.

cereal_killer - my gut tells me that this thread will also interest you, not as an admin, but as a person who has expressed interest in the 2016 race.


:D

Wow.

You have a lot of time on your hands.


Not really. I had a lot of this stuff analysed a long, long time ago and just needed to insert the 2016 stuff.

But thanks for getting personal instead of using the information at hand to learn something. Especially since this data should be of good use for Conservatives/Republicans.

Don't bite the hand that feeds you. You only end up starving later.

:D

he would have to have the ability to understand it before he could actually respond to it.

As to the topic.... the GOP candidates ebbed and flowed during the 2012 campaign. The natural result of each coming forward, inciting interest and then disappointing their base for one reason or another. In Gingrich's case, it seemed a concerted effort on the part of the GOP establishment to get him out of the race.

That type of natural ebb and flow is what is being destroyed by faux news inserting itself into who the candidate will ultimately be by requiring anyone who participates in the debate to be in the first ten places in the average of the last five national polls. But the candidates should be investing in the early states, not in national polls. But faux news fixed it so the money is being put into ads on faux news... in order to get national poll numbers.

isn't that special?
Exactly.

This is supposed to be a process for states.

that's my feeling on the subject
 
On this thread:

Trump also leading in Zogby Analytics poll GOP nomination US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

LordBrownTrout made a very, very accurate and helpful statement, imo. I quote:

"If you remember the 2012, it was like round robin, each republican would take the lead and then fall back. I think they all were in the lead at one point."


Yes, absolutely right. Many of them did take the lead over Romney, at least for a short while.

And to prove it, I collected ALL of the GOP nomination polling data (national only) and recorded the results in one EXCEL table. I did this back at the end of 2011:

gop primary polling - Google Sheets

158 GOP nomination polls were released from November 2008 (yes, 2008) and the middle of December, 2011.

The table goes in reverse chronological order, with the most recent polls at the top.

To make it easier to navigate, I separated the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 from each other and then, starting in 2011, I separated that year by month.

The winning percentage is in red and bolded. Ties are not bolded, but rather, italic. A long stretch of wins for one candidate is then shaded in the boxes with the percentage, for instance:

View attachment 45753

I think my GOP/Conservative friends will find this enlightening and also very helpful. Here we go:

There was only one GOP nomination poll for 2012 taken in 2008; it was taken by Rasmussen one day after Obama's 2008 victory. The winner: Sarah Palin, with 64% and a blowout +55 over Romney. That poll fell way under the radar and was lost in the din of all the media attention over the 2008 election itself.

In 2009, there were 12 GOP nomination polls taken: Romney won 5, Huckabee won 5 and Palin won 2. Palin's wins were spead out through the year, while Romney's wins were concentrated most in July/August of 2009. Romney's high-water mark was 30%, Huck's was 32% and Palin's was 29%. I also did an averages column for each separated section, which makes little sense for an entire year, but makes sense once you get down to dividing in months in 2011. So, forget the averages for now.

In 2010, a mid-term election year, there were 23 GOP nomination polls: Romney won 15, Huckabee won 5, Palin won 2 and Gingrich won 1. Romney's high water mark was 29, early in 2010, but most of his values were between 18-23. He even won one Gallup poll, right at the beginning, with just 14%, with 67% of GOP voters undecided, once again evidence that not all was right with Gallup... Huck's high-water mark was 25, but as the year progressed, he moved farther down into the teens. Palin's high-water mark was 21 and both of the polls that she won were in November 2010, shortly after the 2010 mid-term elections, where he endorsements of certain GOP candídates, whether they played a role in the election or not, got her a lot of publicity. Gingrich won 1 poll, in July of 2010.

You should go and see all of the values for 2011 yourself, by month, but in a nutshell, including the MONTHLY average:

January, 2011: 5 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Average: Romney by just a hair: +0.13. TIE.

February, 2011: 3 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Average: Huckabee slightly ahead, by +1.34. STATISTICAL TIE.

March, 2011: 5 polls, dogfight between Romney and Huckabee. Huckabee won four of five, but they were all close. Average: Huckabee +1.60. STATISTICAL TIE.

So, the first quarter of 2011 was a fight mainly between Romney and Huckabee and it was all tied-up.

April, 2011: 9 polls, dogfight between Romney and TRUMP. Romney won 5, Trump won 2, there were 2 mathematical absolute ties. Trump's first poll win was a big margin (+9) but his second win was a statistical tie (+2). End of April was when President Obama released his long-form birth certificate, then came the National Correspondents dinner on the last day of April (Saturday) and then, on May 1 (Sunday), Osama bin Ladin was killed upon the orders of the POTUS For the first time in the 2012 cycle, Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump were included in polling. Average: Romney by just a hair: +0.43.

May, 2011: 6 polls, four of which Romney won. Guiliani won 1 and there was one mathematical tie. Trump was polled in the first four and then, after announcing that he wasn't running, no more. But Cain announced in May and his announcement dovetailed pretty cleanly with Trump's "NO", if I recall, and so at the end of May, for the first time, Cain and Giuliani were being polled. Huck also pulled out of consideration in May, so May 2011 was the month for some real shifts in the polling, which was to the advantage of Romney. Average: Romney +2.67

June, 2011 was around the time when Christian Conservatives (Hagee and Co.) met on more than one occasion, because they were unhappy with Romney's mormonism and with Huck now out of the picture, they were quite distressed. This was recorded many times over in the media, all over the place. So, pollsters began polling Sarah Palin again (she had falled somewhat to the wayside). But June 2011 was one of Romney's best months ever, he absolutely dominated the polling, having won 10 of 11 polls (Palin won the remaining poll). His high-water mark in June was 33 and his average was: 23.36%, +10.09. For the first time in the 2012, the GOP had a very clear front-runner, who was ahead by a landslide margin.

Likewise, in July, 2011, Romney dominated GOP nomination polling and won all 9 of 9 polls, with an average of +8.34. However, his percentage average fell some and Rick Perry's stock rose: he was in 2nd place in the last 5 polls of July.

August, 2011 is the month I then-dubbed the "month of two months", for in the first half, Romney was winning (he won the first 4 of 11 polls), but right at mid-month, favor shifted completely to Rick Perry (who won the other 7 polls). Perry's high-water mark was 38, if I recall, the second highest value for any primary percentage value among Republicans, behind Gingrich's 40 in December. Average: Perry +4.91. August was Perry's month.

September, 2011: this month was also Perry's month, he won 10 of 11 polls, but Romney took the lead in the last poll. Average: Perry +7.54. August was the month where pollsters who had dropped Rick Santorum picked him back up again and also started polling for John Huntsman. When Palin said she would not run, then they dropped her from polling as well.

October, 2011 saw 15 GOP nomination polls and Herman Cain's sudden rise in polling as Rick Perry fell, quite precipitously. Perry fell long before his famous "oops" at the November 9 debate. Romney won 8 polls, Cain won 5 and there was one mathematical tie between the two of them. Rick Perry fell into single digits for the most part. But Cain's wins mostly in the latter half of the month. Average: Romney +0.93. And his percentage average: 23.13, pretty much back to where he was in June. This is an important point to remember. So, October was a dogfight between Romney and Cain.

November, 2011: in November, we saw Newt Gingrich's rise in the polls and for the very first time, we saw a statistically very close 3-man race between Romney, Cain and Gingrich. Of 20 polls, Romney won 8, Cain won 4, there was a statistical tie between Cain and Romney and Gingrich won the last 7 in a row. Visually, you can literally see the moment where Cain faded and Gingrich rose, but all the while, Romney's numbers hung around the low 20s, as they had most all of the time. Average: Romney +2.26

December 2011 (till mid-December): December was mostly the month of Gingrich. He won 14 of 17 polls and the other 3 were absolute ties with Romney. December 2011 was the only month of 2011 where Romney won not a single poll. By then, Cain was out of the race and the average was: Gingrich +9.31.

So, let's recap who the flavor of the month was:

2008: Palin
2009: Romney, Huckabee (Palin)
2010: Romney, Huckabee (Palin)

January 2011: Romney, Huckabee
February and March 2011: Huckabee, Romney
Nutshell: Q1, 2011: Dogfight between Romney and Huckabee, very close.

April 2011: Romney, Trump

May, June, July 2011: Romney (Perry rising in July)
Nutshell: these were Romney's 3 best months in polling.

August and September 2011: Perry
October 2011: Romney, Cain (Perry falls precipitously)
November 2011: Romney, Gingrich
December 2011: Gingrich
Nutshell: the last five months were the "find a replacement for Romney" months or "flavor of the month" months, or as Lordtroutbrown put it, "round robin" months.

After December 17th, surprisingly few national GOP nomination polls were taken. There are a smattering of them, which I recorded. Just two weeks after this last poll, Iowa held it's caucuses.


And the irony of this is that the guy who was barely registering in polling, Rick Santorum, ended up winning the Iowa Caucuses and later, nine other states, officially accumulating 255 delegates, in 2nd place, behind Romney:

View attachment 45758




Santorum's December average was 3.82% (4%). So, I think there's a lesson to be learned from this. A candidate who is way behind in the pack can indeed surprise.

On the D side, in 1992, Bill Clinton was at about 3% in January; Tsongas won the New Hampshire primaries, but then Clinton catapulted to the front. It's possible, especially in a crowded field. And I am absolutely thinking that this could happen in 2016 as well on the Republican side. In terms of this, I am especially keeping watch on Ohio Gov. Kasich, who, in an extremely tight GOP convention, could easily emerge as the best compromise candidate, ala Willkie 1940.

So, when I see this:

View attachment 45754


I am reminded of this:

View attachment 45753


The one common denominator between both cycles, at least for now, is the guy who, when he was not first place, was almost always second: Romney in the 2012 cycle and Jeb Bush in this cycle, at least until now.

So, if 2012 is our guide, then Jeb Bush will be your nominee in 2016.

But then there is Walker, who is also doing very well, which reminds me of a month like this:

View attachment 45756



So, yeah, anything can happen.

I think my Republican friends very often forget that I am simply reporting what is happening and try my best to give accurate historical context. That's all.

On the other hand, this whole paradigm could get blown out of the universe. Trump could conceivable move into a permanently dominant position and then, that is that. Or, a 3%er like Kasich or Perry could jump to the front and sweep the field. This is so much energy is usually invested in IA, NH, SC, NV - the early states, to establish dominance. Soon enough, we will all know.


One thing is, however, absolutely for sure: the DEM field is completely different than the GOP field.

Let's compare:

View attachment 45754

vs.

View attachment 45757

A +40 is an absolutely crushing margin, practically impossible, barring any unforseen catastrophe, to beat. And Hillary has been crushing the potential field in every single national nomination poll, hanging close to the 60% mark. And this polling is including Vice-President Joe Biden, who I am personally quite sure is not going to enter the race and his followers are more likely than not going to break more for Hillary than for Sanders, because most of his folllowers are the 45 and older group, which Hillary dominates in D nomination polling. So, 60% today is likely to become 67% soon when Biden indicates that he is definitely not in. Now, if I am wrong about this, I will gladly eat my hat, but honestly, Biden is way too late. If he really wanted to run, 3 months ago would have been the time to start, not August or September.

The 2016 D polling reminds me a lot of the 1980 (Reagan, Bush, Anderson), 1988 (Bush, Dole, Robertson, DuPont), 1996 (Dole, Buchanan, Forbes) and 2000 (Bush, McCain, Keyes) R primary polling and the 1984 (Mondale, Hart, Jackson - but only to a point) and 2000 (Gore, Bradley, Jackson, Gebhart) D primary polling, where, in these primary races, the frontrunner was so far ahead that the race was essentially non-competitive and everyone in the room knew it. You can make an argument that 1984 with Mondale was more competitive, and it was, but he was still so far along, at every turn, albeit with lesser margin, that I don't remember any Democrat in 1984 putting his bet on anyone other than Mondale. I could include the 1988 (Dukakis, Jackson, Gore, Gebhardt, Simon) D primaries in this as well, but the polling did not show these lofty margins and Jesse Jackson got over 1,000 delegates at the convention. Dukakis won just 51.4% of the delegates at that convention, in the hot summer of 1988. 1988 on the D side was more contested that people may remember. There were also 14 officially declared D candidates, just 3 shy of the 2016 expected R record, but 8 of them, including Joe Biden's 1988 campaign, were unserious and went absolutely nowhere.

So, after many, many words, because I do respect you, I agree that with the GOP field, anything can happen. And contrary to what some noodle-brains may want to say, I do follow the numbers impassionately. If next month, Walker has a meteoric rise, then I will record and report with the same veracity as I have been with Trump. In fact, I suspect that Walker is indeed about to arise.

It's simple math, but I sincerely hope that this thread helps to give some recent historical context to all of this.

One more side note: Rand Paul is generally not doing as well in polling as his father, Ron Paul, did, both 4 and 8 years ago. And yet, in spite of that, Rand Paul could win Kentucky, he could get some delegates in Iowa and he could use Obama's backdoor caucus strategy from 2008 to get more delegates than people realize. People underestimate Rand Paul at their own peril. He could end up being one of the more serious candidates at the debates and outshine a lot of people.

cereal_killer - my gut tells me that this thread will also interest you, not as an admin, but as a person who has expressed interest in the 2016 race.


:D

I certainly appreciate the work you put into this, but I can assure you, no Republicans read it in its entirety.

To be fair, I have yet to see a conservative here say that Trump was going to win, though I haven't read everything.
 

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