Goodbye La Nina!

[Sunsettommy]

June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch! | NOAA Climate.gov

Well, that is NOAA's prediction, and they have done far better on prediction than you have, Silly Billy. Tell me, are you again going to deny an El Nino, even when we are in the hottest part? That was such a hoot.

The forecast is a WEAK El-Nino, possibly a MODOKI type.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Going, going................................................

I love it....Climate REANALYZER! "Give us fact and we'll falsify it to suit your needs" should be their motto...

1971-2000 base.

Ha ha ha....

 

[Billy_Bob]

June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch! | NOAA Climate.gov

Well, that is NOAA's prediction, and they have done far better on prediction than you have, Silly Billy. Tell me, are you again going to deny an El Nino, even when we are in the hottest part? That was such a hoot.

We will see... Again NOAA staff fail to look at volcanic aerosols..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Going, going................................................

I love it....Climate REANALYZER! "Give us fact and we'll falsify it to suit your needs" should be their motto...

1971-2000 base.

Ha ha ha....

I just love their moving of the goal posts in an effort to get a desired outcome.

 

[Old Rocks]

June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch! | NOAA Climate.gov

Well, that is NOAA's prediction, and they have done far better on prediction than you have, Silly Billy. Tell me, are you again going to deny an El Nino, even when we are in the hottest part? That was such a hoot.

The forecast is a WEAK El-Nino, possibly a MODOKI type.

LOL Now that sounds familiar. Wonder why? LOL

The chart goes to a 1 on the midline, with the upper outlier going to a 2. Of course, the lower outlier is that we are still in a neutral Enso in JFM.

 

[Sunsettommy]

June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch! | NOAA Climate.gov

Well, that is NOAA's prediction, and they have done far better on prediction than you have, Silly Billy. Tell me, are you again going to deny an El Nino, even when we are in the hottest part? That was such a hoot.

The forecast is a WEAK El-Nino, possibly a MODOKI type.

LOL Now that sounds familiar. Wonder why? LOL

The chart goes to a 1 on the midline, with the upper outlier going to a 2. Of course, the lower outlier is that we are still in a neutral Enso in JFM.

Do you know what a MODOKI is?

 

[Old Rocks]

Yes.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Yes.

Then you should know that warming will be limited.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Yes.

Then you should know that warming will be limited.

If there will be any at all. Given the drop globally of SST, I find any temp rise to be pretty much a no go and more likely the temp drop will continue..

 

[Old Rocks]

Yes.

Then you should know that warming will be limited.

OK, then we shall discuss this about a year from now. I do think that the up coming El Nino will put you in the same category as Silly Billy.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Yes.

Then you should know that warming will be limited.

OK, then we shall discuss this about a year from now. I do think that the up coming El Nino will put you in the same category as Silly Billy.

It is clear you haven't done much reading on Modoki events since they are not as widespread as the full sized El-Nino's are.

 

[Old Rocks]

Clear from my one word on the subject? LOL Folks we have a psychic here. LOL

 

[Sunsettommy]

Clear from my one word on the subject? LOL Folks we have a psychic here. LOL

Well it is clear you don't study much, since you STILL don't know what a Modoki event is,

From JAMSTEC

The El Niño Modoki

"El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. It is different from another coupled phenomenon in the tropical Pacific namely, El Niño. Conventional El Niño is characterized by strong anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (see figure below). Whereas, El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific (see figure below). Associated with this distinct warming and cooling patterns the teleconnections are very different from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Hence, the new phenomenon is of interest to the climate community."

It produces a very different weather effect than what a standard El-Nino produces, and less warming too.

 

[Old Rocks]

And?

 

[Sunsettommy]

Notice that Old Rocks doesn't have much to say on this lately while ignoring the part where I didn't dispute that La Nina is fading, even brought up the Modoki event that appears to be brewing.

old rocks few words,

"Yes."

"OK, then we shall discuss this about a year from now. I do think that the up coming El Nino will put you in the same category as Silly Billy."

"Clear from my one word on the subject? LOL Folks we have a psychic here. LOL"

"And?"

Meanwhile I make clear that I am looking for a MODOKI El-Nino effect,

"The forecast is a WEAK El-Nino, possibly a MODOKI type."

and,

"Then you should know that warming will be limited."

I think you have done enough here to show you are lacking a rational argument. I didn't dispute that some kind of El-Nino is coming, but suggesting that this time it will be a MODOKI type. You come back with bullcrap and evasions to what I am talking about.

 

[jc456]

June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch! | NOAA Climate.gov

Well, that is NOAA's prediction, and they have done far better on prediction than you have, Silly Billy. Tell me, are you again going to deny an El Nino, even when we are in the hottest part? That was such a hoot.

except silly socks, the weather patterns in middle america haven't changed. we are still cycling between warm and cold. until that stops, el nino ain't coming.

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Well then, we shall see.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Notice that Old Rocks doesn't have much to say on this lately while ignoring the part where I didn't dispute that La Nina is fading, even brought up the Modoki event that appears to be brewing.

old rocks few words,

"Yes."

"OK, then we shall discuss this about a year from now. I do think that the up coming El Nino will put you in the same category as Silly Billy."

"Clear from my one word on the subject? LOL Folks we have a psychic here. LOL"

"And?"

Meanwhile I make clear that I am looking for a MODOKI El-Nino effect,

"The forecast is a WEAK El-Nino, possibly a MODOKI type."

and,

"Then you should know that warming will be limited."

I think you have done enough here to show you are lacking a rational argument. I didn't dispute that some kind of El-Nino is coming, but suggesting that this time it will be a MODOKI type. You come back with bullcrap and evasions to what I am talking about.

The oscillations associated with MODOKI have already started. Its still up in the air if this will break nominal positive ranges. This thing is shaping up to be a non-starter as the La Niña pattern persists which will pull cold over the NH early this year.

 

[skookerasbil]

Not for nothing s0ns but nobody cares about the El Nino....to most folks, watching a group navel contemplation session is more compelling.

 

[skookerasbil]

I really do love this forum!