Go Left, Then Go Home

[Toro]

The progressives think that going even more woke is the key to winning in 2022. This would be a disaster. There are nearly 20 Democrats in tight races versus 2 for the Republicans. And that's before redistricting. Historically, the House has swung by on average 26 seats after the President has one his first term. Finally, driving out your base drives out the other side's base even more.

The political reality facing Democrats is stark. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Frontline” districts for protecting the majority include 6 seats that Donald Trump won in 2020, and 13 seats that Joe Biden won by less than 5 points. Data presented to Roll Call from the DCCC also shows that 18 frontline Democrats won their own elections by less than 5 points. And the results of reapportionment and redistricting will likely make things even worse for Democrats.​

​

As election gurus Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik showed in May, Republicans are currently defending only 2 real toss-up seats compared to 19 for Democrats — prior to any redistricting chaos.​

​

For Democrats to have any chance at succeeding in 2022 then, they must recognize the headwinds facing the party—plus the limited opportunities for their own gains—and adopt a coherent strategy that both appeals to core Democratic voters and potential converts in moderate-to-conservative districts. ...​

​

Indeed, the general result of polarizing election contests to achieve higher base turnout is more likely to hurt than help Democrats. Advocates of a base mobilization/high turnout strategy generally assume that only “their” nonvoters will show up at the polls, but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That view is contradicted by many political science studies. Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election — but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.)​

​

Apparently, their extreme political stances did more to turn out the other side to vote against them than to turn out their own side to vote for them. That is a sobering reminder that turnout of the base is no guarantee of electoral success.​

The Base Mobilization Fallacy

Just mobilizing the base won’t do the trick. Persuasion of moderates and Independents in swing districts will be critical in 2022.

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

Except that the base of the Democratic Party is not woke left. It's center to moderate left. That's why Biden won the nomination and the election, and why moderates have kept winning this year.

But I'm sure the Democratic leadership won't listen. The Left is uniquely bad at politics.

 

[Mac1958]

The progressives think that going even more woke is the key to winning in 2022. This would be a disaster. There are nearly 20 Democrats in tight races versus 2 for the Republicans. And that's before redistricting. Historically, the House has swung by on average 26 seats after the President has one his first term. Finally, driving out your base drives out the other side's base even more.

The political reality facing Democrats is stark. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Frontline” districts for protecting the majority include 6 seats that Donald Trump won in 2020, and 13 seats that Joe Biden won by less than 5 points. Data presented to Roll Call from the DCCC also shows that 18 frontline Democrats won their own elections by less than 5 points. And the results of reapportionment and redistricting will likely make things even worse for Democrats.​

​

As election gurus Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik showed in May, Republicans are currently defending only 2 real toss-up seats compared to 19 for Democrats — prior to any redistricting chaos.​

​

For Democrats to have any chance at succeeding in 2022 then, they must recognize the headwinds facing the party—plus the limited opportunities for their own gains—and adopt a coherent strategy that both appeals to core Democratic voters and potential converts in moderate-to-conservative districts. ...​

​

Indeed, the general result of polarizing election contests to achieve higher base turnout is more likely to hurt than help Democrats. Advocates of a base mobilization/high turnout strategy generally assume that only “their” nonvoters will show up at the polls, but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That view is contradicted by many political science studies. Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election — but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.)​

​

Apparently, their extreme political stances did more to turn out the other side to vote against them than to turn out their own side to vote for them. That is a sobering reminder that turnout of the base is no guarantee of electoral success.​

The Base Mobilization Fallacy

Just mobilizing the base won’t do the trick. Persuasion of moderates and Independents in swing districts will be critical in 2022.

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

Except that the base of the Democratic Party is not woke left. It's center to moderate left. That's why Biden won the nomination and the election, and why moderates have kept winning this year.

But I'm sure the Democratic leadership won't listen. The Left is uniquely bad at politics.

I've been concerned, since before Trump was even elected in 2016, that the reaction to him by the Left would go far too far. They can win if they stay moderate. But if they go hard Left with the PC and Identity Politics and defund the cops, etc., etc., it's their own fucking fault if they get their asses kicked.

Neither party seems to understand that there needs to be a separation between binary partisan hubris and reality. All they know is WE HAVE A MANDATE TO SHOVE IT ALL DOWN YOUR THROAT. Then, when they get tossed out, it doesn't occur to them to look in the goddamn mirror.

 

[pknopp]

The progressives think that going even more woke is the key to winning in 2022. This would be a disaster. There are nearly 20 Democrats in tight races versus 2 for the Republicans. And that's before redistricting. Historically, the House has swung by on average 26 seats after the President has one his first term. Finally, driving out your base drives out the other side's base even more.

The political reality facing Democrats is stark. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Frontline” districts for protecting the majority include 6 seats that Donald Trump won in 2020, and 13 seats that Joe Biden won by less than 5 points. Data presented to Roll Call from the DCCC also shows that 18 frontline Democrats won their own elections by less than 5 points. And the results of reapportionment and redistricting will likely make things even worse for Democrats.​

​

As election gurus Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik showed in May, Republicans are currently defending only 2 real toss-up seats compared to 19 for Democrats — prior to any redistricting chaos.​

​

For Democrats to have any chance at succeeding in 2022 then, they must recognize the headwinds facing the party—plus the limited opportunities for their own gains—and adopt a coherent strategy that both appeals to core Democratic voters and potential converts in moderate-to-conservative districts. ...​

​

Indeed, the general result of polarizing election contests to achieve higher base turnout is more likely to hurt than help Democrats. Advocates of a base mobilization/high turnout strategy generally assume that only “their” nonvoters will show up at the polls, but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That view is contradicted by many political science studies. Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election — but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.)​

​

Apparently, their extreme political stances did more to turn out the other side to vote against them than to turn out their own side to vote for them. That is a sobering reminder that turnout of the base is no guarantee of electoral success.​

The Base Mobilization Fallacy

Just mobilizing the base won’t do the trick. Persuasion of moderates and Independents in swing districts will be critical in 2022.

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

Except that the base of the Democratic Party is not woke left. It's center to moderate left. That's why Biden won the nomination and the election, and why moderates have kept winning this year.

But I'm sure the Democratic leadership won't listen. The Left is uniquely bad at politics.

While I've long said the Democrats will lose the House in 2022, is being bad at politics why they won the House and Senate under Trump?

Is being bad the reason neither party can not hold anything for very long?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

They can win if they stay moderate.

No chance of that.

 

[Rogue AI]

The progressives think that going even more woke is the key to winning in 2022. This would be a disaster. There are nearly 20 Democrats in tight races versus 2 for the Republicans. And that's before redistricting. Historically, the House has swung by on average 26 seats after the President has one his first term. Finally, driving out your base drives out the other side's base even more.

The political reality facing Democrats is stark. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Frontline” districts for protecting the majority include 6 seats that Donald Trump won in 2020, and 13 seats that Joe Biden won by less than 5 points. Data presented to Roll Call from the DCCC also shows that 18 frontline Democrats won their own elections by less than 5 points. And the results of reapportionment and redistricting will likely make things even worse for Democrats.​

​

As election gurus Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik showed in May, Republicans are currently defending only 2 real toss-up seats compared to 19 for Democrats — prior to any redistricting chaos.​

​

For Democrats to have any chance at succeeding in 2022 then, they must recognize the headwinds facing the party—plus the limited opportunities for their own gains—and adopt a coherent strategy that both appeals to core Democratic voters and potential converts in moderate-to-conservative districts. ...​

​

Indeed, the general result of polarizing election contests to achieve higher base turnout is more likely to hurt than help Democrats. Advocates of a base mobilization/high turnout strategy generally assume that only “their” nonvoters will show up at the polls, but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That view is contradicted by many political science studies. Stanford political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, for example, studied House races between 2006 and 2014 and found that highly ideological candidates who beat moderates for a party nomination indeed increased turnout in their own party in the general election — but they increased the opposition turnout even more. (The difference was between three and eight percentage points.)​

​

Apparently, their extreme political stances did more to turn out the other side to vote against them than to turn out their own side to vote for them. That is a sobering reminder that turnout of the base is no guarantee of electoral success.​

The Base Mobilization Fallacy

Just mobilizing the base won’t do the trick. Persuasion of moderates and Independents in swing districts will be critical in 2022.

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

Except that the base of the Democratic Party is not woke left. It's center to moderate left. That's why Biden won the nomination and the election, and why moderates have kept winning this year.

But I'm sure the Democratic leadership won't listen. The Left is uniquely bad at politics.

The base of the Democrat party is hard left progressive Marxist. Either you didn't get the memo or you're in denial.

 

[progressive hunter]

I've been concerned, since before Trump was even elected in 2016, that the reaction to him by the Left would go far too far. They can win if they stay moderate. But if they go hard Left with the PC and Identity Politics and defund the cops, etc., etc., it's their own fucking fault if they get their asses kicked.

Neither party seems to understand that there needs to be a separation between binary partisan hubris and reality. All they know is WE HAVE A MANDATE TO SHOVE IT ALL DOWN YOUR THROAT. Then, when they get tossed out, it doesn't occur to them to look in the goddamn mirror.

democrats havent been moderate in 100 yrs and the repubes in 50,,

both are leftwing extremist and getting worse by the day,,

 

[Mac1958]

The base of the Democrat party is hard left progressive Marxist. Either you didn't get the memo or you're in denial.

List out those who are advocating government ownership of all means of production and distribution.

I'm sure this will be easy for you. A really long list, I'm sure.

Oh, and please provide examples. Thanks in advance.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

While I've long said the Democrats will lose the House in 2022, is being bad at politics why they won the House and Senate under Trump?

The Dems had 28 more House seats after 2020 than after 2016 and 2 more Senate seats.
Is that your definition of "good at politics"?

 

[progressive hunter]

List out those who are advocating government ownership of all means of production and distribution.

I'm sure this will be easy for you. A really long list, I'm sure.

Oh, and please provide examples. Thanks in advance.

you keep forgetting progs work in baby steps and both partys have been working in that direction with regulations and owning the creation of corporations,,

 

[Mac1958]

you keep forgetting progs work in baby steps and both partys have been working in that direction with regulations and owning the creation of corporations,,

I'm just waiting for examples, not assumptions and extrapolations.

 

[Rogue AI]

List out those who are advocating government ownership of all means of production and distribution.

I'm sure this will be easy for you. A really long list, I'm sure.

Oh, and please provide examples. Thanks in advance.

Everyone one of them who supports single payer healthcare for a start. That list is long, look it up yourself. You're welcome.

 

[pknopp]

The Dems had 28 more House seats after 2020 than after 2016 and 2 more Senate seats.
Is that your definition of "good at politics"?

I didn't say they were "good". I'm saying both parties are the same where this is concerned.

 

[progressive hunter]

I'm just waiting for examples, not assumptions and extrapolations.

are you saying regs dont exist and a corporation doesnt need government permission to exist??

 

[Mac1958]

Everyone one of them who supports single payer healthcare for a start. That list is long, look it up yourself. You're welcome.

One issue isn't Marxism.

Good thing I wasn't holding my breath, Captain Hyperbole.

 

[Mac1958]

are you saying regs dont exist and a corporation doesnt need government permission to exist??

No.

Nor is it Marxism. Obviously.

Life is not binary.

 

[progressive hunter]

One issue isn't Marxism.

Good thing I wasn't holding my breath, Captain Hyperbole.

but one issue at a time is baby steps,,

 

[progressive hunter]

No.

Nor is it Marxism. Obviously.

Life is not binary.

didnt realize I was talking with an ignorant moron,,

well actually I did,,

 

[Mac1958]

but one issue at a time is baby steps,,

As I said, I have no use for assumptions and extrapolations. Or paranoia.

 

[Mac1958]

didnt realize I was talking with an ignorant moron,,

well actually I did,,

Oops, struck a nerve.

You clearly don't know what Marxism is. That's okay, neither do any other ignorant Trumpsters.

 

[progressive hunter]

As I said, I have no use for assumptions and extrapolations. Or paranoia.

you also have a problem with reality,,