GDP report is a five alarm siren warning -- we are headed towards stagflation

[Moonglow]

Currently the Dollar has been falling this week. It's down to 93.31 from highs of 94.xx last week.

Now this is due to the selling of bonds to provide extremely low interest rates for mortgage loans and stock purchases. (Market stimulus)

The problem is that the current rates for loans are below the inflation rate. The FED has caused a catastrophic bubble to form and don't want to pop it... because the second they stop the stimulus interest rates will no longer be artificially low and the high flying market will accurately tank tremendously. (All the leveraged stock purchases/positions will have to be dumped by investors)

Disappointing earnings are coming...so is a lean Christmas sales season. (Supply chain interruptions)

Growth stocks are what is driving this market. Ford's stellar profits were expected despite the bumbling CEO statements because of the backlog of demand for new vehicles. (They have been sold but just waiting to be delivered)

But it is an extremely small sector of the market and economy. Manufacturing is the backbone of our technology driven economy. But American manufacturing is just a snippet of the whole global manufacturing economy. And that economy is showing signs of real problems...orders have been standing around for so long they have been abandoned at this point. It started with microchips and has expanded to a LOT of materials like nylon (seats in automobiles) and kevlar (used for making tires).
The lack of sufficient energy(expensive energy) has also exacerbated the low supply of low priced commodities like sugar (used for ethanol) and cotton and coffee.

And now with a new tax structure looming corporations are waiting to see what evolves out of Washington DC so they can strategize against paying taxes...to find loopholes and possibly moving all operations and charter out of the country.

Just like it did during Oblama..Yet we recovered from quantitative easing and sequestration..

 

[Moonglow]

It all goes back to Trump with you people, doesn't it? Or Reagan. I guess it's a little too much of me to think that you'd accept some personal responsibility now and then, eh?

Joe Biden, the Democrat Party, and those who voted for them own this rotten economy, lock stock and barrel. Sorry, but you won't get to blame us until after Trump or another Republican takes office in 2024.

All I did was give an example I know you can't handle the truth yet there it is...

 

[xband]

Carter is one happy man today as all indications are Biden will be 20 times harder on the working class than Carter!! -OG

The Commerce Department reported today that the high-flying U.S. economy with a 6.7% rate of growth in the U.S. economy for the first half of this year crash landed in the third quarter (July-September) with an anemic rate of just 2 percent.

Those under the age of 40 probably don’t even know what that is – and they’ve certainly never experienced it up front and personal.

Here’s the official definition from Investopedia: Stagflation is characterized by slow economic growth, which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e. inflation)."

The last time we saw this phenomenon was in the 1970s during the era of presidents Nixon, Ford, and Carter. Years of persistently high inflation triggered a surge in unemployment. That then led to the term "misery index." The sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. It exceeded 18% in Carter’s last year in office.

And then it was…Jimmy we hardly knew ye. With the economy sagging, Carter lost a landslide election to Ronald Reagan.

Worse yet has been the expansion of welfare programs like food stamps and unemployment benefits (not tied to working). These free cash and benefit programs incentivized workers to stay out of the workforce and collect government payments that when added all up could be the equivalent of a $75,000 a year job in many states. The big surprise was that the labor force shrunk and companies had 11 million jobs they couldn’t fill.

The most worrisome trend is the almost overnight decline in business investment. Business investment or "Cap X," as it is sometimes called, is the seed corn of a productive economy.

Companies have slowed their investment spending in part because of the imminent threat of higher taxes and a steel fist of new regulations has cautioned businesses to hit the pause button.

Why invest when the politicians in Washington are threatening to tax away your earnings in the name of paying your "fair share?" Businesses that make profits are now demonized as enemies of the people in this new progressive culture.

The income redistributionists who seem to be driving the Democratic Party agenda are soon going to learn that there pixie dust economic doctrine called Modern Monetary Theory – which posits that Congress can spend and borrow ad infinitum -- is a giant hoax.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...-stephen-moore

A bunny rabbit in heat scared the bejesus out of the Peanut Man aka James Earl Carter.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

No, Democrats would provide the poor with funding to fix their windows.
Republicans would just throw them a newspaper

Democrats would steal money to fix the windows, pocket it. Then tell the poor that stealing newspapers was legalized. Republicans would give the poor a job and tell them to fix their own windows.

 

[Ordinary Guy]

No, Democrats would provide the poor with funding to fix their windows.
Republicans would just throw them a newspaper

the democrats create a larger poorer class each time they are elected

 

[Crepitus]

Carter is one happy man today as all indications are Biden will be 20 times harder on the working class than Carter!! -OG

The Commerce Department reported today that the high-flying U.S. economy with a 6.7% rate of growth in the U.S. economy for the first half of this year crash landed in the third quarter (July-September) with an anemic rate of just 2 percent.

Those under the age of 40 probably don’t even know what that is – and they’ve certainly never experienced it up front and personal.

Here’s the official definition from Investopedia: Stagflation is characterized by slow economic growth, which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e. inflation)."

The last time we saw this phenomenon was in the 1970s during the era of presidents Nixon, Ford, and Carter. Years of persistently high inflation triggered a surge in unemployment. That then led to the term "misery index." The sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. It exceeded 18% in Carter’s last year in office.

And then it was…Jimmy we hardly knew ye. With the economy sagging, Carter lost a landslide election to Ronald Reagan.

Worse yet has been the expansion of welfare programs like food stamps and unemployment benefits (not tied to working). These free cash and benefit programs incentivized workers to stay out of the workforce and collect government payments that when added all up could be the equivalent of a $75,000 a year job in many states. The big surprise was that the labor force shrunk and companies had 11 million jobs they couldn’t fill.

The most worrisome trend is the almost overnight decline in business investment. Business investment or "Cap X," as it is sometimes called, is the seed corn of a productive economy.

Companies have slowed their investment spending in part because of the imminent threat of higher taxes and a steel fist of new regulations has cautioned businesses to hit the pause button.

Why invest when the politicians in Washington are threatening to tax away your earnings in the name of paying your "fair share?" Businesses that make profits are now demonized as enemies of the people in this new progressive culture.

The income redistributionists who seem to be driving the Democratic Party agenda are soon going to learn that there pixie dust economic doctrine called Modern Monetary Theory – which posits that Congress can spend and borrow ad infinitum -- is a giant hoax.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...-stephen-moore

Two words:

Delta Variant.

 

[Moonglow]

the democrats create a larger poorer class each time they are elected

I am sure you don't have a link or a quote or even one stat to prove your opinion.

 

[Ordinary Guy]

I am sure you don't have a link or a quote or even one stat to prove your opinion.

I don't need one, you already know its true.

 

[Orangecat]

Is that why the stock market is higher, unemployment is dropping and companies are having record setting profits?

No.

 

[Ordinary Guy]

Income​

An individual’s likelihood of being a Democrat decreases with every additional dollar he or she earns. Democrats have a huge advantage (63 percent) with voters earning less than $15,000 per year. This advantage carries forward for individuals earning up to $50,000 per year, and then turns in the Republicans’ favor — with just 36 percent of individuals earning more than $200,000 per year supporting Democrats.

Interestingly, the median household income in the United States is $49,777 — right near the point where the Democratic advantage disappears and the Republicans take over.

About half of Democrats express satisfaction with their personal financial situation, compared with 61 percent of Republicans and 52 percent of Independents.

Hmm more to chew on-OG

Economic Demographics of Democrats & Liberals – Politics & Debt

Democrats attract minorities and those who are young, live in urban areas, have lower incomes, support labor unions and avoid religion.

www.debt.org

 

[JohnDB]

Just like it did during Oblama..Yet we recovered from quantitative easing and sequestration..

No...not even close.
The moment the market stimulus stops interest rates will double...
That's why the tapering...
They can't buy/borrow their way out of this mess they have caused. They have done too much for too long. That's the reason for our current mess...and it's going to be extremely expensive.

 

[rightwinger]

It all goes back to Trump with you people, doesn't it? Or Reagan. I guess it's a little too much of me to think that you'd accept some personal responsibility now and then, eh?

Joe Biden, the Democrat Party, and those who voted for them own this rotten economy, lock stock and barrel. Sorry, but you won't get to blame us until after Trump or another Republican takes office in 2024.

Yea…
I’ll take the economy
Record Stock Market, Low Unemployment, Low interest rates

The rest our President will fix once the supply lines are back to normal

 

[rightwinger]

the democrats create a larger poorer class each time they are elected

The economy always does better under Democrats
AFTER we clean up the messes Republicans left us

 

[Ordinary Guy]

A weaker dollar existed all through Trump, yet the GOP claimed we have the best economy in the world.


Trump says the dollar is "too strong" -- good luck weakening it

Trump says the dollar is "too strong" -- good luck weakening it

President says U.S. currency is overvalued, hurting exports, but there are 3 reasons lowering the greenback will be tough

www.cbsnews.com

There was little to no inflation then, the dollar still went further than it does today, lumber was 70% less, gas was 50% less, groceries again 50% less, used cars were not selling 40% over actual value. Everything the democrats touch makes the cost of living skyrocket

 

[Harpy Eagle]

When the last guy was hitting 2% GDP growth we were told it was the greatest economy in the history of the world.

odd how quickly these things change

 

[jbrownson0831]

Futures Rise, Ford Flashes Buy Signal; Here Comes Apple

Stocks closed at lows, despite big Microsoft, Google gains. Ford jumped late.

www.investors.com

Looks like things are looking up!

Sorry, must hurt your feelings to see America doing well.

Wow, you are blind even for a Dimmer.

 

[task0778]

When the last guy was hitting 2% GDP growth we were told it was the greatest economy in the history of the world.

odd how quickly these things change

Actually, the 1st 3 years of Trump's presidency, the average annualized GDP was 2.5%, with 3.1% in 2018 after his tax cuts went into effect. 2020 was a bad year with the Coronavirus, but that sure wasn't his fault. And his numbers were an improvement over Obama's; In his eight years in office, U.S. GDP growth averaged 1.62%.

True, it wasn't the greatest, but it was better than what it was.

 

[JohnDB]

Yea…
I’ll take the economy
Record Stock Market, Low Unemployment, Low interest rates

The rest our President will fix once the supply lines are back to normal

There's not a reasonable analyst out there suggesting that people invest in the current market bubble...in fact just the opposite. "Take the money and run for your lives" is what most are saying currently. Buy bond funds and commodities like gold, silver, and utilities. Maybe select REITs. Because the crash is coming...and it's going to be drastic.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Actually, the 1st 3 years of Trump's presidency, the average annualized GDP was 2.5%, with 3.1% in 2018 after his tax cuts went into effect. 2020 was a bad year with the Coronavirus, but that sure wasn't his fault. And his numbers were an improvement over Obama's; In his eight years in office, U.S. GDP growth averaged 1.62%.

True, it wasn't the greatest, but it was better than what it was.

I always said Trump was just marginally better than Obama. Oh, and 2018 was 3.0, not 3.1.

But, just for shits and grins, compare Obama's last 3 with Trump's first 3 since you are leaving off Trump's last year. Trump 2.5, Obama 2.44. And we all agree Obama sucks, but Trump was just barely better

 

[task0778]

I always said Trump was just marginally better than Obama. Oh, and 2018 was 3.0, not 3.1.

But, just for shits and grins, compare Obama's last 3 with Trump's first 3 since you are leaving off Trump's last year. Trump 2.5, Obama 2.44. And we all agree Obama sucks, but Trump was just barely better

According to the BEA and excluding 2009 cuz that year wasn't all his fault, for Obama's 1st 3 years you get 2.5%, 1.6%, and 2.2%. Which by my math comes out to 2.1% average. I think that is a little better than marginal and I think you cherry picked which years to use. I notice that you left off 2013. All told, and ignoring 2009, Obama comes in over his last 7 years at 2.1. That ain't marginally close to Trump's number IMHO. Wasn't very good either.