Gallup: Obama +2

[The Paperboy]

Gallup uses three different models. The "traditional" model has Obama +2.

From Gallup:

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error.

Full article here

 

[Caligirl]

Woooohooooo!

 

[The Paperboy]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. It’s the first time since September 25 that McCain’s support has reached 46%.

Full story here

 

[AllieBaba]

I can't wait for the dead silence that is going to follow this election. Followed by frantic proclamations of fraud, the stupidity of the American people, and finally the stubborn insistence that Obama really won and is the "real" president.

And finally, the mass migration to the drug stores for their depression meds.

 

[Caligirl]

Wooohoooo!

 

[jillian]

Awwwww... look, he's back because he went up a point. So cute. But you left out most of the story:

OVERALL:

John McCain's position in the Electoral College continued to deteriorate in the previous seven days. We are making the following adjustments, accordingly.

AR from Solid McCain to Likely McCain: The financial meltdown is lowering McCain's percentage here, but as of now, we do not believe a McCain win is seriously threatened. If Bill Clinton spent a week here advocating Obama, though, the tide could turn.

FL from Toss-Up to Leans Obama: We're still not completely convinced that the Sunshine State is in the Obama camp, but the polling data from many organizations suggest that Obama is doing well in the critical Tampa Bay area and elsewhere, and therefore he has at least a narrow lead. It goes without saying that there is zero chance that McCain can win without these 27 electoral votes, so this is one state where his campaign simply must reverse the tide.

MT from Solid McCain to Lean McCain: McCain thought he nailed down Big Sky Country when he picked an NRA favorite, Sarah Palin, for his ticket. But polls show it close enough for an Obama upset, especially if some of the third party candidates can collectively grab 5-8%. We still think McCain is the probable winner, but it will be no Bush landslide.

ND from Solid McCain to Lean McCain: ND has been swinging wildly this year. This usually guaranteed GOP state in presidential elections might be listening to its all-Democratic congressional delegation when they urge the state to vote Obama. McCain has been having problems in some farm states due to his agricultural policies and voting record.

WV from Likely McCain to Leans McCain: Good sources tell us that the economic downturn has made this most unlikely Obama state a possible surprise pick-up for the Democrat. WV went overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton in the May primary, and a McCain victory in November was then assumed (following on two Bush wins in the Mountain State). What a difference a financial meltdown can make. However, our sources caution that McCain is still narrowly favored, at least for now.

These changes result in the following adjustments to the Electoral College totals:

LAST WEEK:

Obama has 190 Solid, 49 Likely, and 39 Leaning electoral votes, for a total of 278, or 8 more than needed for election.

McCain has 143 Solid, 20 Likely, and 11 Leaning electoral votes.

THIS WEEK:

Obama has 190 Solid, 49 Likely, and 66 Leaning electoral votes, for a total of 305, or 35 more than needed for election.

McCain has 122 Solid, 30 Likely, and 22 Leaning electoral votes, for a total of 174.

One note about Virginia: We have preserved its toss-up status despite a series of polls showing Obama winning by double digits (such as yesterday's CNN-Opinion Research Corporation survey, with Obama at 53% and McCain at 43%). It's not that we think the polls are necessarily wrong. In fact, the Crystal Ball was the very first analyst website to call Virginia a toss up last spring, at a time when the McCain campaign denounced the very notion, and listed the state as "Solid Republican". Still, we have covered Virginia closely for almost forty years. We have yet to talk to a single experienced political observer in Virginia who believes that the state isn't relatively close. Almost all say, if Obama wins Virginia, it will be by two or three points--certainly not ten. So while Obama probably leads in Virginia today, as he does in almost all our remaining toss-ups, we're going to hold off tilting the state for now. This represents an abundance of caution, perhaps, but wise from our perspective. There is plenty of time to color in the whole map before Election Day.

Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Be careful with those pom poms

Still making me factcheck for that truthiness stuff, eh?

 

[CrimsonWhite]

Lets just wait and see where we are in 3 days. That will tell the story.

 

[Andrew2382]

god, polls are so meaningless, only poll I would every pay ettention too is the one the day b4 election day.

 

[Andrew2382]

Nov 4 will tell the story, not these polls

 

[jillian]

Lets just wait and see where we are in 3 days. That will tell the story.

I actually won't be confident about it til the day AFTER election day.... and even then, I might worry.

But the dear boy appears when McCain gains a point and slinks away when he loses.

It's kind of weird.

 

[jillian]

Interestingly, he seems to have forgotten one.

CBS) Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is entering the third and final presidential debate Wednesday with a wide lead over Republican rival John McCain nationally, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.

The Obama-Biden ticket now leads the McCain-Palin ticket 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, a 14-point margin. One week ago, prior to the Town Hall debate that uncommitted voters saw as a win for Obama, that margin was just three points.

Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain, CBS News/New York Times Survey Shows Major Swing Among Independents, Suggests McCain's Strategy May Be Hurting Him - CBS News

 

[jillian]

And this one:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

 

[Caligirl]

Lets just wait and see where we are in 3 days. That will tell the story.

Yes, the October 19th poll is the important one.

 

[Caligirl]

I actually won't be confident about it til the day AFTER election day.... and even then, I might worry.

But the dear boy appears when McCain gains a point and slinks away when he loses.

It's kind of transparent.

Hope you don't mind if I fixed your post....

 

[SwingVoter]

just did a quick look over the RCP data, and Obama's up 78-19 in electoral votes for states where the gap is within 5 pts, his electoral lead is much greater than his popular lead

In '92, Clinton got 370 EVs with just a 5.5 point plurality over HW Bush, Obama is coming close doing the same

 

[jillian]

Hope you don't mind if I fixed your post....

LOL! s'okay. That works.

 

[The Paperboy]

But the dear boy appears when McCain gains a point and slinks away when he loses.

It's kind of weird.

Just back from a week on the road in New England creating income not spreading it around.

 

[The Paperboy]

The Obamoonies are awfully defensive today...

 

[jillian]

Just back from a week on the road in New England creating income not spreading it around.

Well, welcome back, honey. I know we missed you.

 

[jillian]

The Obamoonies are awfully defensive today...

Nah...it's just the bushbots are getting desperate, so need to be chastised a bit more firmly.