Gallup Finds Unemployment Rises For Fourth Week In A Row, Cautions On BLS Data

[Jarhead]

The BLS ALSO believes that the underemployed and no-longer even trying to find work numbers are in the 18-20% range.

So I don't see why any of us think the Gallop Poll is any big deal.

the government has been telling us essantially the same thing for quite some time.

No they havent.
They are making the people find that out on their own.
Yes, they dont hide that information...they simply dont announce it.

I have told my children over the years that NOT telling us something we should know and forcing us to find out on our own is no different than lying to us.

For me to ask my son if he has any parking tickets and for him to say no and not tell me of his traffic tickets is the same thing as lying....even though I did not ask him specifically if he has any traffic tickets.

 

[pinqy]

So what you are saying is fuzzy math used for political purposes is ok depending on who is running the government?

I know that isn't exactly your words but it is in my opinion your intent.

How on earth are you getting that? First, the math is not fuzzy, it's pretty rigorous. Just because YOU don't understand statistics doesn't mean the math is fuzzy.
Second, I've said nothing to imply that I have any political preferences. I was saying the same things when Bush was president and idiot Liberals were trying to say the numbers were fudged.

Just because you're blindly partisan doesn't mean everyone else is.

First, the math is not fuzzy, it's pretty rigorous

If it's rigorous why is there any need to come back and revise the numbers?

Because the data isn't complete. The household survey numbers are NOT revised but a lot of other datasets are. Empolyment (non-farm payroll jobs) comes from a survey of businesses where, after initial contact, the establishments call/fax/email their employment numbers every month they're in the survey. The December numbers come out next week, so let's look at the process. The reference period is the Pay Period that contains the week of December 11-17 and reporting started December 18.. But if the pay period doesn't end until the 24th, the numbers won't be in on time. Or some establishments are lazy or forgetful and don't report on time.

Additionally, every March, BLS looks at the full list from UI records on employment for all companies registered with UI. That takes a few months to process and the result will not exactly match the March estimate. So with the new benchmark, the numbers are revised.

The revisions go both ways...there's no pattern of making things look better or worse, and the revisions are generally small (biggest adjustment I've seen was 0.7%, and the average is much smaller).

the BLS has been doing this for years looks like they would finally get the numbers right when they first release the numbers.

How? How do you think they could get all the data collected on time? How do you think an estimate will always exactly match a full count?

I've said nothing to imply that I have any political preferences. I was saying the same things when Bush was president and idiot Liberals were trying to say the numbers were fudged.

This is news to me. you aren't a liberal? Maybe you need to revise some of your other post.

Example? I have some liberal and some conservative views. I'm an extreme Centrist.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The BLS ALSO believes that the underemployed and no-longer even trying to find work numbers are in the 18-20% range.

So I don't see why any of us think the Gallop Poll is any big deal.

the government has been telling us essantially the same thing for quite some time.

No they havent.
They are making the people find that out on their own.
Yes, they dont hide that information...they simply dont announce it.I have told my children over the years that NOT telling us something we should know and forcing us to find out on our own is no different than lying to us.

For me to ask my son if he has any parking tickets and for him to say know and not tell me of his traffic tickets is the same thing as lying....even though I did not ask him specifically if he has any traffic tickets.

Not only is the above idiotic, it's also not true.

The BLS releases all the data:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[Full-Auto]

Lets check the accuracy of these reports


SURVEY SAYS!!!!

 

[Jarhead]

The BLS ALSO believes that the underemployed and no-longer even trying to find work numbers are in the 18-20% range.

So I don't see why any of us think the Gallop Poll is any big deal.

the government has been telling us essantially the same thing for quite some time.

No they havent.
They are making the people find that out on their own.
Yes, they dont hide that information...they simply dont announce it.I have told my children over the years that NOT telling us something we should know and forcing us to find out on our own is no different than lying to us.

For me to ask my son if he has any parking tickets and for him to say know and not tell me of his traffic tickets is the same thing as lying....even though I did not ask him specifically if he has any traffic tickets.

Not only is the above idiotic, it's also not true.

The BLS releases all the data:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

you could have easily said..."that is not true".....the "idiotic" part is childish.

I have never referred to any of your posts as idiotic...even though I have been able to prove them worng, inaccurate, or spin.

Grow up. You and I will likely have some interesting debates.

By the way...thanks for the correction.

 

[pinqy]

The BLS ALSO believes that the underemployed and no-longer even trying to find work numbers are in the 18-20% range.

So I don't see why any of us think the Gallop Poll is any big deal.

the government has been telling us essantially the same thing for quite some time.

No they havent.
They are making the people find that out on their own.
Yes, they dont hide that information...they simply dont announce it..

Yes, they do. Here's the Employment Situation News Release
The numbers for part time for economic reasons, marginally attached, discouraged, basic demographics, reason for unemployment, duration of unemployment are all there in the summary and all the details in the tables.

The NEWS MEDIA doesn't announce everything, but that's not BLS not announcing things.

 

[NYcarbineer]

No they havent.
They are making the people find that out on their own.
Yes, they dont hide that information...they simply dont announce it.I have told my children over the years that NOT telling us something we should know and forcing us to find out on our own is no different than lying to us.

For me to ask my son if he has any parking tickets and for him to say know and not tell me of his traffic tickets is the same thing as lying....even though I did not ask him specifically if he has any traffic tickets.

Not only is the above idiotic, it's also not true.

The BLS releases all the data:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

you could have easily said..."that is not true".....the "idiotic" part is childish.

I have never referred to any of your posts as idiotic...even though I have been able to prove them worng, inaccurate, or spin.

Grow up. You and I will likely have some interesting debates.

By the way...thanks for the correction.

Your post qualified as idiocy. Stop making idiotic posts, and I'll stop identifying them.

 

[NYcarbineer]

No they havent.
They are making the people find that out on their own.
Yes, they dont hide that information...they simply dont announce it.I have told my children over the years that NOT telling us something we should know and forcing us to find out on our own is no different than lying to us.

For me to ask my son if he has any parking tickets and for him to say know and not tell me of his traffic tickets is the same thing as lying....even though I did not ask him specifically if he has any traffic tickets.

Not only is the above idiotic, it's also not true.

The BLS releases all the data:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

you could have easily said..."that is not true".....the "idiotic" part is childish.

I have never referred to any of your posts as idiotic...even though I have been able to prove them worng, inaccurate, or spin.

Grow up. You and I will likely have some interesting debates.

By the way...thanks for the correction.

Ok. That's not true. Now tell us all why you posted something as fact that was easily researched to be proven not true.

 

[Jarhead]

Not only is the above idiotic, it's also not true.

The BLS releases all the data:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

you could have easily said..."that is not true".....the "idiotic" part is childish.

I have never referred to any of your posts as idiotic...even though I have been able to prove them worng, inaccurate, or spin.

Grow up. You and I will likely have some interesting debates.

By the way...thanks for the correction.

Ok. That's not true. Now tell us all why you posted something as fact that was easily researched to be proven not true.

I posted my perception.

Why?

Becuase I watch ABC Nightly News and I watch Fox News. And netiher reported what was in the link you offered.

So I erred...althouhgh...I will tell you....

I made it clear that they DONT HIDE IT....they just dont report it in press conferences or releases......

In other words...I would have to look for the information to get it.

So what I said was not so idiotic. Not everyone runs to "links" to see if there is information the Administration is not releasing in their press releases.

 

[pinqy]

Back to the OP. Let's compare the November Numbers:
BLS said the not seasonally adjusted rate for the week of November 6-12 (the reference week for the survey) was 8.2%, +-0.2 (so the "real" rate was between 8% and 8.4% at 90% confidence).
Gallup said it was 8.4% +- 0.7 (between 7.7% and 9.1% at 90% confidence. Not a statistically significant difference between the two.

And looking at the differences in methodology (image below) it's clear that Gallup won't be quite as accurate. Add in that they cannot seasonally adjust, we'll clearly get a different picture than looking at BLS data.

 

[Jarhead]

The BLS ALSO believes that the underemployed and no-longer even trying to find work numbers are in the 18-20% range.

So I don't see why any of us think the Gallop Poll is any big deal.

the government has been telling us essantially the same thing for quite some time.

No they havent.
They are making the people find that out on their own.
Yes, they dont hide that information...they simply dont announce it..

Yes, they do. Here's the Employment Situation News Release
The numbers for part time for economic reasons, marginally attached, discouraged, basic demographics, reason for unemployment, duration of unemployment are all there in the summary and all the details in the tables.

The NEWS MEDIA doesn't announce everything, but that's not BLS not announcing things.

Do you have a link opf ANY of the administration memebers publically offering the information up?

Or must one know how to find it on the internet to get the infdormation.

Is it difficult to do? No.

But that was my point. They let us find it...but they dont tell us straight forward...which was my point.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

How on earth are you getting that? First, the math is not fuzzy, it's pretty rigorous. Just because YOU don't understand statistics doesn't mean the math is fuzzy.
Second, I've said nothing to imply that I have any political preferences. I was saying the same things when Bush was president and idiot Liberals were trying to say the numbers were fudged.

Just because you're blindly partisan doesn't mean everyone else is.

If it's rigorous why is there any need to come back and revise the numbers?

Because the data isn't complete. The household survey numbers are NOT revised but a lot of other datasets are. Empolyment (non-farm payroll jobs) comes from a survey of businesses where, after initial contact, the establishments call/fax/email their employment numbers every month they're in the survey. The December numbers come out next week, so let's look at the process. The reference period is the Pay Period that contains the week of December 11-17 and reporting started December 18.. But if the pay period doesn't end until the 24th, the numbers won't be in on time. Or some establishments are lazy or forgetful and don't report on time.

Additionally, every March, BLS looks at the full list from UI records on employment for all companies registered with UI. That takes a few months to process and the result will not exactly match the March estimate. So with the new benchmark, the numbers are revised.

The revisions go both ways...there's no pattern of making things look better or worse, and the revisions are generally small (biggest adjustment I've seen was 0.7%, and the average is much smaller).


How? How do you think they could get all the data collected on time? How do you think an estimate will always exactly match a full count?

I've said nothing to imply that I have any political preferences. I was saying the same things when Bush was president and idiot Liberals were trying to say the numbers were fudged.

This is news to me. you aren't a liberal? Maybe you need to revise some of your other post.

Example? I have some liberal and some conservative views. I'm an extreme Centrist.

So they release incomplete data? Now that brilant give fuzzy math and the sheeple will start saying 2+2=5

 

[pinqy]

No they havent.
They are making the people find that out on their own.
Yes, they dont hide that information...they simply dont announce it..

Yes, they do. Here's the Employment Situation News Release
The numbers for part time for economic reasons, marginally attached, discouraged, basic demographics, reason for unemployment, duration of unemployment are all there in the summary and all the details in the tables.

The NEWS MEDIA doesn't announce everything, but that's not BLS not announcing things.

Do you have a link opf ANY of the administration memebers publically offering the information up?

Or must one know how to find it on the internet to get the infdormation.

Is it difficult to do? No.

But that was my point. They let us find it...but they dont tell us straight forward...which was my point.

The agency involved (BLS) puts it out in its public news release which you can subscribe to. Why would anyone else, who is simply referencing the report, have any obligation to reiterate the entire contents?

 

[pinqy]

So they release incomplete data? Now that brilant give fuzzy math and the sheeple will start saying 2+2=5

Yes they do. There's no other choice if you want timely info.

 

[daveman]

Obama had lots of help to get us where we are.

Some must think Obama the Uberman to do all this on his own.
Simple solutions for simple minds I suppose...

Obama's policies caused half of Congress to do nothing. It's better to wait on the fire truck instead of driving your car to the fire department while it's on fire.

And just what did the other half of congress do to help things?
Wait! I remember, named federal buildings.

You have a selective memory. Go look on Harry Reid's desk.

Remember the president is not congress's boss.

the problem is our 2 party corporate controlled system.

Some people think the President is Congress' boss. But that's entirely wrong.

The citizens are Congress' boss.

 

[daveman]

Just as I thought.

Gallup, which unlike the BLS, does not fudge, Birth/Die, or seasonally adjust its data, has just released its most recent (un)employment data.

Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 18.4% in mid-December, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment. This is up slightly from 18.1% at the end of November and similar to the 18.5% of a year ago.

Gallup Finds Unemployment Rises For Fourth Week In A Row, Cautions On BLS Data | ZeroHedge

You're searching everywhere for anything that confirms what you want to be true, while dismissing anything that shows the economy is improving.

Why?

Ask all those people who are underemployed if the economy is improving.

"Obama 2012 -- Who You Gonna Believe, Me Or Your Own Lyin' Bank Account?"

 

[daveman]

I search for the truth maybe you should do the same.

What you search for is anything that confirms your misconceptions.

It doesn't matter. The economy is improving. Your masters will soon be telling you it's in spite of Obama, not because of him. Prepare to change your story.

show the specific policy that is causing this minor improvement.

Thats where you fall apart.

But go ahead and try.

Obama spoke it into being.

 

[daveman]

show the specific policy that is causing this minor improvement.

Thats where you fall apart.

But go ahead and try.

Hell the government will say the economy is improving but it doesn't mean the economy is improving. I need more than fluff words to show me the economy is improving. I believe what I see and Gallup verifies my belief.

The only reason you're quoting Gallup is that you believe it shows the economy is getting worse. If it showed the economy was improving you'd be quoting someone or something else.

Again, the evidence is overwhelming. Even if you stick to nothing but FOX and Rush, eventually they'll be telling you the same thing. You need to get ready for the new story - that the economy IS improving, but it's got nothing to do with Obama. It'll be mildly disconcerting for a day or two, but you'll get over it.

Your claim that the economy is improving is based on...what? Obama's say-so? That may be good enough for you, but thinking people require data.

 

[daveman]

The only reason you're quoting Gallup is that you believe it shows the economy is getting worse. If it showed the economy was improving you'd be quoting someone or something else.

Again, the evidence is overwhelming. Even if you stick to nothing but FOX and Rush, eventually they'll be telling you the same thing. You need to get ready for the new story - that the economy IS improving, but it's got nothing to do with Obama. It'll be mildly disconcerting for a day or two, but you'll get over it.

Nope the reason I used this is to show that it verifies what I have been saying all along.





The economy is not in recovery it is not getting better. Right now we need the truth not some fluff campaign words from obama.

From FOX News
"Fair and Balanced"
December 28, 2011:

U.S. GDP is in the midst of an expansion that most economists put at about 2.5% for the current quarter. Some experts expect that to rise to 3% next year...

U.S. unemployment has begun to drop and has fallen from more than 10% two years ago to 8.6% last month. The economy is currently creating about 150,000 jobs a month..

The only reason you're quoting Fox is that you believe it shows the economy is getting better. If it showed the economy was worsening you'd be quoting someone or something else.

Sound familiar?

 

[Jarhead]

Yes, they do. Here's the Employment Situation News Release
The numbers for part time for economic reasons, marginally attached, discouraged, basic demographics, reason for unemployment, duration of unemployment are all there in the summary and all the details in the tables.

The NEWS MEDIA doesn't announce everything, but that's not BLS not announcing things.

Do you have a link opf ANY of the administration memebers publically offering the information up?

Or must one know how to find it on the internet to get the infdormation.

Is it difficult to do? No.

But that was my point. They let us find it...but they dont tell us straight forward...which was my point.

The agency involved (BLS) puts it out in its public news release which you can subscribe to. Why would anyone else, who is simply referencing the report, have any obligation to reiterate the entire contents?

They dont.
Which is my point.

Dam sure they would if it were positive news for the administration.
And that too is my point.