Job openings in October slumped to the lowest level since February 2021, Indeed measure shows

[Zincwarrior]

Sounds like there is going to be another rate cut in Dec.
Too bad Powell is playing politics with the fed rate. It could
have been avoided.

Sounds like there is going to be a recession in December.

 

[Meister]

Sounds like there is going to be a recession in December.

Zinc, you've said this all through the year. So far earnings that have been released
from the private sector in the 4th quarter have been above estimates..
You're like the Boy Who Cried Wolf.

 

[task0778]

Sounds like there is going to be another rate cut in Dec.
Too bad Powell is playing politics with the fed rate. It could
have been avoided.

He's got a tough job balancing inflation against job growth. If inflation ticks up again, what's he gonna do? Another rate cut could increase inflation but maybe help job growth.

 

[Meister]

View attachment 1181475

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/06/job-cuts-accelerate-october-layoffs-trump/

Layoffs accelerated in October, pushing 2025 job cuts to levels typically seen in recessions, according to newly released data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a private firm that tracks workplace reductions.

U.S. employers have announced 1.1 million layoffs so far this year — the largest reading since the pandemic recession and on par with 2008 and 2009 job cuts during the Great Recession, the firm’s figures show. The data includes a recent spate of layoffs at major companies such as UPS, Amazon and Target, and adds to growing concern about a labor market slowdown.

Employers cited cost-cutting and artificial intelligence as the top two reasons for job reductions in October.

“We’re entering new territory with these layoffs in October,” said John Challenger, the firm’s CEO. “We haven’t seen mega-layoffs of the size that are being discussed now — 48,000 from UPS, potentially 30,000 from Amazon — since 2020 and before that, since the recession of 2009. When you see companies making cuts of this size, it does signal a real shift in direction.” (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.)

A lot of government jobs fall into this category, it's what happens when you are finally dealing
with a bloated government. AI will have an impact, but hardly because of Trump. Next year should
be a good year as Businesses from abroad are setting up shop over here to avoid the tariffs.

 

[Meister]

He's got a tough job balancing inflation against job growth. If inflation ticks up again, what's he gonna do? Another rate cut could increase inflation but maybe help job growth.

"If inflation ticks up again"

 

[Zincwarrior]

Zinc, you've said this all through the year. So far earnings that have been released
from the private sector in the 4th quarter have been above estimates so far.
You're like the Boy Who Cried Wolf.

Thats why the economy wa the driving force behind elections two days ago.

 

[Meister]

Thats why the economy wa the driving force behind elections two days ago.

The numbers don't lie. Your party and the media do lie.

 

[my2¢]

The shutdown has hit the Mid-Atlantic region hard, meanwhile the Pacific region did amazingly in adding private sector jobs:

ADP private sector jobs report

 

[task0778]

"If inflation ticks up again"

Sure. But I think it will IF trump leaves the tariffs in place and unchanged. Some say the estimated increase in revenue from the tariffs could be $400-$500 billion annually, right? So, American consumers are essentially paying more for the same damn thing and that is inflationary. And don't give me the crap about foreign exporters paying for the tariffs, that is BS.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Sounds like there is going to be a recession in December.

What was Q3 GDP?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Sure. But I think it will IF trump leaves the tariffs in place and unchanged. Some say the estimated increase in revenue from the tariffs could be $400-$500 billion annually, right? So, American consumers are essentially paying more for the same damn thing and that is inflationary. And don't give me the crap about foreign exporters paying for the tariffs, that is BS.

What has the inflationary impact of the tariffs been so far? Link?

 

[task0778]

What has the inflationary impact of the tariffs been so far? Link?

Very minor so far. But it takes awhile for inflation to kick in, remember when the democrats blamed the high inflation rate during Biden's term on Trump? Same deal, Trump kinda set the table for inflation to take off when Biden came into office, and it did. Partly because the democrats passed that stupid Relief Act that pump a couple trillion bucks into the economy that made inflation worse than it would have been.

In this case, the tariffs aren't that influential cuz the amount of money ain't that much and not all at once. But the tariffs ARE inflationary, history tells us that. I think we'll see a slow but fairly steady climb in inflation rates over the rest of Trump's term, unless he cancels them.

 

[Zincwarrior]

What was Q3 GDP?

You tell me.

 

[OhPleaseJustQuit]

Per Indeed, job openings fell to their lowest level in 4 1/2 years. It represents a 3.5% decline from August.

Job openings in October slumped to the lowest level since February 2021, Indeed measure shows

Under normal conditions, the BLS on Tuesday would have reported its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

www.cnbc.com

Job openings in October slumped to the lowest level since February 2021, Indeed measure shows​

Key Points

• Employment opportunities hit their lowest level in more than 4½ years as October came to a close and the government shutdown dragged on, according to data from jobs site Indeed.
• Indeed’s dashboard of indicators also has shown a decline in salary offerings as job advertisements have declined.

Employment opportunities hit their lowest level in more than 4½ years as October came to a close and the government shutdown dragged on, according to data from jobs site Indeed.

The firm’s Job Postings Index fell to 101.9 as of Oct. 24, the most recent point for which data is available. That’s the lowest since early February 2021 for a measure that uses February 2020 as a baseline value of 100.


The level represents a 0.5% decline from the beginning of the month and a roughly 3.5% tumble from mid-August, the latest point from which Bureau of Labor Statistics data is available.

Under normal conditions, the BLS on Tuesday would have reported its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a measure that Federal Reserve officials watch closely for indications of slack in the jobs market. With the shutdown on the precipice of being the longest in history, economists and policymakers are left to look at alternative data for big-picture indicators.

The most recent JOLTS report, for August, also indicated an ongoing decline in openings. The BLS reported that job openings totaled 7.23 million, about level with July but down 7% from January.

Indeed’s dashboard of indicators also has shown a pullback in salary offerings as job advertisements have declined. Year-over-year wages as judged by salary offerings in Indeed postings rose 2.5% in August, down from 3.4% in January.

A softening labor market has generated concern from Fed officials. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee last week voted 10-2 to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%.


Officials have cited rising risks to the labor market taking precedence over ongoing concerns about inflation holding nearly a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target.

“Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings,” Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday. “We’re looking at a panoply of data, and those are real time. We’re not waiting on the unemployment report. There’s reason to be concerned, because there’s a slight uptick in the unemployment rate over the summer.”

.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.





.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Very minor so far. But it takes awhile for inflation to kick in, remember when the democrats blamed the high inflation rate during Biden's term on Trump? Same deal, Trump kinda set the table for inflation to take off when Biden came into office, and it did. Partly because the democrats passed that stupid Relief Act that pump a couple trillion bucks into the economy that made inflation worse than it would have been.

In this case, the tariffs aren't that influential cuz the amount of money ain't that much and not all at once. But the tariffs ARE inflationary, history tells us that. I think we'll see a slow but fairly steady climb in inflation rates over the rest of Trump's term, unless he cancels them.

Very minor so far. But it takes awhile for inflation to kick in,

I would agree it takes changes in monetary policy awhile to kick in, but why wouldn't tariffs paid immediately kick in?

But the tariffs ARE inflationary, history tells us that.

Where did history tell us that?
From 1789-1913, when they were almost the entire source of federal revenue?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

You tell me.

You don't know? You don't have evidence of weakening GDP growth over the last 3 quarters to support your claim of a December recession?

You're just guessing? Hoping?

 

[task0778]

Very minor so far. But it takes awhile for inflation to kick in,

I would agree it takes changes in monetary policy awhile to kick in, but why wouldn't tariffs paid immediately kick in?

From CBS News, Oct 22:


Trump administration tariffs imposed this year on dozens of nations and a range of industries are fueling inflation, especially for goods that are widely imported into the U.S., a recent analysis shows.

Product categories seeing some of the biggest price hikes due to tariffs include furniture, car parts, electronics and musical instruments, according to economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The findings are based on research models estimating tariff-related price hikes and drawing on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a widely used gauge of inflation.

Importers bear the cost of tariffs, typically passing at least some of the added expenses to consumers, economic research shows.

The St. Louis Fed researchers found that companies passed 35% of tariff costs onto consumers from May through July. Other research from Goldman Sachs suggests that businesses could eventually pass on as much as 55% of added tariff costs to consumers. Companies would swallow 22% of the extra costs, while foreign exporters would absorb 18% of the expenses, economists with the investment bank found.

How much could inflation rise?​

Businesses are expected to continue experimenting with pricing based on how tariffs affect their own costs, according to Max Dvorkin, an economist and one of the authors the St. Louis Fed study.

"Even if you don't change tariffs anymore, the dynamics of prices will continue to evolve and affect consumers over the next few months," he said.

The regional Fed bank found that tariffs account for a sizable share of recent inflation. Between June through August, the tariffs imposed by President Trump added 0.5 percentage points to the headline PCE rate, which averaged 2.85% during that period, according to the findings. The levies added 0.4 percentage points to core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices and which hovered around 2.9% during that three-month period, the study found.

"Tariff measures are already exerting measurable upward pressure on consumer prices," the economists conclude.

As of August, the Consumer Price Index was up 2.9% from a year ago after, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target. Inflation as measured by the index had fallen in April to a low of 2.3%, but has flared during the second half of the year. The Labor Department is expected to release CPI data for September, which has been delayed by the government shutdown, on Friday.

The St. Louis Fed study notes that tariffs haven't driven up consumer prices as sharply as some experts had predicted. That's chiefly because many businesses are waiting to see where tariff rates settle before they adjust their prices, according to the research.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-tariffs-trump-prices-co

 

[task0778]

But the tariffs ARE inflationary, history tells us that.

Where did history tell us that?
From 1789-1913, when they were almost the entire source of federal revenue?

Regarding inflation, a more relevant episode was the Nixon import surcharge of 1971. Facing balance-of-payments issues, President Nixon imposed a temporary 10% tariff (surcharge) on imports. While short-lived, it contributed modestly to price increases in late 1971 by raising import costs in an already inflation-prone environment (the US was coming off the gold standard and experiencing demand-pull inflation). The effect was limited by its brevity (lifted in less than six months)—essentially a one-time price level adjustment. A later example is President George W. Bush’s 2002 steel tariffs (30% duties on steel). These were in effect for about 20 months. Domestic steel prices spiked, contributing to higher prices for products like appliances and cars that use steel. One study found the 2002 steel tariffs raised US steel prices by roughly 15% and cost more American jobs in steel-using industries than the total number of people employed in the US steel industry at the time, leading the Bush administration to withdraw the tariffs early to avoid a broader economic fallout (and WTO sanctions). This pattern—short-term relief for one sector overshadowed by diffuse costs elsewhere—is a recurring theme.

The 2018–2019 US tariff spree under the Trump administration offers the most pertinent data on tariff-driven inflation in the past decade. Starting in early 2018, the US levied tariffs on solar panels and washing machines (safeguard tariffs), then on steel and aluminum imports (25% and 10% under Section 232 national security provisions). These were followed by several rounds of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, ultimately covering about $370 billion worth of imports from China (at rates varying between 10% and 25%) by late 2019. By 2020, approximately 65% of all US imports from China were subject to new tariffs, equivalent to 12% of total US goods imports (Nie et al., 2021). This was an unprecedented tariff scale for the modern US economy. Studies have dissected the effects of this episode in detail. A robust finding is that import prices for targeted goods rose essentially one-for-one with the tariffs, indicating US importers and consumers bore virtually the entire cost increase (Nie et al., 2021) (Fajgelbaum et al., 2020). Foreign exporters did not significantly lower their prices to offset the tariffs, so the duties were passed through fully into US domestic prices—a classic case of a tax on consumers.

The Inflationary and Economic Resilience Risks of Tariffs: A US-Centered Analysis of Domestic and Global Impacts - Atlas Investment Management

Download PDF Written By: Stephen Swensen Date: Tuesday, March 4, 2025Subject: The Inflationary and Economic Resilience Risks of Tariffs: A US-Centered Analysis of Domestic and Global ImpactsIntroductionTariffs are broadly defined as taxes on imported goods, implemented to raise the cost of...

atlasinvestmentmgmt.com

To me, it's crystal clear: when prices are raised for the same thing, you get inflation. It can be immediate or delayed, and the inflationary impact can be minor or major depending on the circumstances.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

From CBS News, Oct 22:


Trump administration tariffs imposed this year on dozens of nations and a range of industries are fueling inflation, especially for goods that are widely imported into the U.S., a recent analysis shows.

Product categories seeing some of the biggest price hikes due to tariffs include furniture, car parts, electronics and musical instruments, according to economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The findings are based on research models estimating tariff-related price hikes and drawing on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a widely used gauge of inflation.

Importers bear the cost of tariffs, typically passing at least some of the added expenses to consumers, economic research shows.

The St. Louis Fed researchers found that companies passed 35% of tariff costs onto consumers from May through July. Other research from Goldman Sachs suggests that businesses could eventually pass on as much as 55% of added tariff costs to consumers. Companies would swallow 22% of the extra costs, while foreign exporters would absorb 18% of the expenses, economists with the investment bank found.

How much could inflation rise?​

Businesses are expected to continue experimenting with pricing based on how tariffs affect their own costs, according to Max Dvorkin, an economist and one of the authors the St. Louis Fed study.

"Even if you don't change tariffs anymore, the dynamics of prices will continue to evolve and affect consumers over the next few months," he said.

The regional Fed bank found that tariffs account for a sizable share of recent inflation. Between June through August, the tariffs imposed by President Trump added 0.5 percentage points to the headline PCE rate, which averaged 2.85% during that period, according to the findings. The levies added 0.4 percentage points to core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices and which hovered around 2.9% during that three-month period, the study found.

"Tariff measures are already exerting measurable upward pressure on consumer prices," the economists conclude.

As of August, the Consumer Price Index was up 2.9% from a year ago after, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target. Inflation as measured by the index had fallen in April to a low of 2.3%, but has flared during the second half of the year. The Labor Department is expected to release CPI data for September, which has been delayed by the government shutdown, on Friday.

The St. Louis Fed study notes that tariffs haven't driven up consumer prices as sharply as some experts had predicted. That's chiefly because many businesses are waiting to see where tariff rates settle before they adjust their prices, according to the research.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-tariffs-trump-prices-co

The St. Louis Fed study notes that tariffs haven't driven up consumer prices as sharply as some experts had predicted.

Right, so just saying it's inflationary isn't correct.

For now, they're (mostly) eating the cost, not passing it along.
Maybe they never will fully pass it along.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Regarding inflation, a more relevant episode was the Nixon import surcharge of 1971. Facing balance-of-payments issues, President Nixon imposed a temporary 10% tariff (surcharge) on imports. While short-lived, it contributed modestly to price increases in late 1971 by raising import costs in an already inflation-prone environment (the US was coming off the gold standard and experiencing demand-pull inflation). The effect was limited by its brevity (lifted in less than six months)—essentially a one-time price level adjustment. A later example is President George W. Bush’s 2002 steel tariffs (30% duties on steel). These were in effect for about 20 months. Domestic steel prices spiked, contributing to higher prices for products like appliances and cars that use steel. One study found the 2002 steel tariffs raised US steel prices by roughly 15% and cost more American jobs in steel-using industries than the total number of people employed in the US steel industry at the time, leading the Bush administration to withdraw the tariffs early to avoid a broader economic fallout (and WTO sanctions). This pattern—short-term relief for one sector overshadowed by diffuse costs elsewhere—is a recurring theme.

The 2018–2019 US tariff spree under the Trump administration offers the most pertinent data on tariff-driven inflation in the past decade. Starting in early 2018, the US levied tariffs on solar panels and washing machines (safeguard tariffs), then on steel and aluminum imports (25% and 10% under Section 232 national security provisions). These were followed by several rounds of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, ultimately covering about $370 billion worth of imports from China (at rates varying between 10% and 25%) by late 2019. By 2020, approximately 65% of all US imports from China were subject to new tariffs, equivalent to 12% of total US goods imports (Nie et al., 2021). This was an unprecedented tariff scale for the modern US economy. Studies have dissected the effects of this episode in detail. A robust finding is that import prices for targeted goods rose essentially one-for-one with the tariffs, indicating US importers and consumers bore virtually the entire cost increase (Nie et al., 2021) (Fajgelbaum et al., 2020). Foreign exporters did not significantly lower their prices to offset the tariffs, so the duties were passed through fully into US domestic prices—a classic case of a tax on consumers.

The Inflationary and Economic Resilience Risks of Tariffs: A US-Centered Analysis of Domestic and Global Impacts - Atlas Investment Management

Download PDF Written By: Stephen Swensen Date: Tuesday, March 4, 2025Subject: The Inflationary and Economic Resilience Risks of Tariffs: A US-Centered Analysis of Domestic and Global ImpactsIntroductionTariffs are broadly defined as taxes on imported goods, implemented to raise the cost of...

atlasinvestmentmgmt.com

To me, it's crystal clear: when prices are raised for the same thing, you get inflation. It can be immediate or delayed, and the inflationary impact can be minor or major depending on the circumstances.

To me, it's crystal clear: when prices are raised for the same thing, you get inflation.

When government handouts for solar panels, for instance, hide some of the actual cost of the tariffed goods,
we're less likely see true customer declines in demand in reaction to higher import prices.