Future Security Concerns


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Dec 12, 2013
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Being entirely hypothetical, I figured this belonged here best. :)

Since the site says these forums are for informational purposes and are kept as a consultable database, let's make some predictions and see which come true. We'll check back here in the coming years and see who was right. :)

Mine: Iran, North Korea, or someone else will "loose" a nuclear weapon and a terrorist proxy will deploy and detonate it somewhere in Israel. With how narrow Israel is, could do it with a ship right off shore bypassing border security altogether. Fear of subsequent detonations and fallout would prove more devastating than the explosion itself. But it could force a nuclear response or "nothing left to lose" response from Israel causing her to attack whoever made the nuke, or provided aid with the plan. Unfortunately, any event without a zero chance of occuring, projecting foward has a 100% chance of occuring. As long as some countries declare themselves wanting to destroy Israel, this sort of event is bound to occur eventually.

Another possibility of much greater concern is a terrorist state directly, or by proxy, will detonate a nuke in low-orbit over the US or Europe and use the EMP to destroy most modern infrastructure. Without power, the economic power wielded ceases to exist. A modified version is someone detonates a nuke over themselves so the tv's and internet goes down then proceeds to massively attack whoever they'd wanted to but couldn't because of prying eyes. Without public dissent, governments have nothing holding them back from doing whatever they want to do. And without tv and the internet, public has no ability to know what's going on across an ocean.

Development of WMD that are discreet and therefore more easily used without public outcry. A nuclear explosion is a very obvious event that's hard to miss. Consequently, not since WWII have them been used in anger. But there's any number of methods to attack massively without a nuclear weapon. Be it weather modification (cloud seeding and too much rain, or not enough rain,) bombing certain volcanos with magma plugs (Vesuvius et al.)postponing eruptions (thus unplugged would erupt,) dunno if it's possible, but destabilizing a faultline to cause an earthquake doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility. Biological and genetic weapons targetted specific groups of people would appear as normal outbreaks and no one'd know a government caused it (HIV always seemed curiously specific showing up in gay populations initially.)

So far, the west has benefitted from far outpacing would-be enemy nations' technology. But projected foward they're going to catch up and eventually possess the same technology we do today. I fear a reckoning is coming. Not the conventional worry of superpower vs superpower, but rather ideology vs ideology.

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