320 Years of History
Gold Member
We hear the rhetoric over and over:
It's clear that Mr. Trump, the so-called "outsider," has discovered, like insiders before him, how to use the single greatest force fueling discontent within America: economic nationalism. The politics of economic nationalism have long driven insurgent candidacies, from Ross Perot to Pat Buchanan to Newt Gingrich. Mr. Trump now exploits it, promising to get tough on China, build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico, and more generally "make America great again."
Economic nationalists score points, of course, with angry and economically unsavvy populists when they suggest foreign countries are cashing in at America's expense. (Trump: Mexico is "killing us on trade"; NAFTA is a "total disaster.") But rarely, if ever, do they ever attempt to actually present what the whole of the professional economics world understands about free trade.
And just what is the economics community's stance on free trade with China and other low cost producers of intermediate and finished goods? Well, taking just one macroeconomics class in high school would give one the answer. Free trade increases prosperity for Americans -- and the citizens of all participating nations -- by allowing consumers to buy more, better-quality products at lower costs. It drives economic growth, enhanced efficiency, increased innovation, and the greater fairness that accompanies a rules-based system. These benefits increase as overall trade -- exports and imports -- increases.
But that's just the obvious effects of free trade. Rarely, if ever, do they stop to concede how truly vulnerable the U.S. has become to what happens when foreign countries suffer due to breakdowns in free trading. Least of all do the economic nationalists countenance how bad things can get even when we're merely the victim of what economists call "knock-on effects" — consequences of consequences. But in our globalized world, that's definitely how it works. Witness the chain reaction of plummeting global markets roiled with fear over China's weakening economy. Or how the world trembled over the eurozone crisis. And so on.
In speech after speech, and during the presidential debates, Mr. Trump argues that China and its supposedly brilliant trade negotiators have been "killing" America. The GOP presidential frontrunner claims that Beijing's superiority over Washington is evidenced by the massive trade deficit between the two nations, as well as the flow of U.S. manufacturing jobs to China during the 2000s. And until American workers have an "even playing field," (What exactly does that mean in this context?) President Trump would slap a big tariff on Chinese exports to America. Mr. Trump would, ostensibly and so he claims, bring back manufacturing jobs and investment. Really? That's not what the preponderance of what I've read or studied suggests be the outcome of his proposed policies.
According to Mr. Trump's website:
There's some truth to Mr. Trump's argument about the harm from Chinese trade for some American workers. As China became a global factory floor, Chinese living standards rose sharply. But U.S. labor markets haven't adjusted as quickly as economic models suggested they would. Some regions were hit hard and never recovered. As MIT economist David Autor, et al write in their recent paper, "The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," workers in sectors affected by trade "experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in U.S. industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize."
On the other hand, there have been gains to U.S. welfare — especially to that of lower-income Americans — from cheaper imports. Since poorer families spend a larger share of their income on such goods than wealthier families do, their inflation rate has been lower, and their purchasing power higher. A 2008 study taking this differential into account found it offset the rise in measured income inequality from 1994 through 2005.
But set those potential consumer gains aside for a moment. Even knowing what we now know about the possible impact on U.S. jobs, should Washington have somehow limited trade and overseas investment with China — even at the cost of higher global poverty? Certainly the humanitarian answer is "no." Furthermore, what set of plausible public policies could have significantly offset the one-time economic shock to advanced economies of hundreds of millions of low-wage workers fully entering the global trading system?
There's also a longer-term economic benefit to the U.S. and the rest of the world from poor people getting richer, healthier, more educated, and adding their brainpower to the global intellectual stock for new invention and innovation. Yet while we should take into account the well-being of non-U.S. citizens, American workers can't be left to fend for themselves. Clearly we've long needed a stronger, pro-work safety net that helps the "losers" from trade through a variety of means including effective retraining, wage subsidies, and relocation assistance. While trade isn't the zero-sum game Mr. Trump seemingly imagines, there are trade-offs.
Perhaps this is overthinking Trumpism, something of which Mr. Trump himself certainly cannot be found guilty of doing. During one of the Republican presidential debates, Trump criticized air-conditioner maker Carrier for plans to move a plant and 1,400 jobs to Mexico from Indianapolis. He also didn't like the idea of Chinese investors buying the 134-year-old Chicago Stock Exchange, the first-ever purchase of an American exchange by a Chinese company. So Americans shouldn't invest in other nations, and neither should they invest in us? Taken at face value, what Trump's really arguing for is not "free trade" or "fair trade," but no trade at all.
- "Our country is in serious trouble. When was the last time anybody saw us beating, let's say, China in a trade deal? They kill us."
- "The leaders of Mexico, China, Japan and all the other countries that we do business with are smarter, more cunning and sharper than our leaders."
It's clear that Mr. Trump, the so-called "outsider," has discovered, like insiders before him, how to use the single greatest force fueling discontent within America: economic nationalism. The politics of economic nationalism have long driven insurgent candidacies, from Ross Perot to Pat Buchanan to Newt Gingrich. Mr. Trump now exploits it, promising to get tough on China, build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico, and more generally "make America great again."
Economic nationalists score points, of course, with angry and economically unsavvy populists when they suggest foreign countries are cashing in at America's expense. (Trump: Mexico is "killing us on trade"; NAFTA is a "total disaster.") But rarely, if ever, do they ever attempt to actually present what the whole of the professional economics world understands about free trade.
And just what is the economics community's stance on free trade with China and other low cost producers of intermediate and finished goods? Well, taking just one macroeconomics class in high school would give one the answer. Free trade increases prosperity for Americans -- and the citizens of all participating nations -- by allowing consumers to buy more, better-quality products at lower costs. It drives economic growth, enhanced efficiency, increased innovation, and the greater fairness that accompanies a rules-based system. These benefits increase as overall trade -- exports and imports -- increases.
- Free trade increases access to higher-quality, lower-priced goods. Cheaper imports, particularly from countries such as China and Mexico, have eased inflationary pressure in the United States. Prices are held down by more than 2 percent for every 1 percent share in the market by imports from low-income countries like China.
Moreover, poorer Americans suffer more from tariffs than higher-income people. Not only do they spend more of their income on consumption goods, many of the goods they consume are subject to higher tariffs than more expensive goods of the same type. For example, imported cheap sneakers can face a tariff as high as 60%, while men’s leather dress shoes are subject to an 8.5% tariff. Similarly, plain drinking glasses face a tariff of nearly 30%, while expensive crystal glasses are taxed at 3%. (Edward Gresser, Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy Soft Skull Press. Brooklyn, NY. 2007. p 167.)
- Free trade means more growth. At least half of US imports are not consumer goods; they are inputs for US-based producers, according to economists from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Freeing trade reduces imported-input costs, thus reducing businesses’ production costs and promoting economic growth.
- Free trade improves efficiency and innovation. Over time, free trade works with other market processes to shift workers and resources to more productive uses, allowing more efficient industries to thrive. The result is higher wages, investment in such things as infrastructure, and a more dynamic economy that continues to create new jobs and opportunities. (Bordeaux, Donald J. Globalization. Greenwood Press; 1st edition. Westport, CT. December 2007. pp 55-67.)
- Much of the change in the labor force is not the result of free trade but of innovation. New technology, such as apps on mobile devices, has displaced a staggering array of industrially manufactured products. Look at what smartphone apps have replaced for many people: radios, cameras, alarm clocks, calculators, compact discs, DVDs, carpenters’ levels, tape measures, tape recorders, blood-pressure monitors, cardiographs, flashlights, and file cabinets.
- The beneficiaries of trade restrictions are the inefficient firms and special interests that secure these protections against competition. The United States’ recent imposition of tariffs on Chinese-made solar panels resulted in China imposing tariffs on American polysilicon, raising the cost of solar equipment and reducing employment opportunities in both nations.
But that's just the obvious effects of free trade. Rarely, if ever, do they stop to concede how truly vulnerable the U.S. has become to what happens when foreign countries suffer due to breakdowns in free trading. Least of all do the economic nationalists countenance how bad things can get even when we're merely the victim of what economists call "knock-on effects" — consequences of consequences. But in our globalized world, that's definitely how it works. Witness the chain reaction of plummeting global markets roiled with fear over China's weakening economy. Or how the world trembled over the eurozone crisis. And so on.
In speech after speech, and during the presidential debates, Mr. Trump argues that China and its supposedly brilliant trade negotiators have been "killing" America. The GOP presidential frontrunner claims that Beijing's superiority over Washington is evidenced by the massive trade deficit between the two nations, as well as the flow of U.S. manufacturing jobs to China during the 2000s. And until American workers have an "even playing field," (What exactly does that mean in this context?) President Trump would slap a big tariff on Chinese exports to America. Mr. Trump would, ostensibly and so he claims, bring back manufacturing jobs and investment. Really? That's not what the preponderance of what I've read or studied suggests be the outcome of his proposed policies.
According to Mr. Trump's website:
There's some truth to Mr. Trump's argument about the harm from Chinese trade for some American workers. As China became a global factory floor, Chinese living standards rose sharply. But U.S. labor markets haven't adjusted as quickly as economic models suggested they would. Some regions were hit hard and never recovered. As MIT economist David Autor, et al write in their recent paper, "The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," workers in sectors affected by trade "experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in U.S. industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize."
On the other hand, there have been gains to U.S. welfare — especially to that of lower-income Americans — from cheaper imports. Since poorer families spend a larger share of their income on such goods than wealthier families do, their inflation rate has been lower, and their purchasing power higher. A 2008 study taking this differential into account found it offset the rise in measured income inequality from 1994 through 2005.
But set those potential consumer gains aside for a moment. Even knowing what we now know about the possible impact on U.S. jobs, should Washington have somehow limited trade and overseas investment with China — even at the cost of higher global poverty? Certainly the humanitarian answer is "no." Furthermore, what set of plausible public policies could have significantly offset the one-time economic shock to advanced economies of hundreds of millions of low-wage workers fully entering the global trading system?
There's also a longer-term economic benefit to the U.S. and the rest of the world from poor people getting richer, healthier, more educated, and adding their brainpower to the global intellectual stock for new invention and innovation. Yet while we should take into account the well-being of non-U.S. citizens, American workers can't be left to fend for themselves. Clearly we've long needed a stronger, pro-work safety net that helps the "losers" from trade through a variety of means including effective retraining, wage subsidies, and relocation assistance. While trade isn't the zero-sum game Mr. Trump seemingly imagines, there are trade-offs.
Perhaps this is overthinking Trumpism, something of which Mr. Trump himself certainly cannot be found guilty of doing. During one of the Republican presidential debates, Trump criticized air-conditioner maker Carrier for plans to move a plant and 1,400 jobs to Mexico from Indianapolis. He also didn't like the idea of Chinese investors buying the 134-year-old Chicago Stock Exchange, the first-ever purchase of an American exchange by a Chinese company. So Americans shouldn't invest in other nations, and neither should they invest in us? Taken at face value, what Trump's really arguing for is not "free trade" or "fair trade," but no trade at all.