For Trump to Win, the Polling Error Would Need to Be Bigger than 2016

[Toro]

First, take the 10 swing states. They are

AZ FL GA IA MI NV NC OH PA TX WI

These 10 states account for 185 electoral college votes.

Trump won all except NV, or 179 EC votes.

Trump won 306 EC votes, Hillary won 232.

Assuming all the non-swing state votes do not flip, Trump starts with 127 (306-179=127) EC votes and Biden starts with 226.

Using the final polling numbers from 538.com, we can see Clinton's final polling numbers and compare it to her actual vote. The yellow column is the difference.

You can see that in most states, Clinton underperformed her polls by 1.2% on average. (You can do the math.)

Remember that "Difference" yellow column.

Doing the same thing for Trump, we can see that he outperformed his polls in almost all states, and on average by 2.0%.

Again, remember that yellow column.

Let's look at the polls for Biden and Trump now.

Now let's apply the difference between the polls and the actual vote from 2016, i.e. the yellow column, and apply that to the current polls for each candidate.

Biden

Trump

Now let's compare Biden and Trump adjusted for the 2016 polling error

Biden would thus win 334 EC votes compared to Trump winning 204.

This means that for Trump to win, the polling error would need to be bigger than 2016.

Let's say you adjust Trump's vote up 1%

It would be a tie. Biden would have 269 (226+43) and so would Trump (127+142).

This is where Trump totally blowing it in the suburbs would cost him.

Our model assumes everything else stays the same. But in NE-02, which is essentially Omaha, Trump is getting trounced.

The Republicans won that by 9.4% in 2016, but are trailing by 4.5% today, or a 13.9% swing. That's high but not uncommon in the suburbs.

If that one EC vote were to swing to Biden, then he'd win the election.

 

[Blackrook]

I think polls are lies. I've noticed how wrong they are in so many elections.

 

[Indeependent]

Because

First, take the 10 swing states. They are

AZ FL GA IA MI NV NC OH PA TX WI

These 10 states account for 185 electoral college votes.

Trump won all except NV, or 179 EC votes.

Trump won 306 EC votes, Hillary won 232.

Assuming all the non-swing state votes do not flip, Trump starts with 127 (306-179=127) EC votes and Biden starts with 226.

Using the final polling numbers from 538.com, we can see Clinton's final polling numbers and compare it to her actual vote. The yellow column is the difference.

View attachment 410374

You can see that in most states, Clinton underperformed her polls by 1.2% on average. (You can do the math.)

Remember that "Difference" yellow column.

Doing the same thing for Trump, we can see that he outperformed his polls in almost all states, and on average by 2.0%.

View attachment 410376

Again, remember that yellow column.

Let's look at the polls for Biden and Trump now.

View attachment 410378

Now let's apply the difference between the polls and the actual vote from 2016, i.e. the yellow column, and apply that to the current polls for each candidate.

Biden

View attachment 410380

Trump

View attachment 410382

Now let's compare Biden and Trump adjusted for the 2016 polling error
View attachment 410389

Biden would thus win 334 EC votes compared to Trump winning 204.

This means that for Trump to win, the polling error would need to be bigger than 2016.

Let's say you adjust Trump's vote up 1%

View attachment 410394

It would be a tie. Biden would have 269 (226+43) and so would Trump (127+142).

This is where Trump totally blowing it in the suburbs would cost him.

Our model assumes everything else stays the same. But in NE-02, which is essentially Omaha, Trump is getting trounced.

View attachment 410396

The Republicans won that by 9.4% in 2016, but are trailing by 4.5% today, or a 13.9% swing. That's high but not uncommon in the suburbs.

If that one EC vote were to swing to Biden, then he'd win the election.

The pollsters are calling losers with land lines who are so desperate for company that they will answer a call that their phone says is from an unknown number?

 

[Indeependent]

First, take the 10 swing states. They are

AZ FL GA IA MI NV NC OH PA TX WI

These 10 states account for 185 electoral college votes.

Trump won all except NV, or 179 EC votes.

Trump won 306 EC votes, Hillary won 232.

Assuming all the non-swing state votes do not flip, Trump starts with 127 (306-179=127) EC votes and Biden starts with 226.

Using the final polling numbers from 538.com, we can see Clinton's final polling numbers and compare it to her actual vote. The yellow column is the difference.

View attachment 410374

You can see that in most states, Clinton underperformed her polls by 1.2% on average. (You can do the math.)

Remember that "Difference" yellow column.

Doing the same thing for Trump, we can see that he outperformed his polls in almost all states, and on average by 2.0%.

View attachment 410376

Again, remember that yellow column.

Let's look at the polls for Biden and Trump now.

View attachment 410378

Now let's apply the difference between the polls and the actual vote from 2016, i.e. the yellow column, and apply that to the current polls for each candidate.

Biden

View attachment 410380

Trump

View attachment 410382

Now let's compare Biden and Trump adjusted for the 2016 polling error
View attachment 410389

Biden would thus win 334 EC votes compared to Trump winning 204.

This means that for Trump to win, the polling error would need to be bigger than 2016.

Let's say you adjust Trump's vote up 1%

View attachment 410394

It would be a tie. Biden would have 269 (226+43) and so would Trump (127+142).

This is where Trump totally blowing it in the suburbs would cost him.

Our model assumes everything else stays the same. But in NE-02, which is essentially Omaha, Trump is getting trounced.

View attachment 410396

The Republicans won that by 9.4% in 2016, but are trailing by 4.5% today, or a 13.9% swing. That's high but not uncommon in the suburbs.

If that one EC vote were to swing to Biden, then he'd win the election.

If you are so confident, why are you posting all day?

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

First, take the 10 swing states. They are

AZ FL GA IA MI NV NC OH PA TX WI

These 10 states account for 185 electoral college votes.

Trump won all except NV, or 179 EC votes.

Trump won 306 EC votes, Hillary won 232.

Assuming all the non-swing state votes do not flip, Trump starts with 127 (306-179=127) EC votes and Biden starts with 226.

Using the final polling numbers from 538.com, we can see Clinton's final polling numbers and compare it to her actual vote. The yellow column is the difference.

View attachment 410374

You can see that in most states, Clinton underperformed her polls by 1.2% on average. (You can do the math.)

Remember that "Difference" yellow column.

Doing the same thing for Trump, we can see that he outperformed his polls in almost all states, and on average by 2.0%.

View attachment 410376

Again, remember that yellow column.

Let's look at the polls for Biden and Trump now.

View attachment 410378

Now let's apply the difference between the polls and the actual vote from 2016, i.e. the yellow column, and apply that to the current polls for each candidate.

Biden

View attachment 410380

Trump

View attachment 410382

Now let's compare Biden and Trump adjusted for the 2016 polling error
View attachment 410389

Biden would thus win 334 EC votes compared to Trump winning 204.

This means that for Trump to win, the polling error would need to be bigger than 2016.

Let's say you adjust Trump's vote up 1%

View attachment 410394

It would be a tie. Biden would have 269 (226+43) and so would Trump (127+142).

This is where Trump totally blowing it in the suburbs would cost him.

Our model assumes everything else stays the same. But in NE-02, which is essentially Omaha, Trump is getting trounced.

View attachment 410396

The Republicans won that by 9.4% in 2016, but are trailing by 4.5% today, or a 13.9% swing. That's high but not uncommon in the suburbs.

If that one EC vote were to swing to Biden, then he'd win the election.

She thought you d be bigger...

 

[Zander]

Toro is not nervous. Not a bit. Nope!! He's super duper confident!!

 

[Toro]

I think polls are lies. I've noticed how wrong they are in so many elections.

They are right in most elections.

You are selectively remembering what you want to remember.

 

[Toro]

If you are so confident, why are you posting all day?

Because I took the day off and am wired to this stuff.

 

[Toro]

The pollsters are calling losers with land lines who are so desperate for company that they will answer a call that their phone says is from an unknown number?

So how's that different from 2018 when the polls predicted the Republican Trump Party would get crushed in the House and they were exactly correct?

You guys were saying the exact same thing two years ago before you walked into disaster.

 

[Indeependent]

The pollsters are calling losers with land lines who are so desperate for company that they will answer a call that their phone says is from an unknown number?

So how's that different from 2018 when the polls predicted the Republican Trump Party would get crushed in the House and they were exactly correct?

You guys were saying the exact same thing two years ago before you walked into disaster.

I wouldn't vote for any R or D after GW's crash.
Trump is an American, not an R.

But you're not sharp enough to pick up on that.

 

[Toro]

Trump is an American, not an R.

But you're not sharp enough to pick up on that.

Orange Jesus isn't an R.

Orange Jesus is a Trump. It's all about Trump, and always has been.

Quit drinking the Kool-Aid.

 

[Orangecat]

First, take the 10 swing states. They are

AZ FL GA IA MI NV NC OH PA TX WI

These 10 states account for 185 electoral college votes.

Trump won all except NV, or 179 EC votes.

Trump won 306 EC votes, Hillary won 232.

Assuming all the non-swing state votes do not flip, Trump starts with 127 (306-179=127) EC votes and Biden starts with 226.

Using the final polling numbers from 538.com, we can see Clinton's final polling numbers and compare it to her actual vote. The yellow column is the difference.

View attachment 410374

You can see that in most states, Clinton underperformed her polls by 1.2% on average. (You can do the math.)

Remember that "Difference" yellow column.

Doing the same thing for Trump, we can see that he outperformed his polls in almost all states, and on average by 2.0%.

View attachment 410376

Again, remember that yellow column.

Let's look at the polls for Biden and Trump now.

View attachment 410378

Now let's apply the difference between the polls and the actual vote from 2016, i.e. the yellow column, and apply that to the current polls for each candidate.

Biden

View attachment 410380

Trump

View attachment 410382

Now let's compare Biden and Trump adjusted for the 2016 polling error
View attachment 410389

Biden would thus win 334 EC votes compared to Trump winning 204.

This means that for Trump to win, the polling error would need to be bigger than 2016.

Let's say you adjust Trump's vote up 1%

View attachment 410394

It would be a tie. Biden would have 269 (226+43) and so would Trump (127+142).

This is where Trump totally blowing it in the suburbs would cost him.

Our model assumes everything else stays the same. But in NE-02, which is essentially Omaha, Trump is getting trounced.

View attachment 410396

The Republicans won that by 9.4% in 2016, but are trailing by 4.5% today, or a 13.9% swing. That's high but not uncommon in the suburbs.

If that one EC vote were to swing to Biden, then he'd win the election.

Wall of text = not confident.

 

[Indeependent]

Trump is an American, not an R.

But you're not sharp enough to pick up on that.

Orange Jesus isn't an R.

Orange Jesus is a Trump. It's all about Trump, and always has been.

Quit drinking the Kool-Aid.

Nope...
Even with COVOD, cities all across the US are booming and you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[Toro]

Nope...
Even with COVOD, cities all across the US are booming and you have no idea what you're talking about.

Oh, I see what you did there.

When you made a claim about how polls where BS, and I asked you why, if were they BS, they correctly called the election 2 years ago, you made some adoring claim about Orange Jesus rather than answer the question.

So do you want to try it this time? In 2018, the polls were predicting that the Republican Trump Party would get hammered in the House. And they did.

You want to answer the question? Or would you rather post some cultist diversion?

 

[Indeependent]

Nope...
Even with COVOD, cities all across the US are booming and you have no idea what you're talking about.

Oh, I see what you did there.

When you made a claim about how polls where BS, and I asked you why if were they BS if they correctly called the election 2 years ago, you made some adoring claim about Orange Jesus rather than answer the question.

So do you want to try it this time? In 2018, the polls were predicting that the Republican Trump Party would get hammered in the House. And they did.

You care to want to answer the question? Or would you rather post some cultist diversion?

Why are you projecting?
The US economy is booming and people want booming.
Even the slums in Nassau County are voting for Trump...they like money too.

 

[MisterBeale]

Toro, let's say all these stats ARE correct.

. . . and, let's say Biden does win, by exactly these margins.

I still see a problem that worries me, greatly. And that is Trump's personality, and that of his followers. Along with the fact that the election IS so close.

See, the thing is, the election, does seem to be razor thin, and it comes down to the nature of the respective support of both candidates.

The support that Trump has, and the relationship that he shares with his base, is something that is beyond Biden.

Do you remember the Euromaidan, the far right, populist revolution in Ukrain? The people powered protest against corruption? That is what is potentally in the wings if the MSM and the establishment attempt to go forward with this, and Trump, just decides. . nope, he doesn't want to step down after all the bullshit the Deep State and their establihsment propaganda has leveled against him. It isn't like he didn't try to play nice and work with them for four years.

You are aware, both sides have already lawyer-ed up, right?

. . . and this source you used? 538? This source is firmly part of the CFR establishment. They have an agenda, you know it, I know it.

Trump, Biden Lawyer Up, Brace For White House Legal Battle

Trump, Biden Lawyer Up, Brace For White House Legal Battle - VINnews

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s and Democratic rival Joe Biden’s campaigns are assembling armies of powerful lawyers for the possibility that the race for the White House is decided not at the ballot box but in court. Join our WhatsApp group Subscribe to our Daily Roundup Email They...

vosizneias.com

On Course for a Coup Coronavirus hysteria and the U.S. elections

On Course for a Coup

Michael Lesher Even the pundit class admits that the coming presidential election in the United States is shaping up to be an event like no other. “We’re in such a unique time that you don’t know w…

off-guardian.org

". . . After all the clearly unconstitutional mandates that have been foisted off on folks. . . I am prepared to witness all manner of crazyness as the elites decide to trash the norms of our Republic. . . on both sides.

I hope my fears about the jettisoning of the electoral process prove to be premature. But the American public has never had a more tenuous grasp on the traditional institutions of democracy than it does now. With four-fifths of our governors already acting like dictators, with both major parties working hand in hand to delegitimize the election of a president, and with a mass media that stubbornly refuses to report these facts, we won’t preserve democracy by doing nothing.

The constitutional system may not collapse in a week’s time. But if we don’t want to see it collapse sooner or later – and probably sooner – we had better start taking politics into our own hands.

Bleak as our prospects may seem now, the alternatives are bound to be worse."

 

[Toro]

Why are you projecting?
The US economy is booming and people want booming.
Even the slums in Nassau County are voting for Trump...they like money too.

You refuse to answer my question to back up your claims.

i.e. You are all about the "feels."

Got it.

 

[Toro]

Toro, let's say all these stats ARE correct.

. . . and, let's say Biden does win, by exactly these margins.

I still see a problem that worries me, greatly. And that is Trump's personality, and that of his followers. Along with the fact that the election IS so close.

See, the thing is, the election, does seem to be razor thin, and it comes down to the nature of the respective support of both candidates.

The support that Trump has, and the relationship that he shares with his base, is something that is beyond Biden.

Do you remember the Euromaidan, the far right, populist revolution in Ukrain? The people powered protest against corruption? That is what is potentally in the wings if the MSM and the establishment attempt to go forward with this, and Trump, just decides. . nope, he doesn't want to step down after all the bullshit the Deep State and their establihsment propaganda has leveled against him. It isn't like he didn't try to play nice and work with them for four years.

You are aware, both sides have already lawyer-ed up, right?

. . . and this source you used? 538? This source is firmly part of the CFR establishment. They have an agenda, you know it, I know it.

Trump, Biden Lawyer Up, Brace For White House Legal Battle

Trump, Biden Lawyer Up, Brace For White House Legal Battle - VINnews

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s and Democratic rival Joe Biden’s campaigns are assembling armies of powerful lawyers for the possibility that the race for the White House is decided not at the ballot box but in court. Join our WhatsApp group Subscribe to our Daily Roundup Email They...

vosizneias.com

On Course for a Coup Coronavirus hysteria and the U.S. elections

On Course for a Coup

Michael Lesher Even the pundit class admits that the coming presidential election in the United States is shaping up to be an event like no other. “We’re in such a unique time that you don’t know w…

off-guardian.org

". . . After all the clearly unconstitutional mandates that have been foisted off on folks. . . I am prepared to witness all manner of crazyness as the elites decide to trash the norms of our Republic. . . on both sides.

I hope my fears about the jettisoning of the electoral process prove to be premature. But the American public has never had a more tenuous grasp on the traditional institutions of democracy than it does now. With four-fifths of our governors already acting like dictators, with both major parties working hand in hand to delegitimize the election of a president, and with a mass media that stubbornly refuses to report these facts, we won’t preserve democracy by doing nothing.

The constitutional system may not collapse in a week’s time. But if we don’t want to see it collapse sooner or later – and probably sooner – we had better start taking politics into our own hands.

Bleak as our prospects may seem now, the alternatives are bound to be worse."

I honestly have no idea.

 

[MisterBeale]

Toro, let's say all these stats ARE correct.

. . . and, let's say Biden does win, by exactly these margins.

I still see a problem that worries me, greatly. And that is Trump's personality, and that of his followers. Along with the fact that the election IS so close.

See, the thing is, the election, does seem to be razor thin, and it comes down to the nature of the respective support of both candidates.

The support that Trump has, and the relationship that he shares with his base, is something that is beyond Biden.

Do you remember the Euromaidan, the far right, populist revolution in Ukrain? The people powered protest against corruption? That is what is potentally in the wings if the MSM and the establishment attempt to go forward with this, and Trump, just decides. . nope, he doesn't want to step down after all the bullshit the Deep State and their establihsment propaganda has leveled against him. It isn't like he didn't try to play nice and work with them for four years.

You are aware, both sides have already lawyer-ed up, right?

. . . and this source you used? 538? This source is firmly part of the CFR establishment. They have an agenda, you know it, I know it.

Trump, Biden Lawyer Up, Brace For White House Legal Battle

Trump, Biden Lawyer Up, Brace For White House Legal Battle - VINnews

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s and Democratic rival Joe Biden’s campaigns are assembling armies of powerful lawyers for the possibility that the race for the White House is decided not at the ballot box but in court. Join our WhatsApp group Subscribe to our Daily Roundup Email They...

vosizneias.com

On Course for a Coup Coronavirus hysteria and the U.S. elections

On Course for a Coup

Michael Lesher Even the pundit class admits that the coming presidential election in the United States is shaping up to be an event like no other. “We’re in such a unique time that you don’t know w…

off-guardian.org

". . . After all the clearly unconstitutional mandates that have been foisted off on folks. . . I am prepared to witness all manner of crazyness as the elites decide to trash the norms of our Republic. . . on both sides.

I hope my fears about the jettisoning of the electoral process prove to be premature. But the American public has never had a more tenuous grasp on the traditional institutions of democracy than it does now. With four-fifths of our governors already acting like dictators, with both major parties working hand in hand to delegitimize the election of a president, and with a mass media that stubbornly refuses to report these facts, we won’t preserve democracy by doing nothing.

The constitutional system may not collapse in a week’s time. But if we don’t want to see it collapse sooner or later – and probably sooner – we had better start taking politics into our own hands.

Bleak as our prospects may seem now, the alternatives are bound to be worse."

I honestly have no idea.

Nor do I

Oddball summed it up best.

Use the OFFICIAL 2020 November Election Thread.

Thread link is -- Official 2020 November Election Thread. It will open tonight at 11PM Eastern. Use it as we have before for ALL comments, analysis, news items and EVERYTHING election until 11PM Eastern Wednesday night.. We're extending the time limit because there WILL BE NO ELECTION...

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[Indeependent]

Why are you projecting?
The US economy is booming and people want booming.
Even the slums in Nassau County are voting for Trump...they like money too.

You refuse to answer my question to back up your claims.

i.e. You are all about the "feels."

Got it.

Ever hear of Reuters or AP?
Are you faking being ignorant?