For Trump to Win, the Polling Error Would Need to Be Bigger than 2016

[John T. Ford]

Toro is not nervous. Not a bit. Nope!! He's super duper confident!!

LMAO ...

That member has been posting desperate thread after desperate thread for weeks now.

 

[Toro]

Toro is not nervous. Not a bit. Nope!! He's super duper confident!!

LMAO ...

That member has been posting desperate thread after desperate thread for weeks now.

No, I'm just reinforcing data that you cultists refuse to believe because Orange Jesus.

 

[John T. Ford]

No, I'm just reinforcing data that you cultists refuse to believe because Orange Jesus.

That's not data.

It's propaganda.

And, this is just another of dozens of desperate threads you have been posting daily for over a week now.

Tomorrow your fears will be realized.

Don't worry .... we will all be right here with you when that happens.

 

[MisterBeale]

No, I'm just reinforcing data that you cultists refuse to believe because Orange Jesus.

That's not data.

It's propaganda.

And, this is just another of dozens of desperate threads you have been posting daily for over a week now.

Tomorrow your fears will be realized.

Don't worry .... we will all be right here with you when that happens.

 

[Zander]

Toro is not nervous. Not a bit. Nope!! He's super duper confident!!

LMAO ...

That member has been posting desperate thread after desperate thread for weeks now.

No, I'm just reinforcing data that you cultists refuse to believe because Orange Jesus.

Toro, your phony "but I am a Republican" schtick is desperate, old, and boring.

All you have is anger , hatred, and insults.

 

[John T. Ford]

Toro, your phony "but I am a Republican" schtick is desperate, old, and boring.

All you have is anger , hatred, and insults.

Hatred and Intolerance are Hallmarks of Leftism.

 

[Yarddog]

Trump is an American, not an R.

But you're not sharp enough to pick up on that.

Orange Jesus isn't an R.

Orange Jesus is a Trump. It's all about Trump, and always has been.

Quit drinking the Kool-Aid.

Trump didnt need to run for president, to put up with the personal attacks on a daily basis when he could simply have lived his wealthy life somewhere. He did it to help the country.
Biden on the other hand is just a B. its you who have drunken the Cool aid. Biden lied when he said he knows nothing of his son's business..... that is impossible. At the very least Hunter would have talked to his dad..... but Biden is better off telling a bald faced lie like that, because the can of worms that would be opened up should he admit to knowing anything runs so deep.... Biden's only defense would be senility.
I dont want a president who sells his influence to Communist Chinese and gives them our technology (had enough of that with Bill), or would cripple our energy industry and make us a slave again to the Saudis. Biden lines his pockets as a politician because he cant make it in the hotel industry.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

There is no polling error. Democrats have been lying all along.

 

[Viktor]

First, take the 10 swing states. They are

AZ FL GA IA MI NV NC OH PA TX WI

These 10 states account for 185 electoral college votes.

Trump won all except NV, or 179 EC votes.

Trump won 306 EC votes, Hillary won 232.

Assuming all the non-swing state votes do not flip, Trump starts with 127 (306-179=127) EC votes and Biden starts with 226.

Using the final polling numbers from 538.com, we can see Clinton's final polling numbers and compare it to her actual vote. The yellow column is the difference.

View attachment 410374

You can see that in most states, Clinton underperformed her polls by 1.2% on average. (You can do the math.)

Remember that "Difference" yellow column.

Doing the same thing for Trump, we can see that he outperformed his polls in almost all states, and on average by 2.0%.

View attachment 410376

Again, remember that yellow column.

Let's look at the polls for Biden and Trump now.

View attachment 410378

Now let's apply the difference between the polls and the actual vote from 2016, i.e. the yellow column, and apply that to the current polls for each candidate.

Biden

View attachment 410380

Trump

View attachment 410382

Now let's compare Biden and Trump adjusted for the 2016 polling error
View attachment 410389

Biden would thus win 334 EC votes compared to Trump winning 204.

This means that for Trump to win, the polling error would need to be bigger than 2016.

Let's say you adjust Trump's vote up 1%

View attachment 410394

It would be a tie. Biden would have 269 (226+43) and so would Trump (127+142).

This is where Trump totally blowing it in the suburbs would cost him.

Our model assumes everything else stays the same. But in NE-02, which is essentially Omaha, Trump is getting trounced.

View attachment 410396

The Republicans won that by 9.4% in 2016, but are trailing by 4.5% today, or a 13.9% swing. That's high but not uncommon in the suburbs.

If that one EC vote were to swing to Biden, then he'd win the election.

Your big mistake is accepting the vote counts the media gives you. They are biased liars.

 

[KissMy]

Once Biden makes Puerto Rico a state, it will be all over for Republicans

 

[BWK]

First, take the 10 swing states. They are

AZ FL GA IA MI NV NC OH PA TX WI

These 10 states account for 185 electoral college votes.

Trump won all except NV, or 179 EC votes.

Trump won 306 EC votes, Hillary won 232.

Assuming all the non-swing state votes do not flip, Trump starts with 127 (306-179=127) EC votes and Biden starts with 226.

Using the final polling numbers from 538.com, we can see Clinton's final polling numbers and compare it to her actual vote. The yellow column is the difference.

View attachment 410374

You can see that in most states, Clinton underperformed her polls by 1.2% on average. (You can do the math.)

Remember that "Difference" yellow column.

Doing the same thing for Trump, we can see that he outperformed his polls in almost all states, and on average by 2.0%.

View attachment 410376

Again, remember that yellow column.

Let's look at the polls for Biden and Trump now.

View attachment 410378

Now let's apply the difference between the polls and the actual vote from 2016, i.e. the yellow column, and apply that to the current polls for each candidate.

Biden

View attachment 410380

Trump

View attachment 410382

Now let's compare Biden and Trump adjusted for the 2016 polling error
View attachment 410389

Biden would thus win 334 EC votes compared to Trump winning 204.

This means that for Trump to win, the polling error would need to be bigger than 2016.

Let's say you adjust Trump's vote up 1%

View attachment 410394

It would be a tie. Biden would have 269 (226+43) and so would Trump (127+142).

This is where Trump totally blowing it in the suburbs would cost him.

Our model assumes everything else stays the same. But in NE-02, which is essentially Omaha, Trump is getting trounced.

View attachment 410396

The Republicans won that by 9.4% in 2016, but are trailing by 4.5% today, or a 13.9% swing. That's high but not uncommon in the suburbs.

If that one EC vote were to swing to Biden, then he'd win the election.

Trump will be barred from running for office.

 

[schmidlap]

I think polls are lies.

Of course, they have proved sufficiently accurate that virtually every campaign professional employs pollsters and constantly consults their findings.

One might suspect they have a clue.