Flling apart Europe is a lot safer than Canada

[Toro]

Stats, shmats. The only way to prove gun ownership doesn't discourage crime is to outlaw them and see what happens. I think one side effect is that home invasions would skyrocket. People will end up being murdered, raped and kidnapped right in their own homes.

If stats didn't mean anything, why did you refer to statistics to support your view when you noted the white homicide rate?

You can't use them to try to prove your argument then dismiss them when they contradict your argument.

 

[Toro]

Please provide a link for that claim.

I've provided links and math in several posts in this thread.

You've made several assertions in this thread. Can you provide links and math to support yours?

 

[SobieskiSavedEurope]

So, you're basically admitting there's more factors than just guns?

Of course. I haven't argued otherwise.

But you are cherry-picking your examples and offering nothing empirically to support your view.

Feel free to post supporting statistics.

Why do you just focus on the U.S vs Europe?

That's not the entire World.

You're Polish, right? Do you compare the Polish national football team to how Surinam does at soccer? When Poland gets beat, do you say "Well, we should compare ourselves to Fiji." Of course not. You compare yourself to other similar countries.

I think Poland's gun control is insulting to Polish people, considering many of them were disarmed victims of Nazis, and Soviets.

 

[impuretrash]

Stats, shmats. The only way to prove gun ownership doesn't discourage crime is to outlaw them and see what happens. I think one side effect is that home invasions would skyrocket. People will end up being murdered, raped and kidnapped right in their own homes.

If stats didn't mean anything, why did you refer to statistics to support your view when you noted the white homicide rate?

You can't use them to try to prove your argument then dismiss them when they contradict your argument.

How do you quantify "safety" into a statistic? How do you count how many criminal acts were discouraged from happening due to fear of being shot? Homicide rates are something altogether different.

 

[Toro]

I think Poland's gun control is insulting to Polish people, considering many of them were disarmed victims of Nazis, and Soviets.

That's another issue, and I'm not arguing against it.

I'd have no argument if someone said "Yes, I think guns cause more deaths, but I want them to protect my family and it's a constitutional right."

The proponents argue that the gun ownership makes the country safer. That appears to be wrong. Or at least they don't offer empirical evidence to support it that I've seen.

But it may make individuals safer.

Which is a different argument.

 

[Toro]

How do you quantify "safety" into a statistic? How do you count how many criminal acts were discouraged from happening due to fear of being shot? Homicide rates are something altogether different.

I don't know. Maybe it does.

Do you have anything to back it up?

 

[impuretrash]

How do you quantify "safety" into a statistic? How do you count how many criminal acts were discouraged from happening due to fear of being shot? Homicide rates are something altogether different.

I don't know. Maybe it does.

Do you have anything to back it up?

Only if there was a country that had a similar crime rate to the US where guns were formerly legal but were completely banned.

 

[Toro]

How do you quantify "safety" into a statistic? How do you count how many criminal acts were discouraged from happening due to fear of being shot? Homicide rates are something altogether different.

I don't know. Maybe it does.

Do you have anything to back it up?

Only if there was a country that had a similar crime rate to the US where guns were formerly legal but were completely banned.

So maybe gun ownership causes more criminal acts because people feel emboldened when possessing a gun.

 

[impuretrash]

How do you quantify "safety" into a statistic? How do you count how many criminal acts were discouraged from happening due to fear of being shot? Homicide rates are something altogether different.

I don't know. Maybe it does.

Do you have anything to back it up?

Only if there was a country that had a similar crime rate to the US where guns were formerly legal but were completely banned.

So maybe gun ownership causes more criminal acts because people feel emboldened when possessing a gun.

The vast majority of legal gun owners don't use them to rob stores or murder people. If even half of them did, the population would be decimated in a matter of days. I've lived in the city long enough to know there's a lot of nihilistic individuals out there who have absolutely zero respect for anyone not willing to "throw down" at a moment's notice. That's a moral failing in our society and something the left doesn't want to address. The socially degenerate popular culture that fosters this mindset is not controlled by the right.

 

[westwall]

Please provide a link for that claim.

I've provided links and math in several posts in this thread.

You've made several assertions in this thread. Can you provide links and math to support yours?

As have I . However the claim that you made is not supported by any factual data I have ever seen. In fact the data that is published by the US DOJ is the exact opposite.


http://www.gao.gov/assets/100/93090.pdf

http://www.gao.gov/assets/100/93090.pdf

http://www.gao.gov/assets/320/316959.pdf

 

[westwall]

How do you quantify "safety" into a statistic? How do you count how many criminal acts were discouraged from happening due to fear of being shot? Homicide rates are something altogether different.

I don't know. Maybe it does.

Do you have anything to back it up?

Only if there was a country that had a similar crime rate to the US where guns were formerly legal but were completely banned.

So maybe gun ownership causes more criminal acts because people feel emboldened when possessing a gun.

States that have high rates of gun ownership have correspondingly lower rates of crime.

Wyoming has 60% of the population owning guns and yet their rate of crime is among the lowest in the country.

Wyoming Crime Rates 1960 - 2016

 

[Correll]

IF you had numbers that subtracted out the minority/immigrant populations on both sides, then you would have a clearer picture of if GUNS are the problem.


I have never seen such numbers. I've seen American numbers with minorities subtracted out, and that puts US very close to EU averages.


But I have not seen it with immigrant populations subtracted out of European numbers.

Somewhere I had read that the murder rate by whites in the US is 2.2, but I couldn't find it. So I tried to reconstruct it.

The FBI collects homicide date. The last data was from 2015.

Expanded Homicide Data Table 6

If you add up that first column on the left in the first table, the total number of murders committed by whites was 2,897. The third column from the right are the murders committed by Hispanics. Let's assume that every single Hispanic is white. (They aren't, but we'll assume it.) There were 751 murders by Hispanics. Subtract that from the total white number and you get 2,146 murders by non-Hispanic whites in 2015.

However, the data collected by the FBI is incomplete. In fact, there were 15,696 murders in the US whereas the FBI data accounts for only 6,025 murders, or 38.4% of the total. That means 9,671 murders were unaccounted for.

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/race-and-homicide-in-america-by-the-numbers

Since 61.6% of the data is missing, or 9,671 murders, we have to make an estimate of the rate of white homicide for the rest of the population. Therefore, of the 9,671 unaccounted murders, whites committed somewhere between 0 and 9,671 of those murders.

The odds that whites committed either all or none of those unaccounted murders are statistically zero. But let's pretend that it is zero.

The population of non-Hispanic whites on July 1, 2016 was 197,969,608.

American FactFinder - Results

Assuming that the number of murders committed by whites was 2,146, that means the murder rate by whites would be 1.09.

2,146 / 197,969,608 X 100,000 = 1.09

That is still higher than the 0.99 homicide rate in Europe I posted earlier.

But since the probability of whites committing 0 of the 9,671 unaccounted murders is statistically 0%, we know that the rate is higher. But how much higher?

A reasonable starting point is "normalizing" the rate of murders by whites for the unaccounted population. IOW, if non-Hispanic whites accounted for 35.6% of the accounted murders

2,146 / 6,025 = 35.6%

It is a reasonable starting point to assume that non-Hispanic whites accounted for 35.6% of the 9,671 unaccounted murders, or 3,445.

9,671 X 35.6% = 3,445

So the total number of murders committed by non-Hispanic whites is estimated to be 5,991.

2,146 + 3,445 = 5,591

Using this estimate, then the rate of murders by non-Hispanic whites would be

5,591 / 197,969,608 X 100,000 = 2.83.

It is reasonable to assume that the rate of murder committed by non-white Hispanics is somewhere between 1.09 and 2.83, which is consistent with the 2.2 I recall seeing some time ago. It is also well above the 0.99 rate in Europe.

So it is safe to assume that the rate of murder by the non-Hispanic white population in the US is 2 to 3 times higher than in Europe.

YOur normalization is not most likely, imo. Unaccounted for murders would disproportionately come from places like LA or Chicago with large populations that don't talk to cops, and/or gang culture that would be very opaque to investigators, and/or cops that are less motivated to investigate murders where the victims is a known bad guy.

 

[Baron]

What's about a group of Muslims rape a woman, police watching and doings nothing like everywhere in Europe.
Being Muslims e.g. in Germany like ticket to a VIP - society, no punishment, free welfare, any crime is allowed.