As much as I dislike Alec Baldwin, it will be uphill battle in securing a conviction, and it's even less likely that he will see the inside of a jail.
The decision to file charges is more about setting an example than the actual facts. Baldwin is being charged because he is Alec Baldwin. It is an example of a prosecutor trying to make an example out of somebody who is famous and in the public eye. It is likely the prosecution will be able to prove that gun safety protocols were not followed on set, but that is a big leap to Alec Baldwin being personally responsible, criminally, for a homicide. Actors are not in charge of ensuring prop safety (for good reason), and the idea that they might be made responsible with inspecting their own equipment will never fly with SAG, nor should it. Would you want those nitwits checking the safety of that stuff?
The assistant director, David Halls, who admitted he didn’t properly check the gun, is facing a suspended sentence and six months probation after signing a plea agreement for negligent use of a deadly weapon. This kind of undermines the DA's criminal charges.
Right now, though, Baldwin's lawyers need to shut his fucking mouth. The more that idiot talks about the case, and he's done a lot of that, the worse he is going to make it for himself.