Exploding the myths of climate scepticism

Saigon

Gold Member
May 4, 2012
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Helsinki, Finland
It seems that the most popular myth used on this board is the one that scientists are only in it for the money, and that their research produces whatever results their government or sources of funding ask for.

This makes no logical sense whatsoever, and hopefully we can now put it to rest forever.

1) Most climate change science is conducted by universities. Universities in Europe and much of the developed world are bulk funded. Meaning that the government gives University X a certain amount of money each year. From that budget come salaries, rents, equipment...everything. Each faculty is given funding from that total amount, and the heads of each department plan their research accordingly. Most universities have particular areas they focus on - for instance my local Aalto University Dept of Physics works with CERN in Switzerland, and contributes to work on cloud formation and activity.

The key point: there is no connection between funding and the results of research. The system is set up in such way to ENSURE that no political interference is possible, and to ensure the independence of areas such as Political Sciences and History.

2) Universities have at times produced research which their own governments (and thus sources of funding) found embarassing. In the US, Australia and New Zealand universities produced research backing human involvement in climate change during times when their own conservative goverments denied human involvement. If scientists were protecting their jobs, throwing your own government under a bus seems like a strange move.

3) All developed countries monitor their own climate. Finland records temperatures, humidity and rainfall, and has done for a century. Using only Finnish data, we can thus build up a pattern of Finnish weather patterns. This means that no global conspiracy is possible, because obviously if Austria maniuplated their data and Switzerland did not - the results would be completely incompatible with each other. The difference would be immediately evident and suspicious.

4) Not all scientists are liberal. Most I have met have shown very little interest in party politics, and are much more concerned with producing and publishing excellent research. Given it takes 15 years or so to become a Professor of Chemistry, it is not surprising that most of these people are less interested in politics than chemistry. Most are deeply devoted to their work, and would regard any shortcuts, falsification of data or lying as being completely unacceptable. Anyone suspected of, say, plagiarism would be outed, and we know this because it has happened once or twice around the world.

5) The idea of an international conspiracy amongst scientists simply is not possible. There are too many people in too many countries, working in too many places. Any attempt to suggest that particular scientists should suppress this document or falsify this data would leave a paper trial miles long. It would only need one person to print one email and any such paper trail would be in the newspapers the next day - as we saw with the U. Anglia debacle. Hence - no conspiracy would be possiible.

My hope is that we can get beyond the endless conspiracy theories after this, and at least stick to theories and ideas which are possible and which make sense.
 
I believe you are framing the question incorrectly. prominent skeptics are not claiming a 'conspiracy theory', but instead are pointing out an atmosphere of groupthink that has lead climate science into a corner which they are having a difficult time getting out of. every scientist wants to be involved with a grand idea that changes the paradigm of their field. CO2 induced global warming appeared to be just that grand idea.

by coincidence we had a temperature spike just as the grand idea was propagating amongst scientists and leaking out to the public. scientists were falling over themselves to dream up nightmare scenarios of doom because that is how they got noticed, and more significantly, govt funds started becoming easily available to show just how bad things could get. climate models concentrated on CO2 and possible positive feedbacks while the typical homeostatic natural responses to disturbances were ignored.

inconvenient history like the medieval warm period was actively attacked to promote the false idea that present temperatures are easily within normal range (even if CO2 is not). the science started to become 'post-normal', where advocacy was approved and so were iffy methodologies as long as the right message was getting through. scientists started closing ranks and denying private doubts to support public alarmism.

once the temps stopped rising they were in a bind. either change the theory or start 'massaging' the data until the temps started rising again (as they surely would, right?). they chose the later and that is why we are having this discussion.

temperature data sets have been 'corrected' to the point of being practically unrecognisible from 20 years ago. the same for sea level rise, ice melt, etc. the corrections are usually buried and the past data disappears. that is not how science is properly done and people like myself are upset, and many more are becoming so after they see example after example of how climate science is 'absolutely certain' until they change their story and are then absolutely certain again.

no conspiracy theory, just group think and easy funding and publication for those who share the right idea.
 
Its not the science, its the politcal response to whatever results de jour are being presented.

The response: More government control, less freedom, and more borrowed government spending.
 
Marty -

The response: More government control, less freedom, and more borrowed government spending.

I really have no idea what you mean by that. How you get less freedom out of cleaning up the atmosphere is beyond me.

If you do respond, please post clear and specific details.
 
I have no doubt that the earth is slightly warmer.
I believe we are in part responsible for some of that slight warming.

I do not believe the catastrophic predictions that are being used as an excuse to bring heavy handed government control down on our heads.

Sorry but if the earth is a few degrees warmer, we all aren't going to die some horrible death.
 
Ian C -

While there probably is an element of 'group think' within every scientific disipline, that does not make the science wrong.

I would agree that 'group think' might lead to a lack of questioning or a lack of discussion, but in this case few topics have been as fiercely debated and analysed as climate change has.

If any scientist or researcher could come up with a new angle or approach to the field of study, I'm sure he'd have no problem getting support - regardless of what his approach actually revealed.

I totally agree that the predictions have evolved significantly over time, and may now be virtually unrecognisable from what they were 20 years ago - and yet the same basic principles and conclusions have been proven true to the satisfaction or virtually everyone. Almost every question has been answered, and today's models are far better than those of a generation earlier. I don't think scientists need to apologise for learning as they go.
 
Sorry but if the earth is a few degrees warmer, we all aren't going to die some horrible death.

Probably not, no.

But the impact on agriculture may be severe and that needs to be planned - certainly it is already having a major impact on the economy and food supply in Australia, Peru, Chile etc.
 
Marty -

The response: More government control, less freedom, and more borrowed government spending.

I really have no idea what you mean by that. How you get less freedom out of cleaning up the atmosphere is beyond me.

If you do respond, please post clear and specific details.

That in order to prevent "climate change" we need to push things like carbon taxes, bans on incadescent lightbulbs, forced CAFE standards, and government investments in technologies that have not matured to the point of being able to stand on thier own.
 
Marty -

Some of those things I think are great - others don't make sense to me either.

I do think better technologies for things like light bulbs, phone chargers (which are starting to disappear here) or batteries are good for all of us. It's simple, it's cheap, and it saves us as consumers money on our electricity bills.

Some of the other issues I tend to agree with you on. Investing in private companies maybe has its place, but those investments have to pay off for the taxpayers.
 
Sorry but if the earth is a few degrees warmer, we all aren't going to die some horrible death.

Probably not, no.

But the impact on agriculture may be severe and that needs to be planned - certainly it is already having a major impact on the economy and food supply in Australia, Peru, Chile etc.

Some parts of the planet might be drier but others will become more conducive to food production.

Even if we ended CO2 production completely there is no way to predict how long it will take for for the greenhouse effect to dissipate and for the earth to cool to a slightly lower average temperature.

We have to face the fact that we will never be able to globally effect greenhouse emissions and learn how to adapt to any changes which will not all be bad changes.

Don't get me wrong I'm all for a cleaner energy system and IMHO nuclear is our best option for abundant reliable emission free power and that wide scale adoption of nuclear power would do more to stem greenhouse emissions than any other course of action.
 
Marty -

Some of those things I think are great - others don't make sense to me either.

I do think better technologies for things like light bulbs, phone chargers (which are starting to disappear here) or batteries are good for all of us. It's simple, it's cheap, and it saves us as consumers money on our electricity bills.

Some of the other issues I tend to agree with you on. Investing in private companies maybe has its place, but those investments have to pay off for the taxpayers.

But why mandate it by law (i.e. the lightbulb thing) instead of offering a better product?

Horse buggies were not made illegal, automobiles provided clear improvements over horse drawn vehicles. If these new lightbulbs are so awesome, why do the old ones need to be banned from manufacture?

As a note, I actually bought a whole lot of Compact flourescents because I find them more economical at this time. However I dont see the need to ban incandescents. If you make a superior Compact flourescent or LED they will sell themselves.
 
Marty -

I'm not sure if it was necessary to ban them, but they did seem to disappear globaly at much the same time, so there may hve been solid environmental reasons to do so. But in general terms I agree with you - the better product should sell itself.
 
Some parts of the planet might be drier but others will become more conducive to food production.

Don't get me wrong I'm all for a cleaner energy system and IMHO nuclear is our best option for abundant reliable emission free power and that wide scale adoption of nuclear power would do more to stem greenhouse emissions than any other course of action.

Yes, it will, no question. There will be new oppourtunities for cooler regions to produce more, and probably more cheaply.

But that also needs to be managed. One example of this - England is going into champagne production. They only needed a one degree temperature lift to make it viable, and now they have that, they can produce excellent bubbly.

I'm also a big fan of nuclear and for the same reasons as you - I just don't want to build them on faultlines!
 
Ian C -

While there probably is an element of 'group think' within every scientific disipline, that does not make the science wrong.

I would agree that 'group think' might lead to a lack of questioning or a lack of discussion, but in this case few topics have been as fiercely debated and analysed as climate change has.

If any scientist or researcher could come up with a new angle or approach to the field of study, I'm sure he'd have no problem getting support - regardless of what his approach actually revealed.

I totally agree that the predictions have evolved significantly over time, and may now be virtually unrecognisable from what they were 20 years ago - and yet the same basic principles and conclusions have been proven true to the satisfaction or virtually everyone. Almost every question has been answered, and today's models are far better than those of a generation earlier. I don't think scientists need to apologise for learning as they go.

I am not talking about the predictions, I am talking about the actual data.

at the end of the 90's Hansen was clear that there was no significant warming trend in the continental US. in the last 15 years one has been manufactured by doctoring the data. even the changes in the last five years are massive, lowering the past and raising the near present. have we had some fantastic breakthrough in measuring temps in the last five years? yes, computer modelling in 'correcting' and 'adjusting'.
 
Marty -

The response: More government control, less freedom, and more borrowed government spending.

I really have no idea what you mean by that. How you get less freedom out of cleaning up the atmosphere is beyond me.

If you do respond, please post clear and specific details.



s0n.....you have pronounced connect the dots issues.


You want zero carbon emissions. You would be better off standing in the middle of Siberia in the middle of January, buck naked screaming "FIRE!!!". Your sentiments are so fringe, its off the charts.

Not that I have any intention of changing your mind in this lifetime. Mental disorders dont go away.

But for the folks who wander in here looking for a compass on this stuff, I can only say this: ask yourself, "How is any of this science mattering in the real world?".

The answer is.......its not.

Renewable energy is going to be a fringe market for decades as Ive pointed out numerous times in these pages. Without fossil fuels, nobody is using a single fancy iPhone or thousands of other products we use daily. Electric cars are a green fantasy. Dont believe me? Look at the market breakdown. Want to pay DOUBLE for your electricity bill? Then go ahead and support the mental cases like Saigon and other AGW radicals on here. Indeed........if people want to go back to the times of the early 1800's in terms of life's conveniences, then by all means, jump on the green radicals bandwagon. No more Netflix or YouTube for you!!! If you like the idea of sitting around a fire at night and reading by candlelight, by all means, go k00k green.

Not that it will matter..........it would be more productive to join a group navel contemplation club in your town.:rock:
 
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Do I doubt something is happening to the world climate?

Absolutely not.

Do I doubt anyone can use the data to predict a long range outcome?

Absolutely.

Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, an effect which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.[1] This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved.[2] In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable.[3][4] This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos.
Chaotic behavior can be observed in many natural systems, such as weather.[5][6] Explanation of such behavior may be sought through analysis of a chaotic mathematical model, or through analytical techniques such as recurrence plots and Poincaré maps.
 
It seems that the most popular myth used on this board is the one that scientists are only in it for the money, and that their research produces whatever results their government or sources of funding ask for.

This makes no logical sense whatsoever, and hopefully we can now put it to rest forever.

1) Most climate change science is conducted by universities. Universities in Europe and much of the developed world are bulk funded. Meaning that the government gives University X a certain amount of money each year. From that budget come salaries, rents, equipment...everything. Each faculty is given funding from that total amount, and the heads of each department plan their research accordingly. Most universities have particular areas they focus on - for instance my local Aalto University Dept of Physics works with CERN in Switzerland, and contributes to work on cloud formation and activity.

The key point: there is no connection between funding and the results of research. The system is set up in such way to ENSURE that no political interference is possible, and to ensure the independence of areas such as Political Sciences and History.

2) Universities have at times produced research which their own governments (and thus sources of funding) found embarassing. In the US, Australia and New Zealand universities produced research backing human involvement in climate change during times when their own conservative goverments denied human involvement. If scientists were protecting their jobs, throwing your own government under a bus seems like a strange move.

3) All developed countries monitor their own climate. Finland records temperatures, humidity and rainfall, and has done for a century. Using only Finnish data, we can thus build up a pattern of Finnish weather patterns. This means that no global conspiracy is possible, because obviously if Austria maniuplated their data and Switzerland did not - the results would be completely incompatible with each other. The difference would be immediately evident and suspicious.

4) Not all scientists are liberal. Most I have met have shown very little interest in party politics, and are much more concerned with producing and publishing excellent research. Given it takes 15 years or so to become a Professor of Chemistry, it is not surprising that most of these people are less interested in politics than chemistry. Most are deeply devoted to their work, and would regard any shortcuts, falsification of data or lying as being completely unacceptable. Anyone suspected of, say, plagiarism would be outed, and we know this because it has happened once or twice around the world.

5) The idea of an international conspiracy amongst scientists simply is not possible. There are too many people in too many countries, working in too many places. Any attempt to suggest that particular scientists should suppress this document or falsify this data would leave a paper trial miles long. It would only need one person to print one email and any such paper trail would be in the newspapers the next day - as we saw with the U. Anglia debacle. Hence - no conspiracy would be possiible.

My hope is that we can get beyond the endless conspiracy theories after this, and at least stick to theories and ideas which are possible and which make sense.

Scientists in it for the money? I don't think very many of the detractors of the global warming stuff are saying that. Conspiracy? Maybe, depending on which one you are talking about. The demise of the Soviet Union left many academic leftists without a political home. A lot of them seem to have gravitated to the global warming movement - now called climate change, I guess, because the facts simply didn't support the warming premise. Well, they don't really support drastic human caused climate change of other types either. The independent measuring in different countries cited is the source of the facts that discredit global warming The rigging of the numbers, as you say is not possible. Thus, the left has dropped the warming idea in favor of pointing to various storms, etc. as evidence of a problem. Nothing is happening that hasn't happened before - from NATURAL - not manmade causes. No, not all scientists are left-leaning, but the vast majority who are certainly tend to pressure and intimidate the minority who aren't.

Ultimately, you just can't deny the facts/numbers which discredit the ideas you are trying to sell.
 
Do I doubt something is happening to the world climate?

Absolutely not.

Do I doubt anyone can use the data to predict a long range outcome?

Absolutely.

Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, an effect which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.[1] This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved.[2] In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable.[3][4] This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos.
Chaotic behavior can be observed in many natural systems, such as weather.[5][6] Explanation of such behavior may be sought through analysis of a chaotic mathematical model, or through analytical techniques such as recurrence plots and Poincaré maps.

To me, I do think you can model the climate with a general level of understanding, enough to see overall trends.

However, I do not see them as accurate enough to base massive changes to our economy and way of life.
 
Scientists in it for the money? I don't think very many of the detractors of the global warming stuff are saying that.

In the real world?

No, nobody is saying that.

But on this forum?

SSDD, Oddball, Skooks, SJ and quite a few others are saying that.


btw. I've actually never heard of a scientist from the Soviet Union working anywhere in the field of climate change. I dare say there are some, as the USSR did have an excellent education system for the sciences, but I strongly doubt any of them were ever serious communists.

btw. As for warming, it is worth considering that 2012 was th 9th hottest year ever globally, and the hottest ever in the US.
 
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Scientists in it for the money? I don't think very many of the detractors of the global warming stuff are saying that. Conspiracy? Maybe, depending on which one you are talking about. The demise of the Soviet Union left many academic leftists without a political home. A lot of them seem to have gravitated to the global warming movement - now called climate change, I guess, because the facts simply didn't support the warming premise. Well, they don't really support drastic human caused climate change of other types either...

The global climate change is due to a warming of the average global temperature.

Climate change was the original term (thus the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC founding in 1988 at the behest and prodding of the Reagan administration of the UN - among others- to investigate climate change issues).

Accusations of Climate science lies for grant/government money

WUWT - Climate Science: follow the money | Watts Up With That?

Forbes - The Fiction Of Climate Science - Forbes.com

Wall Street Journal - Bret Stephens: Climategate: Follow the Money - WSJ.com

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...IFR2GwCiQf3wcycwLazsOBg&bvm=bv.42661473,d.cGE

JunkScience - The Nonsensus: 97% to 98% of climate scientists believe in global warming? | JunkScience.com

(literally hundreds of thousands more where these came from)

As to facts, the national academy of sciences has a nice set of those that seem to expose the errors of your perspective upon what the science says:

Climate Change: Lines of Evidence videos » America's Climate Choices

and here are a few additional facts that seem at odds with your beliefs.

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48 Countries

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/icdc7/proceedings/abstracts/keeling.rFF328Oral.pdf
 

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