It seems that there's a price to be paid for fighting Israel's wars for them.
Oh well...at least big oil benefits--as usual.
The rest of us, not so much.
I note that this article only talks about gas prices..if one factors in increased shipping costs being passed on to the consumer...it's clear that the consumer is getting screwed again.
It’s been quite an eventful 24 hours, with Israel striking an Iranian gas field, Iran replying with an attack on the world’s biggest liquefied-natural-gas facility in Qatar, and in between Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ducking and weaving on questions about what the war will mean to the economy.
But it sets up the backdrop for an analysis done by four economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the impact of the war on the wallets of Americans.
They compare the tax refunds stemming from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — that giant piece of tax legislation passed last year — with the surge in gasoline prices.
The Internal Revenue Service has data on tax refunds through Feb. 27. They’re up, on average, by 11%, which is a benefit of $360 per filer compared with the same period of 2025. Outside estimates expect the average tax refund when all is said and done to be even higher. Morgan Stanley says $534 higher and the Tax Foundation says $748.
Neale Mahoney, Jared Bernstein, Caleb Brobst and Ryan Cummings use the highest number, $748, to compare with what is likely to happen at the pump over the course of the year. Bernstein was the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Biden administration, and Cummings was an economist at the White House between 2021 and 2023.
Using a simple model of the pass-through of crude oil to retail gasoline prices, the Stanford economists conclude that households will pay an extra $740 in gas costs this year.
They use two estimates from Goldman Sachs on the direction of Brent oil futures, one taken before the war and one taken after. The key thing here is that even the new Goldman Sachs estimate forecasts a three-week Strait of Hormuz closure. Given that Thursday marks the 20th day of the conflict, that means the war basically needs to end right now for even the newer Goldman forecast to hold true.
Oh well...at least big oil benefits--as usual.
The rest of us, not so much.
I note that this article only talks about gas prices..if one factors in increased shipping costs being passed on to the consumer...it's clear that the consumer is getting screwed again.
It’s been quite an eventful 24 hours, with Israel striking an Iranian gas field, Iran replying with an attack on the world’s biggest liquefied-natural-gas facility in Qatar, and in between Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ducking and weaving on questions about what the war will mean to the economy.
But it sets up the backdrop for an analysis done by four economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on the impact of the war on the wallets of Americans.
They compare the tax refunds stemming from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — that giant piece of tax legislation passed last year — with the surge in gasoline prices.
The Internal Revenue Service has data on tax refunds through Feb. 27. They’re up, on average, by 11%, which is a benefit of $360 per filer compared with the same period of 2025. Outside estimates expect the average tax refund when all is said and done to be even higher. Morgan Stanley says $534 higher and the Tax Foundation says $748.
Neale Mahoney, Jared Bernstein, Caleb Brobst and Ryan Cummings use the highest number, $748, to compare with what is likely to happen at the pump over the course of the year. Bernstein was the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Biden administration, and Cummings was an economist at the White House between 2021 and 2023.
Using a simple model of the pass-through of crude oil to retail gasoline prices, the Stanford economists conclude that households will pay an extra $740 in gas costs this year.
They use two estimates from Goldman Sachs on the direction of Brent oil futures, one taken before the war and one taken after. The key thing here is that even the new Goldman Sachs estimate forecasts a three-week Strait of Hormuz closure. Given that Thursday marks the 20th day of the conflict, that means the war basically needs to end right now for even the newer Goldman forecast to hold true.
