Entering into THE GREATEST DEPRESSION

[Neubarth]

The actual cause of the TOTAL collapse of the world economy is that the BUBBLE BURST. We had a good time while the economy soared, but contractions are part of every cycle and now we are in a contraction that has gotten out of contrOl.

Blaming it all on the Sub Prime Mortgage fiasco is wrong.

Blaming part of it on the Mortgage fiasco would be correct.

Blaming part of it on over expansion of shopping centers and business building would also be correct. Default is just starting on these investments and the Banks do not know what to do. Thousands of banks will fail because of these poor business decisions.

Other areas to blame would be the European banks lending to Eastern Europe to finance mortgages and business startups that could never be repaid if the eastern European currencies fell markedly against the Euro or Pound or Swiss Franc.

Unfortunately, that is exactly what happened and that is why Europe is plunging into Depression right now regardless of their emergency summit meetings.

Nobody can stop the downward momentum.

The downward momentum is not stopping in the United States and it is not stopping in Europe or Japan or in China. The whole world economic system is collapsing. The rate of collapse is frightening. A fall this rapid has never before been seen in world economic history. Oddly, there are still people long the stock market with average price to earnings ratios twice what they should be for a steady state economic condition, AND this is not steady state.

There is going to be a lot of chaos in the months and years ahead. Riots in all the major cities. England is already planning to use their military to supress the civilian population. The United States has secret plans for same as well as the FEMA concentration camps. We expect massive unrest in the United States. State militias will be used to shut off entrance to any state to migrants who do not have the means of self support. No need to allow them in to the state if they are just going to go on welfare. People attempting to illegally enter a state can and will be shot on sight. That happened in the Great Depression and will happen again.

Get ready folks. This summer will be a summer of unrest.

 

[Paulie]

Why do you come in here one day talking about things looking up because retail sales are up 1% and car sales are rising, and then another day you come in talking about the end of the fucking world?

Do you really think anyone here is taking you seriously at this point? you change your mind more than a woman. You're a bi-polar wacko.

 

[Neubarth]

Why do you come in here one day talking about things looking up because retail sales are up 1% and car sales are rising, and then another day you come in talking about the end of the fucking world?

Do you really think anyone here is taking you seriously at this point? you change your mind more than a woman. You're a bi-polar wacko.

Paulie, stop calling people names. You come across as an evil person spiritually when you do so.

I have told you at least three times now that I post what I see happening. It is good to stir communication. Just because I have posted something to invite comment does not mean that it is my religious conviction.

If you really want my convictions, I will tell it to you just this one time. I think we are crumbling economically. Not just the US but the whole world. I expect to see the military used against our citizens and all the FEMA camps that have been set up used to detain unruly citizens (to keep the rest of the public safe). Before the camps are opened, I fully expect to see riots in our cities. Raping, Robbing and pillaging will be frequent as unruly crowds take to mob violence because they have nothing, no jobs, no food and no shelter.

It is coming. Are you prepared? Do yo even know why it is going to happen? Do you even care.


______________

There, now that I have told you, What do you think about the stock market. It is going up tomorrow, Right?

 

[elvis]

Why do you come in here one day talking about things looking up because retail sales are up 1% and car sales are rising, and then another day you come in talking about the end of the fucking world?

Do you really think anyone here is taking you seriously at this point? you change your mind more than a woman. You're a bi-polar wacko.

Paulie, stop calling people names. You come across as an evil person spiritually when you do so.

I have told you at least three times now that I post what I see happening. It is good to stir communication. Just because I have posted something to invite comment does not mean that it is my religious conviction.

If you really want my convictions, I will tell it to you just this one time. I think we are crumbling economically. Not just the US but the whole world. I expect to see the military used against our citizens and all the FEMA camps that have been set up used to detain unruly citizens (to keep the rest of the public safe). Before the camps are opened, I fully expect to see riots in our cities. Raping, Robbing and pillaging will be frequent as unruly crowds take to mob violence because they have nothing, no jobs, no food and no shelter.

It is coming. Are you prepared? Do yo even know why it is going to happen? Do you even care.


______________

There, now that I have told you, What do you think about the stock market. It is going up tomorrow, Right?

how do you see all this happening?

 

[Toro]

I just don't agree with you on this, Neubarth.

I do think that we may have entered a depression, if you define it as a 10% contraction in economic activity. But the Greatest Depression? Greater than the 1930s? Greater than 1867-73? I don't think so.

Unemployment is going to 10%-12%, but I doubt we'll get anywhere near what happened in the 30s.

 

[elvis]

I just don't agree with you on this, Neubarth.

I do think that we may have entered a depression, if you define it as a 10% contraction in economic activity. But the Greatest Depression? Greater than the 1930s? Greater than 1867-73? I don't think so.

Unemployment is going to 10%-12%, but I doubt we'll get anywhere near what happened in the 30s.

I thought a depression was several consecutive recessions.

 

[sparky]

i fully expect our own governance to be the first to tell us what we want to hear, and the first to sell us out

so what would the group say are signs/sympthoms to watch?

imho, media degration, education degration, constitutional rights degration ..................

 

[Paulie]

Most would never even know it was a depression unless the media was so kind as to admit it to us via government stats.

I think that even though people are lazier now than in the 30's, we are way more resourceful. I think our current civilization could more successfuly ride out a depression than the one from the 30's. Just having a car that can take you anywhere you want to go is already a HUGE advantage over what most had in the 30's.

I'm one of the more bearish on this board, and I think we'll be fine. What the future holds for the US Dollar? I'm not so certain about that. But we'll be ok. Being well protected with precious metals and guns/ammo is a huge step in the right direction.

 

[Alex Jones]

Paulie, stop calling people names. You come across as an evil person spiritually when you do so.

I have told you at least three times now that I post what I see happening. It is good to stir communication. Just because I have posted something to invite comment does not mean that it is my religious conviction.

If you really want my convictions, I will tell it to you just this one time. I think we are crumbling economically. Not just the US but the whole world. I expect to see the military used against our citizens and all the FEMA camps that have been set up used to detain unruly citizens (to keep the rest of the public safe). Before the camps are opened, I fully expect to see riots in our cities. Raping, Robbing and pillaging will be frequent as unruly crowds take to mob violence because they have nothing, no jobs, no food and no shelter.

It is coming. Are you prepared? Do yo even know why it is going to happen? Do you even care.




FIMA Camps have been built and beta tested. In secret from 86-97, when declassified in 97.

google ARMY CIVILIAN INMATE LABOR PROGRAMS

Under REX-84 they have been training to deal with civil unrest in America.

Right now under NORTHCOM Mexican and Canadian soldiers are in the US

Haliburton / Cheney are involved heavily with FIMA camps. Haliburton admits it.

The Army is deployed for domestic operations right now, since October, it was in the ARMY TIMES newspaper

Under PD-51 The President has Power Over Congress

President Obama threatened members of Congress with martial law if Stimulus not passed.


I am concerned.

With Mexico collapsing, they will come into Texas, their will be pillaging, theft, food shortages, no employment, etc.

An "emergency" could be anything

 

[wimpy77]

neubath im sorry but your changing moods are becoming boring. i think people are starting to believe what the president said, things will get worse before they get better and they are.

a depression is defined technically as a year of decline in gdp by 10%. we haven't seen that and by most economist prediction we won't see that. im starting to agree with toro i think we will see 10% unemployment even though im hoping mark zandi is correct and it will top at 9%.

neubath yes this was caused by the banks and people buying houses they couldn't afford.

 

[Terry]

Neu,

I'm somewhere in the middle. I don't see it as bad as you state unless it goes on for years and unrest is extremely out of control. I think we will see riots, and more crime, and harder for people to feed their family but I'm not ready to go as far as you.

It's good to be prepared that is for sure because frankly nobody knows.

 

[sparky]

a depression is defined technically as a year of decline in gdp by 10%. we haven't seen that and by most economist prediction we won't see that. im starting to agree with toro i think we will see 10% unemployment even though im hoping mark zandi is correct and it will top at 9%.

and why should we continue to accept definitions by a governance that simply pulls them outta it's ass Whimp?

as far as i can see, the middle class has been in a slow and steady decline for a generation here

the evidence of that is overwhelmingly obvious to anything with the mental capacity above a bag of leaves

but instead we place our faith in poles who are greased by lobbyists, by the rich

further, doesn't our increasing disparity mean anything in regards to how our overall economy has been governed....? Or are we still banking on the trickle down effect?

i would say inquiring minds what to know, but i'd bet hungry stomachs won't give a shit....

 

[editec]

I also think we're in for a long world wide depression.

We might stave off the worst of it for a while, but the system itself was flawed at inception.

We in the first world cared more about our masters of the money supply than we cared about the people who do productive work.

And those masters structured the world of finances such that they won at the expense of everyone else, including our governments.

And when the machine that drives our economies stops thriving (that would be our middle classes) then it is impossible for the rest of the economy to continue getting richer.

The wildly inappropriate price of real estate was a bubble.

That bubble burst because incomes didn't keep up with the cost of real estate, edcuation and health care.

This economic collapse was inevitable.

And since all our governments are still controlled for the benefit of the monied classes, and since they apparently still don't get that the working classes actually produce the wealth every economy depends on, I don't think they're as yet on the path to solving the problems.

Twenty-five yars from now, I SUSPECT that people are going to fully understand how stupid our masters were, and how their greed and their inability to figure our where the wealth actually came from (they think they make the wealth, they don't).

A quarter century from today, everthing we currently think we know about economic WILL BE DIFFERENT.

The future economists are going to think of todays supply siders with the same contempt that today's chemists hold yesterdays alchemists.

Now I do not doubt that SOME economists already understand this. Some economist have probably ALWAYS understood that the source of all human wealth is human labor.

But those economists have been marginalized by the master class.

My son's generation is going to be living in a very different world that my generation lived though.

 

[auditor0007]

neubath im sorry but your changing moods are becoming boring. i think people are starting to believe what the president said, things will get worse before they get better and they are.

a depression is defined technically as a year of decline in gdp by 10%. we haven't seen that and by most economist prediction we won't see that. im starting to agree with toro i think we will see 10% unemployment even though im hoping mark zandi is correct and it will top at 9%.

neubath yes this was caused by the banks and people buying houses they couldn't afford.

Neubath is right about one thing; while the banking crisis is the end cause of this, the fact is that we did overbuild. In the US, we built more homes and shopping centers than the population could support. All of this overbuilding is the root cause of the banking collapse. If there were enough people to buy these homes and even more homes, we'd still be building them and they'd still be gaining in value, and the economy would still be moving forward at a decent pace.

This is going to get worse before it gets better, but I don't see this as the next Great Depression. And assuming we do hit 10% unemployment, that will mean that we have 90% employment. People won't be making or spending as much, but 90% will be paying their bills. The other thing that I already see happening is that the underground economy is starting to really take off. People are beginning to trade services without monetary transactions taking place. In many ways this is bad as it reduces the flow of money within the economy, but at the same time, it creates a secondary economy that is not normally there.

 

[sparky]

One things for sure, the only card our governance has to play is to throw $$$ at it, and hope it goes away

in lieu of some grandious argument for us to all live in mud huts on road kills as being patriotic, that is....

thing is, i've owned old beater chevy's that want more and more oil everyday, i've thrown good $$$ out for bad because it was easier than a top end job

bailouts amount to the same thing here, except it's our kids oil we're burning, instead of overhauling that top end that so direly needs it here....

 

[Neubarth]

I just don't agree with you on this, Neubarth.

I do think that we may have entered a depression, if you define it as a 10% contraction in economic activity. But the Greatest Depression? Greater than the 1930s? Greater than 1867-73? I don't think so.

Unemployment is going to 10%-12%, but I doubt we'll get anywhere near what happened in the 30s.

Toro, I am glad that you are an optimist. I want to be, but reality keeps on dragging me back to what I see happening.

There were four massive stock bubbles in the 20th Century: 1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000. During each of these bubble peaks, the S&P 500 neared or exceeded 25X on the great economics professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio.* After the first three of these peaks, the S&P 500 PE did not bottom until it hit 5X-8X. We're still in the middle of the last one.

That means, The DOW could go well below 4000. If that happens, so many companies will be bankrupt that you will never see a V or U correction. What we will see is an L economic performance. That means DOWN and then Level at that poor rate of economic performance. That may last for ten years or longer.

 

[sparky]

Nuebarth,
would it be an imposition to ask you for a laymans explanation here, V, U. L....?

 

[Toro]

Toro, I am glad that you are an optimist. I want to be, but reality keeps on dragging me back to what I see happening.

There were four massive stock bubbles in the 20th Century: 1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000. During each of these bubble peaks, the S&P 500 neared or exceeded 25X on the great economics professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio.* After the first three of these peaks, the S&P 500 PE did not bottom until it hit 5X-8X. We're still in the middle of the last one.

That means, The DOW could go well below 4000. If that happens, so many companies will be bankrupt that you will never see a V or U correction. What we will see is an L economic performance. That means DOWN and then Level at that poor rate of economic performance. That may last for ten years or longer.

You could very well be right, especially about the Dow going to 4000, but I am skeptical.

I look at Tobin's Q, which bottomed at 0.3 in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. Today, we would get to 400 on the SP500 at that level.

This time is being compared to the 30s. I think that is incorrect, at least in terms of its economic severity. However, if the stocks market reacts like it did in the 30s, once it 0.3x, it rose 180% over the next year and 240% over the next 3.5. That would put the SP500 at 1120 a year after and 1360 within 4. That's why I'm buying stocks today.

The median PE on the SP500 is 9.9x.

 

[Neubarth]

Nuebarth,
would it be an imposition to ask you for a laymans explanation here, V, U. L....?

Think of charts.

V Market goes down and then comes right up. (Sort of like what happened after 9/11)
U Market goes down, slows, hits a rolling bottom and slowly heads back up and then shoots up.
L Market goes down and then does not rise. It just goes off on a plateau. Japan did this in the 1990's. The bottom part of the L went on for eight or nine years with little improvement in the economy.

 

[Paulie]

Don't worry Neubarth, there's always a consumer confidence report or a auto sales report that goes up .5% that will most likely turn your entire outlook around to a positive one, followed by a thread from you predicting the largest economic turnaround in history.

Who knows, really. It all depends what day it is.