Electoral statistics galore for all members of USMB

[Statistikhengst]

Hi, I'm new to USMB, you can find my "hello" page HERE.

I have my own statistics blog, where I have been collecting, distilling and publishing electoral statistics since November of 2007, six years ago. I used to be known on the web with another nickname, which I have now changed to "Statistikhengst" and that is also part of the blog title:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond

I have a great passion for numbers and the trends we can establish based on those numbers, with time.

If you click on the Blog-Archive (right-hand side), by year, then by month, you will then see the titles of the blog entries. There is a enormous amount of information out there.

There are about 6 very large categories of statistical data that members of USMB might find very useful:

1.) State Electoral Biographies:​

In the month of November, 2007, I did 51 state "bio's", looking toward the 2008 presidential election. Those bios were then vastly updated in November-December of 2011, looking toward the 2012 presidential election, and I plan to update the bios in November of this year, looking toward 2016. Those bios contain just about every kind of practical data about that state's voting history.

Just to give a taste of what those bios are like, here is the bio for the state of West Virginia:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Rank 38 / 14: West Virginia

The choice of that state is purely random. I mentally said Wisconsin and West Virginia and then literally, just flipped a coin!

2.) Primary elections coverage:​

In 2008, I covered the Democratic primaries in extreme detail, with delegate count updates. Likewise, in 2012, I covered the Republican primaries.

3.) Polling:​

This is the category over which I have collected the most data of all. I collected every single general election poll for both 2008 and 2012. For both of those election cycles, I did a sort of prognosis/prediction about how the election was shaping up, based on composite polling averages. In 2008, I called the data collection a "poll convergence" and the analysis thereof a "distillation". Here was the final poll convergence for 2008:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE, No. 12

And the distillation:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: PC 12 - Distillation: Obama 356 / McCain 182 - however, with adjustment: Obama 375 / McCain 163

On the eve of the 2008 election I predicted Obama at between 356-375 EV, he came in at 365. In terms of the popular vote, I predicted:

BTW, a national average of +7.54, assuming 2% for third parties, would result in the following national popular vote:

Obama: 52.77%
McCain:45.23%
Other: 2%

In 2008, Obama won with 52.87% of the NPV, so I underpredicted his percentage by 0.10%. Pretty damned accurate.

In 2012, I moved to an EXCEL table format for all the poling results and called the prognoses/predictions "Electoral Landscapes".

Here is the final Electoral Landscape for 2012:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Bonncaruso's FINAL Electoral Landscape (No.8): Obama 303 / Romney 235

For 2012, I didn't predict a range. I predicted Obama 303 / Romney 235. I missed Florida, but got the rest right.

Since the national polling in 2012 was absolutely atrocious, I decided to not even try to pin a percentage on either candidate.

For both election cycles (2008, 2012), I ran a 42 day series of BATTLEGROUND REPORTS, leading up to election day. In those reports, I concentrated only on the states considered true battlegrounds for that election.

Two examples:

For 2008 - Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT - 11/02

For 2012 - Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL Battleground Report 11/04/2012: T-minus 2 days, DELUXE VERSION

Following both elections, I did regular updates on on the vote tallies as the states continued to adjust their records.

For both elections, I did a large end-analysis, roughly in January of the following year:

2008: Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: GE 2008 - End Analysis

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The 9.25 pick-up states from 2008 - analysis complete!!!

2012: Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: GE 2012 - End Analysis

I also ran an intensive comparison of the pollsters end-polling to the actual results:

2012: Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?

4.) Voter Registration Statistics:​

http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.de/2011/06/complete-vr-statistics-for-june-2011.html

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: VR Statistics in more than 28 states

5.) Ancillary, but important, statistics relatiing to US elections:​

http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.de/2011/06/partisan-rankings-2008-1988-1984-1964.html

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Partisan Ranking Tables as .jpg files

(The partisan rankings for 2012 are within the GE end-analysis)

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: ELECTORAL COLUMNS - a map display

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: CNN Presidential Election calls 1992-2012: a timeline study

6.) Hillary Clinton vs. GOP field: 2016 GE polling​

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part III



---------------------------------------------------------------------

This is just a small taste of all the information you can find at my politics blog. There are 907 blog entries dealing mostly with stats that you can enjoy.

Where do I get the numbers? Mostly from Dave Leips uselectionatlas.org website, which is considered the DEFINITIVE source of electoral statistic compilations across the world. Then there is also the congressional record, plus state SOS and BOE websites.

I invite all members of USMB who like electoral stuff to feel free to visit my politics blog, which I will be linking to quite often on this subforum. For the first time in 5 years, I am opening my blog to comments without much moderation, so if you wish, feel free to comment, but please notice my warning about keeping it respectful and salient.

One last point: though I am a Democrat, somewhere between Centrist and Left, I have always taken an impassionate approach to the numbers that I so love to crunch. These are the actual numbers as they were, they are now part of historical records, and no attempt is made to color them in one direction or another. A whalloping +40% landslide margin is just as "whalloping" when a Republican wins it as a Democrat! For this reason I can say to you that the information at my politics blog should be just as interesting and useful for a Conservative as for a Moderate or a Liberal.

If you wish to use or quote or link-in to the information on my blog, just hit me up with a PM. There are a number of sites already doing trackbacks to mine. And it's a lot easier for me to just link a great deal of statistical data I have already crunched than to reproduce it here in USMB. If you have any questions or ponderings about this, feel free to respond here or hit me up in PM.


best,

Statistikhengst

 

[Mertex]

Hi, I'm new to USMB, you can find my "hello" page HERE.

I have my own statistics blog, where I have been collecting, distilling and publishing electoral statistics since November of 2007, six years ago. I used to be known on the web with another nickname, which I have now changed to "Statistikhengst" and that is also part of the blog title:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond

I have a great passion for numbers and the trends we can establish based on those numbers, with time.

If you click on the Blog-Archive (right-hand side), by year, then by month, you will then see the titles of the blog entries. There is a enormous amount of information out there.

There are about 6 very large categories of statistical data that members of USMB might find very useful:

1.) State Electoral Biographies:​

In the month of November, 2007, I did 51 state "bio's", looking toward the 2008 presidential election. Those bios were then vastly updated in November-December of 2011, looking toward the 2012 presidential election, and I plan to update the bios in November of this year, looking toward 2016. Those bios contain just about every kind of practical data about that state's voting history.

Just to give a taste of what those bios are like, here is the bio for the state of West Virginia:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Rank 38 / 14: West Virginia

The choice of that state is purely random. I mentally said Wisconsin and West Virginia and then literally, just flipped a coin!

2.) Primary elections coverage:​

In 2008, I covered the Democratic primaries in extreme detail, with delegate count updates. Likewise, in 2012, I covered the Republican primaries.

3.) Polling:​

This is the category over which I have collected the most data of all. I collected every single general election poll for both 2008 and 2012. For both of those election cycles, I did a sort of prognosis/prediction about how the election was shaping up, based on composite polling averages. In 2008, I called the data collection a "poll convergence" and the analysis thereof a "distillation". Here was the final poll convergence for 2008:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE, No. 12

And the distillation:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: PC 12 - Distillation: Obama 356 / McCain 182 - however, with adjustment: Obama 375 / McCain 163

On the eve of the 2008 election I predicted Obama at between 356-375 EV, he came in at 265. In terms of the popular vote, I predicted:

BTW, a national average of +7.54, assuming 2% for third parties, would result in the following national popular vote:

Obama: 52.77%
McCain:45.23%
Other: 2%

In 2008, Obama won with 52.87% of the NPV, so I underpredicted his percentage by 0.10%. Pretty damned accurate.

In 2012, I moved to an EXCEL table format for all the poling results and called the prognoses/predictions "Electoral Landscapes".

Here is the final Electoral Landscape for 2012:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Bonncaruso's FINAL Electoral Landscape (No.8): Obama 303 / Romney 235

For 2012, I didn't predict a range. I predicted Obama 303 / Romney 235. I missed Florida, but got the rest right.

Since the national polling in 2012 was absolutely atrocious, I decided to not even try to pin a percentage on either candidate.

For both election cycles (2008, 2012), I ran a 42 day series of BATTLEGROUND REPORTS, leading up to election day. In those reports, I concentrated only on the states considered true battlegrounds for that election.

Two examples:

For 2008 - Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT - 11/02

For 2012 - Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL Battleground Report 11/04/2012: T-minus 2 days, DELUXE VERSION

Following both elections, I did regular updates on on the vote tallies as the states continued to adjust their records.

For both elections, I did a large end-analysis, roughly in January of the following year:

2008: Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: GE 2008 - End Analysis

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The 9.25 pick-up states from 2008 - analysis complete!!!

2012: Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: GE 2012 - End Analysis

I also ran an intensive comparison of the pollsters end-polling to the actual results:

2012: Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?

4.) Voter Registration Statistics:​

http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.de/2011/06/complete-vr-statistics-for-june-2011.html

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: VR Statistics in more than 28 states

5.) Ancillary, but important, statistics relatiing to US elections:​

http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.de/2011/06/partisan-rankings-2008-1988-1984-1964.html

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Partisan Ranking Tables as .jpg files

(The partisan rankings for 2012 are within the GE end-analysis)

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: ELECTORAL COLUMNS - a map display

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: CNN Presidential Election calls 1992-2012: a timeline study

6.) Hillary Clinton vs. GOP field: 2016 GE polling​

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part III



---------------------------------------------------------------------

This is just a small taste of all the information you can find at my politics blog. There are 907 blog entries dealing mostly with stats that you can enjoy.

Where do I get the numbers? Mostly from Dave Leips uselectionatlas.org website, which is considered the DEFINITIV source of electoral statistic compilations across the world. Then there is also the congressional record, plus state SOS and BOE websites.

I invite all members of USMB who like electoral stuff to feel free to visit my politics blog, which I will be linking to quite often on this subforum. For the first time in 5 years, I am opening my blog to comments without much moderation, so if you wish, feel free to comment, but please notice my warning about keeping it respectful and salient.

One last point: though I am a Democrat, somewhere between Centrist and Left, I have always taken an impassionate approach to the numbers that I so love to crunch. These are the actual numbers as they were, they are now part of historical records, and no attempt is made to color them in won direction or another. A whalloping +40% landslide margin is just as "whalloping" when a Republican wins it as a Democrat! For this reason I can say to you that the information at my politics blog should be just as interesting and useful for a Conservative as for a Moderate or a Liberal.

If you wish to use or quote or link-in to the information on my blog, just hit me up with a PM. There are a number of sites already doing trackbacks to mine. And it's a lot easier for me to just link a great deal of statistical data I have already crunched than to reproduce it here in USMB. If you have any questions or ponderings about this, feel free to respond here or hit me up in PM.


best,

Statistikhengst

Great information. I'm hoping that Christie sticks to his guns, and Ted Cruz ends up as their nominee.....I don't want to have to work too hard.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

In how many districts did Obama get more votes than there were registered voters?

 

[Mertex]

In how many districts did Obama get more votes than there were registered voters?

I'm sure you meant to say in the "districts where Republicans tried all kinds of tricks to eliminate certain voters"?

 

[Statistikhengst]

In how many districts did Obama get more votes than there were registered voters?

Hello, CrusaderFrank, thanks for stopping by.

The answer: probably in ZERO. There was the usual controversy that somehow, more Democratic votes were counted in some Philly wards than on the rolls, but those rolls did not contain the names of people who cast provisionals, which is why the lists have to be compared to each other. But I want to thank you from making the point, because this kind of stuff is part of the reason why it is always a good two-to-three month stretch in time between election night results and the final canvasses, which must officially be in by December 17th of each presidential election year, for December 17th is the date set for the electors to meet in their respective states and to choose the slate of electors based on the certified winning.


But even after that date, the vote totals can be amended again, often up to one year after the election, because of write-in vote challenges that had their day in court.

In how many districts did Obama get more votes than there were registered voters?

I'm sure you meant to say in the "districts where Republicans tried all kinds of tricks to eliminate certain voters"?

This also happened, but less than people realize, for Democratic voters, in a demonstrable "backlash against the backlash", made sure to get their voter IDs and they made sure to re registered and they made sure to vote.

But the hanky panky that went on in Virginia just a couple of weeks ago is indeed interesting. Looks like some GOPers tried to hide votes from Fairfax County. Thiis is still being investigated.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Great information. I'm hoping that Christie sticks to his guns, and Ted Cruz ends up as their nominee.....I don't want to have to work too hard.

The establishment Republicans will back Christie and then it will just be a matter of turnout. However the 2014 elections will dictate how strong the extreme right will be when it comes to the 2016 pick. If they do well they will demand someone like Cruz. If they are trounced the establishment will pour everything into backing Christie.

 

[Pogo]

Wow. Look Mertex -- this guy's even smarter that Warrior102

(Disclaimer: inside joke, not a sarcastic dig)

 

[Mertex]

Great information. I'm hoping that Christie sticks to his guns, and Ted Cruz ends up as their nominee.....I don't want to have to work too hard.

The establishment Republicans will back Christie and then it will just be a matter of turnout. However the 2014 elections will dictate how strong the extreme right will be when it comes to the 2016 pick. If they do well they will demand someone like Cruz. If they are trounced the establishment will pour everything into backing Christie.

Yeah, sort of what happened with Romney. As long as Christie remains loyal to some of his previous policies, he may not be as big a problem as if he all of a sudden starts moving more to the left, after he wins the nomination.

 

[Mertex]

Wow. Look Mertex -- this guy's even smarter that Warrior102

Absolutely!

 

[mudwhistle]

In how many districts did Obama get more votes than there were registered voters?

I'm sure you meant to say in the "districts where Republicans tried all kinds of tricks to eliminate certain voters"?

Certain voters like dead voters?

 

[Mertex]

In how many districts did Obama get more votes than there were registered voters?

I'm sure you meant to say in the "districts where Republicans tried all kinds of tricks to eliminate certain voters"?

Certain voters like dead voters?

No, they weren't checking for death certificates, just those with Dem leanings....

 

[Statistikhengst]

Great information. I'm hoping that Christie sticks to his guns, and Ted Cruz ends up as their nominee.....I don't want to have to work too hard.

The establishment Republicans will back Christie and then it will just be a matter of turnout. However the 2014 elections will dictate how strong the extreme right will be when it comes to the 2016 pick. If they do well they will demand someone like Cruz. If they are trounced the establishment will pour everything into backing Christie.

Yeah, sort of what happened with Romney. As long as Christie remains loyal to some of his previous policies, he may not be as big a problem as if he all of a sudden starts moving more to the left, after he wins the nominee.

I would like to point out there there is, amazingly, very little correlation between party performance or voter intensity in a mid-term vs. the next presidential cycle.

I suspect that in states where the Tea Party, as it calls itself, is very strong, it will just grow stronger in the GOP primaries. But in states where there are still some moderates (sometimes called establishment Republicans), that the moderates may win the upper-hand. And I strongly suspect that this will be a geographic phenomenon within the GOP.

 

[Derideo_Te]

The establishment Republicans will back Christie and then it will just be a matter of turnout. However the 2014 elections will dictate how strong the extreme right will be when it comes to the 2016 pick. If they do well they will demand someone like Cruz. If they are trounced the establishment will pour everything into backing Christie.

Yeah, sort of what happened with Romney. As long as Christie remains loyal to some of his previous policies, he may not be as big a problem as if he all of a sudden starts moving more to the left, after he wins the nominee.

I would like to point out there there is, amazingly, very little correlation between party performance or voter intensity in a mid-term vs. the next presidential cycle.

I suspect that in states where the Tea Party, as it calls itself, is very strong, it will just grow stronger in the GOP primaries. But in states where there are still some moderates (sometimes called establishment Republicans), that the moderates may win the upper-hand. And I strongly suspect that this will be a geographic phenomenon within the GOP.

Speaking of the latter the gerrymandered districts actually have relatively low winning margins ( less than 14%) according to what I heard. Under that scenario establishment backed moderates could unseat some of the Tea Party incumbents.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Speaking of the latter the gerrymandered districts actually have relatively low winning margins ( less than 14%) according to what I heard. Under that scenario establishment backed moderates could unseat some of the Tea Party incumbents.

One of the great sayings is that all politics is local, and that most certainly applies to races for the US House of Representatives - even a district that has interesting new stats due to extremist gerrymandering can had very unpredictable results. Don't count your teabags before they start to mildew.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In how many districts did Obama get more votes than there were registered voters?

I'm sure you meant to say in the "districts where Republicans tried all kinds of tricks to eliminate certain voters"?

Certain voters like dead voters?

If you think I am going to attack you or your posting over this, you are wrong. There HAVE been verified cases of dead people who mysteriously voted, but those cases were mostly in 1960 and even then, statistically insignificant. The point is that it is highly unlikely that very many dead voters suddenly showed up at the last presidential election.

Would you care to present some EXACT stats over this phenomenon?

Here are EXACT stats over voter fraud in the all important battleground state of Ohio:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: EXACT voter-fraud statistics out of Battleground OHIO

0.0024%

 

[JakeStarkey]

Some statistical sanity on the Board, finally.

Thanks, Stat!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Some statistical sanity on the Board, finally.

Thanks, Stat!

Danke sehr!
Thanks a lot.

My sig file kind of says it all.

Of course, sanity is such a relative term.....

Very nice to make your acquaintance!

-Stat