Lucy Hamilton
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- Oct 30, 2015
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Okay being a complete Political Junkie I do love playing around with things like this. I'm going to show some Electoral College situations using percentages of Demographic Groups for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump and showing various different scenarios. We are in most cases dealing with very small shifts in percentages in one Demographic Group that produces a very different Electoral College scenario.
The National Polls mean not a great deal, what does mean a great deal are the Electoral College votes, and like most Elections this Election will come down to who can get the most peoples out to actually vote. In certain combined States in 2016 - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania there were approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.
Okay the below is Electoral College Scenario I this in my opinion is the best The Donald could hope for.
The Demographics for this are that The Donald gets 78% of White, non-college graduates, 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians:
^^^^ The above Demographic percentages result in this:
As I commented above very small percentages changes in just one Demographic Group result in very different Scenarios. This is the first if we give The Donald the same as the above in ALL Demographic Groups except ONE - 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians BUT we change the percentage in White, non college graduate from the above 78% to 74% we get the below Electoral College Scenario II:
If we change TWO of the Demographic groups for The Donald and reduce the Black percentage from 10% to 8% and we reduce the Hispanic percentage from 31% to 27% then we get the below Electoral College Scenario III:
If we increase for The Donald the White, non college graduates percentage from 78% to 86% and we increase the White, college graduates percentage from 65% for Biden to 72% for Biden then we get the Electoral College vote below and it is the below Electoral College vote scenario why I am commenting in my opening comments that those approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.
The below is Electoral College Scenario IV:
The National Polls mean not a great deal, what does mean a great deal are the Electoral College votes, and like most Elections this Election will come down to who can get the most peoples out to actually vote. In certain combined States in 2016 - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania there were approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.
Okay the below is Electoral College Scenario I this in my opinion is the best The Donald could hope for.
The Demographics for this are that The Donald gets 78% of White, non-college graduates, 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians:
^^^^ The above Demographic percentages result in this:
As I commented above very small percentages changes in just one Demographic Group result in very different Scenarios. This is the first if we give The Donald the same as the above in ALL Demographic Groups except ONE - 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians BUT we change the percentage in White, non college graduate from the above 78% to 74% we get the below Electoral College Scenario II:
If we change TWO of the Demographic groups for The Donald and reduce the Black percentage from 10% to 8% and we reduce the Hispanic percentage from 31% to 27% then we get the below Electoral College Scenario III:
If we increase for The Donald the White, non college graduates percentage from 78% to 86% and we increase the White, college graduates percentage from 65% for Biden to 72% for Biden then we get the Electoral College vote below and it is the below Electoral College vote scenario why I am commenting in my opening comments that those approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.
The below is Electoral College Scenario IV:
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