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# Dr. Fauci predicts 100k to 200k deaths in the US

##### Platinum Member
You guys don't know this about me, but I'm actually a epidemitoligistary, and I have my own prediction. 4 gajillion deaths in America alone.
However, we also know you are a lying ass, so there is that to consider!

#### Fort Fun Indiana

##### Diamond Member
The predictions have changed. 2 million was reduced to 20,000 then raised (by MSM) to 200,000 while Fauci says 100,000.
No. You are vomiting numbers cherry picked from all over the place. You are the one who is confused, not everyone else. Models only say what they say. Our actions will heavily affect the final number. Ready to place your bets on how many?

#### Leo123

##### Gold Member
The death rate in the U.S. for diagnosed cases is 1.7%. That means you have a 99.3% chance of NOT dying from Coronavirus. even if you are diagnosed. Perspective people.

#### Fort Fun Indiana

##### Diamond Member
The death rate in the U.S. for diagnosed cases is 1.7%. That means you have a 99.3% chance of NOT dying from Coronavirus. even if you are diagnosed.
Well, no it doesn't, as some people diagnosed will die and have not yet died. But this isn't math class, so we can't fail Leo out of the thread.

But what matters more than this simple, snapshot percentage is the actual number of people who will not necessarily die, but will require hospitalization. The "death rate" of covid-19 isn't an inherent property of the virus. It's a number we have a big hand in creating.

##### Platinum Member
The death rate in the U.S. for diagnosed cases is 1.7%. That means you have a 99.3% chance of NOT dying from Coronavirus. even if you are diagnosed. Perspective people.
99.3 + 1.7 is 101. Check your math.

#### RoshawnMarkwees

##### Assimilationist
The predictions have changed. 2 million was reduced to 20,000 then raised (by MSM) to 200,000 while Fauci says 100,000.
No. You are vomiting numbers cherry picked from all over the place. You are the one who is confused, not everyone else. Models only say what they say. Our actions will heavily affect the final number. Ready to place your bets on how many?

#### healthmyths

##### Gold Member
I don't get it. Do some people not know what "could" means?
Dr. Fauci's further statement...
"There are things called models, and when someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions.
And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.
Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst-case scenario actually came out. They always overshoot."

Dr. Fauci's experience with worst/best case scenarios is that "reality is somewhere in the middle".
NOT the 200,000 cases as Axios headline stated. "100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die from coronavirus"

#### Biff_Poindexter

##### Gold Member
That less frightening than some of the scientific models I’ve seen predicting millions of deaths. Let’s hope thee figures are as few as possible

Fauci says US could have 'millions' of coronavirus cases and over 100,000 deaths

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, on Sunday warned that the novel coronavirus could infect millions of people in the United States and account for more than 100,000 deaths.

thehill.com
Fauci is wrong....

There are really only 15 cases and that will be down to zero in the next short period of time...

#### Biff_Poindexter

##### Gold Member
I don't get it. Do some people not know what "could" means?
Could means 0.1% of the U.S. population could die from the virus here in the States and it could be more ( which is most likely your wish for political reasons ) and it could be far less, so who knows, well except you of course because you will claim trillions will perish because of Trump...
If Trump had handled this thing like the incredibly competent leader he thinks he is there would be few complaints. He has stumbled every step of the way. America does not forgive indecisiveness in a crisis.
Yes we do...

Trump's approval ratings are higher than any other president in history

##### Gold Member
Dr Doom is at it again..... he always panics and predicts the worse

#### Fort Fun Indiana

##### Diamond Member
. Fauci's experience with worst/best case scenarios is that "reality is somewhere in the middle".
Which is him still saying 200,000 is possible, exactly as the headline states. Stop wasting your time.

#### Fort Fun Indiana

##### Diamond Member
The predictions have changed. 2 million was reduced to 20,000 then raised (by MSM) to 200,000 while Fauci says 100,000.
No. You are vomiting numbers cherry picked from all over the place. You are the one who is confused, not everyone else. Models only say what they say. Our actions will heavily affect the final number. Ready to place your bets on how many?

Check the country there, my man...

#### healthmyths

##### Gold Member
. Fauci's experience with worst/best case scenarios is that "reality is somewhere in the middle".
Which is him still saying 200,000 is possible, exactly as the headline states. Stop wasting your time.
Really 200,000 deaths? That is the middle? The headlines say 100,000 to 200,000! But that was the WORST case prediction!

FACTS... dummies like you are evidently ignorant of!!!

“When people change their behavior,” said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

#### Fort Fun Indiana

##### Diamond Member
Really 200,000 deaths? That is the middle?
No, but you don't seem to be following. 200,000 is possible. As the headline says. I can't dumb this down any further for you.

#### healthmyths

##### Gold Member
Really 200,000 deaths? That is the middle?
No, but you don't seem to be following. 200,000 is possible. As the headline says. I can't dumb this down any further for you.

Yes... it is possible. Just as possible as YOU coming to your senses that the BIASED MSM is telling the WORST part of Fauci's forecast.
How many times must I copy the actual words of Dr. Fauci?
Here READ word for word ok?
"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, made the dire prediction of fatalities on CNN, adding that millions in the U.S. could become infected."

NOW what did Dr. Fauci say???
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union"
Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target."
"There are things called models, and when someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions.
And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions.
And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.

Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle.
I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst-case scenario actually came out.

They always overshoot."

Axios headline: Fauci says 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die from coronavirus

AGAIN my point is which IS evidently IMPOSSIBLE for you and your ilk to understand...
The model that "could kill 100,000 - 200,000"... was the WORST case model!
So the biased MSM takes the WORST-CASE figures and uses that!

But the truly impossibility is YOU comprehending this!
RIGHT NOW...
FACTS! Total cases USA... 143,532.
Total deaths 2,572 which is 1.79% of cases
If there were 100,000 deaths at 1.79% how many cases would that be? 5,580,560 cases in the USA.
Right now IN the world population of 7,800,000,000 there are 741,030 cases or 0.009500% of the world's population!
Of USA total population of 330,000,000 RIGHT now 3/30/20 the total USA COVID-19 cases represents 0.04349455%
To get to the 200,000 deaths in the USA of the 330,000,000 population there would have to be 11,161,119 CASES!

Which would mean a rate of 3.38% of all Americans would have to be tested and found with COVID-19.

The numbers don't LIE!
AGAIN, right now 1.79% of the 143,532 US COVID-19 cases die!
NOT 3.38%

FACTS...

#### bendog

##### Platinum Member

100-200K dead if we do all we can?

Hey, probably a hoax. But Dump says 100K deaths means his administration had done "a very good" job

#### healthmyths

##### Gold Member

100-200K dead if we do all we can?

Hey, probably a hoax. But Dump says 100K deaths means his administration had done "a very good" job

Well once again you are proving the point regarding the BIASED MSM and you hating Trump!
Geez she didn't say if we do a very good job. She said if we do things almost perfectly!
PLUS Dr. Fauci said this but you don't seem to acknowledge it...
And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.
Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle.
I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst-case scenario actually came out.

Now for some facts:
Total cases USA... 143,532. Total deaths 2,572
which is 1.79% of cases
If there were 100,000 deaths at 1.79% how many cases would that be?
5,580,560 cases in the USA.
Right now IN the world population of 7,800,000,000 there are 741,030 cases or
0.009500% of the world's population!

Of USA total population of 330,000,000 RIGHT now 3/30/20 the total
USA COVID-19 cases represents 0.04349455%

To get to the 200,000 deaths in the USA of the
330,000,000 population there would have to be
11,161,119 CASES!
Which would mean a rate of 3.38% of all Americans would have to be tested and found with COVID-19.
The numbers don't LIE!
AGAIN, right now 1.79% of the 143,532 US COVID-19 cases die!

NOT 3.38%!

DO YOU understand? To make the 200,000 deaths would require 11,161,119 CASES in the USA.
I'm shouting now OK???
There are as of right now 0.04349455% of the total USA population of 330 million .only 143,532 cases,
To get 200,000 DEATHS with a death rate of 1.79% which it is NOW... means there would have to be 11,173,184 CASES!!
And Fauci/Birx say 2.2 million cases!!

So which is it? Will the death rate climb to 3.8% of cases ending in death... or by mitigation efforts... it stays at 1.79% and of ALL Americans 11,173,184 end up with Covid-19
and we then have 200,000 deaths? You really think nearly 12 million Americans will end up with Covid-19???

#### RoshawnMarkwees

##### Assimilationist
The predictions have changed. 2 million was reduced to 20,000 then raised (by MSM) to 200,000 while Fauci says 100,000.
No. You are vomiting numbers cherry picked from all over the place. You are the one who is confused, not everyone else. Models only say what they say. Our actions will heavily affect the final number. Ready to place your bets on how many?

Check the country there, my man...
UK and US. The US prediction was 2 million, tamped down to 20k and now back up over 100k.

##### Designing Woman
The predictions have changed. 2 million was reduced to 20,000 then raised (by MSM) to 200,000 while Fauci says 100,000.
No. You are vomiting numbers cherry picked from all over the place. You are the one who is confused, not everyone else. Models only say what they say. Our actions will heavily affect the final number. Ready to place your bets on how many?

So Donald Trump has gone from calling this a "hoax" to saying 100,000 people could die. Well done Donnie.

That's 20,000 in the United Kingdom. They have a population of 66 million people - 20% of the American population, so that's the equivalent of 100,000 deaths in the USA. Dr. Birx was on TV this morning saying 100,00 to 200,000 death IF and only IF the USA does everything "perfectly" from here on .

I seriously doubt that things will go "perfectly" at all. The rate of infection among medical staff and EMT staffers is already at 20%, and you didn't have enough staff to handle the number of cases expected, in the first place.

Everything the administration has done to this point has been too little, too late, and it's going to be impossible to get out ahead of this thing without UNLIMITED AMOUNTS OF TESTING.

#### JimBowie1958

##### Old Fogey
The death rate in the U.S. for diagnosed cases is 1.7%. That means you have a 99.3% chance of NOT dying from Coronavirus. even if you are diagnosed. Perspective people.
More like a 98.3% chance, but if it is Trumps fault, it will BE MILLIONS DYING IN THE STREETS AND BODIES BURNING IN THICK BLACK SMOKE! ! !

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE ! ! !

roflmao

We will probably have tens of millions of detected cases with about 100k to 200k deaths. The worst case scenarios are well over 200k and go into the millions.

But we can stop the spread of COVID19 if we get made at each other on an internet message board! That'll stop it!

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