Dow Drops 317. Time For Crackheads to Ween Themselves from Stimulus

[Moonglow]

And yet you remember it from way back then. That's how recognizable it is to people who have seen it.


Black-Scholes was a watershed moment in option pricing. And as I said, every trader carries a calculator around today which incorporates the model. It is well known within the world of economists.

The maths behind economics are far more complex than that ridiculous string of nonsense EconChick posted.


As for the big picture she keeps harping on about, no economist on earth would be making the amateurish mistakes she is making about the economy as a whole based on a couple of days of downturn on something as volatile and randomly walking as the stock market.

She's a total fake.

The only fake here is you, darlin. So you're a number cruncher that loves to be down in the weeds. Great. There are millions of you. That doesn't make you an economist. And it sure as hell doesn't make you a macro-economist.

You've YET to answer the signal the markets are sending.

Because you can't.

'You lose all my money and I'll put a FULL magazine in your candy ass " ... that's the signal I sent to my broker ... any questions ?

My Step Dad was an investment securities broker for 39 years, and his ass was whittled away from customers chewing his ass...

 

[Toro]

At some point, I think tapering will have an effect on the market.

Is it now? I don't think so. I bought some more stocks this morning.

But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this is the top. Unlikely, but perhaps.

There are two races going on right now.

First is whether growth can achieve escape velocity before the Fed starts to taper. If it can, rates will be able to rise more appropriately.

Second is whether the Fed can taper before inflation gets ahead of the curve. It if can, then they can head inflation off at the pass.

So, if we grow fast enough, the Fed can taper, suck back out some liquidity, tweak rates to respond to inflation, and we'll be fine. If not, well, I'd rather not think about that.

Happy thoughts!

.

I bought at the lows today (lucky) and am now leveraged. I have more dry powder and will add on further declines.

I am trading, and will change my mind in a heartbeat if I think I'm wrong. Only a third of my capital is in long term investments.

At some point, this will stop. But right now, we are in a bull market, and have been for 5 years. Every decline has been an opportunity to buy.

 

[Toro]

.

I think it's the formula for figuring out women.

.

It's too simple.

 

[Toro]

Well, look at that.

Just like those of us who actually understand the market predicted.

All that artificial driving up of the stock market numbers we kept warning about? Well, we told ya, what goes up, must come down.

And we warned ya that once there were "signs" of an "improving" economy, the crack heads would have to start weening themselves from all that free money pushing up the stock market. Well not free, but with zero interest rates, almost free.

Ooops, in Obama's fucked up Bizzarro World, good economic news is bad news for the stock market.

This is the watershed event. Watch smart investors start to slowly pull out.

Predicted what?

A 312 drop in the market?

Naw..you guys are "predicting" a 10-20% crash.

And "smart" investors are still buying.

This dip, which by the way happened on a regular basis during the Bush administration, was due to the Argentine default.

And the collapsing Russian economy.

Nothing about it was due to anything done in the US.

By Monday? We'll be back up.

Hack.

I think that at some point, we will have a very sharp correction, probably a bear market with a decline of 20% to 30%. I think QE has inflated most assets, and when it unwinds, it will be painful. I just don't think it's now.

Bear markets are fairly common. Since WWII, we've had 12 corrections of 20% or more, and they happen on average every 5.5 years. We are 5.4 years into this bull market. They usually, but not always, happen in advance of a recession, with 8 of those corrections occurring before a recession. But QE is very unusual, and the market has reacted very positively to more QE. Thus, I'm afraid that at some point, we will have a very negative reaction to the end of QE, particularly with stocks so expensive.

 

[EconChick]

Many of the folks who are trying to teach you correct principles here are not libs.

Teach me? LMFAO. You can't teach me a fucking thing. I've never seen so many inept dullards in such close proximity in my life.

And the motor mouths STILL haven't told us what signals the market it sending.

But by all means, keep talking about things that have nothing to do with this thread.

 

[EconChick]

Of some note on all the FAGERALS slapping themselves on back...In today!

11,472,000 Americans Have Left Workforce Since Obama Took Office | CNS News

9 million of those were baby boomers retiring .... try and keep up and quit hijacking threads ... Virgil.

Hijacking threads? You and your fellow lunkheads have done nothing but hijacked this thread.

I've talked about the overall economy, and you nitwits keep talking about trades.

Since this is like talking to 2 years olds, I'll say it again. I'm not asking about dumbass trades.

 

[EconChick]

And yet you remember it from way back then. That's how recognizable it is to people who have seen it.


Black-Scholes was a watershed moment in option pricing. And as I said, every trader carries a calculator around today which incorporates the model. It is well known within the world of economists.

The maths behind economics are far more complex than that ridiculous string of nonsense EconChick posted.


As for the big picture she keeps harping on about, no economist on earth would be making the amateurish mistakes she is making about the economy as a whole based on a couple of days of downturn on something as volatile and randomly walking as the stock market.

She's a total fake.

The only fake here is you, darlin. So you're a number cruncher that loves to be down in the weeds. Great. There are millions of you. That doesn't make you an economist. And it sure as hell doesn't make you a macro-economist.

You've YET to answer the signal the markets are sending.

Because you can't.

'You lose all my money and I'll put a FULL magazine in your candy ass " ... that's the signal I sent to my broker ... any questions ?

What part of "I'm not talking about trades does your small brain not grasp?"

 

[EconChick]

Well, look at that.

Just like those of us who actually understand the market predicted.

All that artificial driving up of the stock market numbers we kept warning about? Well, we told ya, what goes up, must come down.

And we warned ya that once there were "signs" of an "improving" economy, the crack heads would have to start weening themselves from all that free money pushing up the stock market. Well not free, but with zero interest rates, almost free.

Ooops, in Obama's fucked up Bizzarro World, good economic news is bad news for the stock market.

This is the watershed event. Watch smart investors start to slowly pull out.

Predicted what?

A 312 drop in the market?

Naw..you guys are "predicting" a 10-20% crash.

And "smart" investors are still buying.

This dip, which by the way happened on a regular basis during the Bush administration, was due to the Argentine default.

And the collapsing Russian economy.

Nothing about it was due to anything done in the US.

By Monday? We'll be back up.

Hack.

I think that at some point, we will have a very sharp correction, probably a bear market with a decline of 20% to 30%. I think QE has inflated most assets, and when it unwinds, it will be painful. I just don't think it's now.

Bear markets are fairly common. Since WWII, we've had 12 corrections of 20% or more, and they happen on average every 5.5 years. We are 5.4 years into this bull market. They usually, but not always, happen in advance of a recession, with 8 of those corrections occurring before a recession. But QE is very unusual, and the market has reacted very positively to more QE. Thus, I'm afraid that at some point, we will have a very negative reaction to the end of QE, particularly with stocks so expensive.

Why thank you for that economic answer, Toro.

Somebody actually grasps the difference between trading and macroeconomic signals.

Siete, Jakey, g5000.....take notes lunkies - your microperspectives bore the daylights out of the rest of us.

 

[EconChick]

Wanna play games with formulas g50000? How about you Sieste?

Go ahead, tell me what this is.

f (x) = (x+1) (5x + 6) + log (x − 8) g (x) = 3^(x+1) − 3^(x−1) h (x) = √(x − 2)² − 3 k (x) = −4x² + 5x r (x) = x + √x 6.1



If you can't tell me what this model indicates, you definitely need to run off with your tail between your legs.


fx=(1+x) = x+((x^2)/2)+((x^3)/3)+.....((x^n)/n)+.....




I'm waiting.

Crickets.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Ahem!!! Attention everyone!! I am a trained neurosurgeon. I know more about the inner workings of the human body than anyone who has ever posed a word here at USMB. Don't try to quiz me on medical terminology, however. If you do, I'll leave for a few hours and come back with a quiz of my own. I'll show you!!!!

 

[Mac1958]

At some point, I think tapering will have an effect on the market.

Is it now? I don't think so. I bought some more stocks this morning.

But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this is the top. Unlikely, but perhaps.

There are two races going on right now.

First is whether growth can achieve escape velocity before the Fed starts to taper. If it can, rates will be able to rise more appropriately.

Second is whether the Fed can taper before inflation gets ahead of the curve. It if can, then they can head inflation off at the pass.

So, if we grow fast enough, the Fed can taper, suck back out some liquidity, tweak rates to respond to inflation, and we'll be fine. If not, well, I'd rather not think about that.

Happy thoughts!

.

I bought at the lows today (lucky) and am now leveraged. I have more dry powder and will add on further declines.

I am trading, and will change my mind in a heartbeat if I think I'm wrong. Only a third of my capital is in long term investments.

At some point, this will stop. But right now, we are in a bull market, and have been for 5 years. Every decline has been an opportunity to buy.

Yeah. What concerns me is that a nice, normal correction is being delayed by all the cash on the sidelines. They're jumping in on every dip (so far), and there's enough on the sidelines to push the correction back. Weird situation. We had a nice 16% dip in the S&P in 2010 and went back on our merry way within the bull.

The portfolios we run are all long the market in equities, the difference being how much of each is in stocks, 10% to 90%. Then we hedge with various bonds (which are much easier to call) and alts. Nice and smooth, and understandable for the clients. I'll bet you have a much stronger stomach than me, man, seriously.

.

 

[ErikViking]

Well, look at that.

Just like those of us who actually understand the market predicted.

All that artificial driving up of the stock market numbers we kept warning about? Well, we told ya, what goes up, must come down.

And we warned ya that once there were "signs" of an "improving" economy, the crack heads would have to start weening themselves from all that free money pushing up the stock market. Well not free, but with zero interest rates, almost free.

Ooops, in Obama's fucked up Bizzarro World, good economic news is bad news for the stock market.

This is the watershed event. Watch smart investors start to slowly pull out.

A quote box featuring the story would be nice.

You could at least give us a link.

Sorry about that, Shart. 95% of that post was basically my opinion. I haven't read any analysis of it yet. It's been my prediction for a long time that the bad news will start to come when interest rates start to tick back up like they did today.

I find that I like posts reflecting individual thinking from a personal perspective. Rather than one line followed by a text mass from somewhere else. Well done!

 

[zeke]

The strange thing is that the hypocrites on the radical left celebrate every spike in the DOW as long as Barry Hussein is in office. They hate and despise so called "corporate wealth" and apparently they have no idea that the DOW indicates corporate wealth.

The real strange thing is how the hypocrites on the right fight all the time for tax cuts for the ultra wealthy. But let a Democrat give the ultra wealthy the cheapest cost of capital so that the ultra wealthy can make a fucking killing.......and the righties get all pissed off.

Why is that. Both actions serve and benefit the same group; the ultra wealthy.

 

[JakeStarkey]

What is astounding that the left and the right, each in its own way, protect the uber rich. Disgusting.

And I would expect not only ec to be able to do algebraic equations, I expect her to display some skill in what she knows.

She simply cannot swing the bat at in Double AA level.

 

[EconChick]

Ahem!!! Attention everyone!! I am a trained neurosurgeon. I know more about the inner workings of the human body than anyone who has ever posed a word here at USMB. Don't try to quiz me on medical terminology, however. If you do, I'll leave for a few hours and come back with a quiz of my own. I'll show you!!!!

And your answer is?

I see. You don't have the first fucking clue.

Got it.

What's wrong? You don't understand economics? Of course you don't.

 

[EconChick]

What is astounding that the left and the right, each in its own way, protect the uber rich. Disgusting.

And I would expect not only ec to be able to do algebraic equations, I expect her to display some skill in what she knows.

She simply cannot swing the bat at in Double AA level.

Awww, what's wrong Jakey Fakey. You panicking now? Can't answer the question?

Keep up the diversion, though, I'm sure the adults in the room are impressed.

 

[EconChick]

G5000, I'm waiting.

Crickets.

You gonna botch this too?

One more time. What signal does THIS market send? Not last year, not 20 years ago, not 80 years ago. This week honey.

Crickets

 

[Moonglow]

The signal is to bring more donuts...

 

[EconChick]

Ahem!!! Attention everyone!! I am a trained neurosurgeon. I know more about the inner workings of the human body than anyone who has ever posed a word here at USMB. Don't try to quiz me on medical terminology, however. If you do, I'll leave for a few hours and come back with a quiz of my own. I'll show you!!!!

I know it's hard for you to grasp, genius, but this thread is about the market NOW. As in the last few days.

Do you know the difference between this week and last week?

Do you know the difference between this week and 50 years ago?

I keep trying to get down to you and your pals' elementary understanding but apparently you folks can't even grasp that.

I tried to start with very simplistic algebra darling. And you FAILED.

I don't think you even grasp algebra.

Hell, I don't even think you understand simple math.

Wait. I know you don't.

 

[EconChick]

The signal is to bring more donuts...

LOL, at least that one makes me laugh.