Dow Drops 317. Time For Crackheads to Ween Themselves from Stimulus

[LoneLaugher]

Ahem!!! Attention everyone!! I am a trained neurosurgeon. I know more about the inner workings of the human body than anyone who has ever posed a word here at USMB. Don't try to quiz me on medical terminology, however. If you do, I'll leave for a few hours and come back with a quiz of my own. I'll show you!!!!

I know it's hard for you to grasp genius but this thread is about the market NOW. As in the last few days.

Do you know the difference between this week and last week?

Do you know the difference between this week and 50 years ago?

I keep trying to get down to you and your pals' elementary understanding but apparently you folks can't even grasp that.

I tried to start with very simplistic algebra darling. And you FAILED.

I don't think you even grasp algebra.

Oooooh! One post quoted twice! Score!

I have been boycotting algebra since the 9th grade. I'm considering ending my boycott and studying it for a few hours just so I can stump you like G did. That was fun to watch.

You say you keep trying to go down....but are getting no payoff. That sounds like a you problem. But...keep calling me darling and honey and your luck might change.

 

[EconChick]

There are two races going on right now.

First is whether growth can achieve escape velocity before the Fed starts to taper. If it can, rates will be able to rise more appropriately.

Second is whether the Fed can taper before inflation gets ahead of the curve. It if can, then they can head inflation off at the pass.

So, if we grow fast enough, the Fed can taper, suck back out some liquidity, tweak rates to respond to inflation, and we'll be fine. If not, well, I'd rather not think about that.

Happy thoughts!

.

I bought at the lows today (lucky) and am now leveraged. I have more dry powder and will add on further declines.

I am trading, and will change my mind in a heartbeat if I think I'm wrong. Only a third of my capital is in long term investments.

At some point, this will stop. But right now, we are in a bull market, and have been for 5 years. Every decline has been an opportunity to buy.

Yeah. What concerns me is that a nice, normal correction is being delayed by all the cash on the sidelines. They're jumping in on every dip (so far), and there's enough on the sidelines to push the correction back. Weird situation. We had a nice 16% dip in the S&P in 2010 and went back on our merry way within the bull.

The portfolios we run are all long the market in equities, the difference being how much of each is in stocks, 10% to 90%. Then we hedge with various bonds (which are much easier to call) and alts. Nice and smooth, and understandable for the clients. I'll bet you have a much stronger stomach than me, man, seriously.

.

If you're instincts are going all funny, that's the first sign it ain't right.

It's a bubble. One hell of a convoluted bubble.

 

[EconChick]

Ahem!!! Attention everyone!! I am a trained neurosurgeon. I know more about the inner workings of the human body than anyone who has ever posed a word here at USMB. Don't try to quiz me on medical terminology, however. If you do, I'll leave for a few hours and come back with a quiz of my own. I'll show you!!!!

I know it's hard for you to grasp genius but this thread is about the market NOW. As in the last few days.

Do you know the difference between this week and last week?

Do you know the difference between this week and 50 years ago?

I keep trying to get down to you and your pals' elementary understanding but apparently you folks can't even grasp that.

I tried to start with very simplistic algebra darling. And you FAILED.

I don't think you even grasp algebra.

Oooooh! One post quoted twice! Score!

I have been boycotting algebra since the 9th grade. I'm considering ending my boycott and studying it for a few hours just so I can stump you like G did. That was fun to watch.

You say you keep trying to go down....but are getting no payoff. That sounds like a you problem. But...keep calling me darling and honey and your luck might change.

LOL, where did G's formula answer the question WHAT SIGNAL DOES THIS MARKET SEND????????????????????????

Talk about a phoney. She can't even tell me in English, let alone a relevant formula. I mean she can explain it in formula if she wants, but it has to be the answer to THIS thread.

I'm waiting, G.

Crickets.

 

[EconChick]

Ahem!!! Attention everyone!! I am a trained neurosurgeon. I know more about the inner workings of the human body than anyone who has ever posed a word here at USMB. Don't try to quiz me on medical terminology, however. If you do, I'll leave for a few hours and come back with a quiz of my own. I'll show you!!!!

I know it's hard for you to grasp genius but this thread is about the market NOW. As in the last few days.

Do you know the difference between this week and last week?

Do you know the difference between this week and 50 years ago?

I keep trying to get down to you and your pals' elementary understanding but apparently you folks can't even grasp that.

I tried to start with very simplistic algebra darling. And you FAILED.

I don't think you even grasp algebra.

Oooooh! One post quoted twice! Score!

I have been boycotting algebra since the 9th grade. I'm considering ending my boycott and studying it for a few hours just so I can stump you like G did. That was fun to watch.

You say you keep trying to go down....but are getting no payoff. That sounds like a you problem. But...keep calling me darling and honey and your luck might change.

And thank you for admitting you don't know algebra. Something one of you said I actually respect for a change, some honesty.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I know it's hard for you to grasp genius but this thread is about the market NOW. As in the last few days.

Do you know the difference between this week and last week?

Do you know the difference between this week and 50 years ago?

I keep trying to get down to you and your pals' elementary understanding but apparently you folks can't even grasp that.

I tried to start with very simplistic algebra darling. And you FAILED.

I don't think you even grasp algebra.

Oooooh! One post quoted twice! Score!

I have been boycotting algebra since the 9th grade. I'm considering ending my boycott and studying it for a few hours just so I can stump you like G did. That was fun to watch.

You say you keep trying to go down....but are getting no payoff. That sounds like a you problem. But...keep calling me darling and honey and your luck might change.

And thank you for admitting you don't know algebra. Something one of you said I actually respect for a change, some honesty.

I am always honest here, dummy. Why aren't you?

And...are you sure G is a "she"?

 

[Toro]

There are two races going on right now.

First is whether growth can achieve escape velocity before the Fed starts to taper. If it can, rates will be able to rise more appropriately.

Second is whether the Fed can taper before inflation gets ahead of the curve. It if can, then they can head inflation off at the pass.

So, if we grow fast enough, the Fed can taper, suck back out some liquidity, tweak rates to respond to inflation, and we'll be fine. If not, well, I'd rather not think about that.

Happy thoughts!

.

I bought at the lows today (lucky) and am now leveraged. I have more dry powder and will add on further declines.

I am trading, and will change my mind in a heartbeat if I think I'm wrong. Only a third of my capital is in long term investments.

At some point, this will stop. But right now, we are in a bull market, and have been for 5 years. Every decline has been an opportunity to buy.

Yeah. What concerns me is that a nice, normal correction is being delayed by all the cash on the sidelines. They're jumping in on every dip (so far), and there's enough on the sidelines to push the correction back. Weird situation. We had a nice 16% dip in the S&P in 2010 and went back on our merry way within the bull.

The portfolios we run are all long the market in equities, the difference being how much of each is in stocks, 10% to 90%. Then we hedge with various bonds (which are much easier to call) and alts. Nice and smooth, and understandable for the clients. I'll bet you have a much stronger stomach than me, man, seriously.

.

It's hard. There are few investments that are genuinely attractive in the world. Residential real estate in most US markets outside of the gateway cities still looks good, as does commercial real estate in some markets, but most assets are expensive due to QE. Long-term returns are almost certainly to be lower over the next 5-10 years.

If you look back over the past five years, declines of 10% or more have been triggered by geopolitical (i.e. Greece) or domestic (i.e. debt ceiling) events. And the market is becoming more inured to such events. Generally, big corrections don't happen when there is an ocean of liquidity flooding the world. Bear markets usually, but not always, occur when credit is getting tight. Tapering is a tightening of the market, but that doesn't mean liquidity is tight. Far from it. However, gold fell off a cliff in 2011 in the midst of tremendous liquidity, so perhaps it's different this time. What is particularly worrying is the structure of the market has changed. With market makers gone and replaced by HFT traders in the stock market, and Dodd-Frank having eviscerating the prop desks of the banks that supplied liquidity to the bond markets, dislocations are more likely to occur when the market does finally decide to sell off.

 

[eagle1462010]

I know it's hard for you to grasp genius but this thread is about the market NOW. As in the last few days.

Do you know the difference between this week and last week?

Do you know the difference between this week and 50 years ago?

I keep trying to get down to you and your pals' elementary understanding but apparently you folks can't even grasp that.

I tried to start with very simplistic algebra darling. And you FAILED.

I don't think you even grasp algebra.

Oooooh! One post quoted twice! Score!

I have been boycotting algebra since the 9th grade. I'm considering ending my boycott and studying it for a few hours just so I can stump you like G did. That was fun to watch.

You say you keep trying to go down....but are getting no payoff. That sounds like a you problem. But...keep calling me darling and honey and your luck might change.

And thank you for admitting you don't know algebra. Something one of you said I actually respect for a change, some honesty.

Look. I agree with you on it being a Giant bubble. It's BS and the day is coming when the FIAT BS will crash the whole thing down.

The equation posted isn't Algebra. It is a Derivative equation. It's been too many years since I've solved those kind of problems but the answer is a parabolic graph were you determine the parameters of x. If you want the volume of an irregular shape we would have to go into integrals...........

Damn. It's been too many years on that math.

Don't get wrapped up by the BS games they play. The equation they posted doesn't mean a thing. It's a diversion against the reality of the situation. Which would go into math of Dev e Q

 

[Mac1958]

.

I don't see a market bubble right now. The P/E of the Dow is 15.72, the S&P is 18.80, NASDAQ is 22.54. Meh.

Agree with Toro, the trigger could be geo-political. Holy crap, knowing the market, the trigger could be a Kim Kardashian divorce. I think the market is pretty much just looking for an excuse right now.

But we still need a correction. Give me at least 10%. 18-20% and I'm all over it.

,

 

[eagle1462010]

 

[eagle1462010]

US Interest Rate | Actual Value | Historical Data | Forecast

US Fed Cuts Bond Buying Program to $25 Billion


During the meeting held on July 30th, US Federal Open Market Committee reduced monthly asset purchases by another $10 Billion and said slack in the labor market persists even as the economy is improving.

Extracts from the Federal Reserve Press Release:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in August, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

 

[EconChick]

Oooooh! One post quoted twice! Score!

I have been boycotting algebra since the 9th grade. I'm considering ending my boycott and studying it for a few hours just so I can stump you like G did. That was fun to watch.

You say you keep trying to go down....but are getting no payoff. That sounds like a you problem. But...keep calling me darling and honey and your luck might change.

And thank you for admitting you don't know algebra. Something one of you said I actually respect for a change, some honesty.

Look. I agree with you on it being a Giant bubble. It's BS and the day is coming when the FIAT BS will crash the whole thing down.

The equation posted isn't Algebra. It is a Derivative equation. It's been too many years since I've solved those kind of problems but the answer is a parabolic graph were you determine the parameters of x. If you want the volume of an irregular shape we would have to go into integrals...........

Damn. It's been too many years on that math.

Don't get wrapped up by the BS games they play. The equation they posted doesn't mean a thing. It's a diversion against the reality of the situation. Which would go into math of Dev e Q

Roger on the giant bubble, eagle.

The algebra comment goes back to another thread where I was trying to explain to people throwing out linear math that economics is more complex than 2+2=4 and I gave the most elementary algebra example I could to show non-linear thinking.

My comments are for the undecideds who are actually trying to learn.

 

[eagle1462010]

And thank you for admitting you don't know algebra. Something one of you said I actually respect for a change, some honesty.

Look. I agree with you on it being a Giant bubble. It's BS and the day is coming when the FIAT BS will crash the whole thing down.

The equation posted isn't Algebra. It is a Derivative equation. It's been too many years since I've solved those kind of problems but the answer is a parabolic graph were you determine the parameters of x. If you want the volume of an irregular shape we would have to go into integrals...........

Damn. It's been too many years on that math.

Don't get wrapped up by the BS games they play. The equation they posted doesn't mean a thing. It's a diversion against the reality of the situation. Which would go into math of Dev e Q

Roger on the giant bubble, eagle.

The algebra comment goes back to another thread where I was trying to explain to people throwing out linear math that economics is more complex than 2+2=4 and I gave the most elementary algebra example I could to show non-linear thinking.

My comments are for the undecideds who are actually trying to learn.

I haven't done the higher math functions in quite a while. It makes my head hurt.

 

[EconChick]

Look. I agree with you on it being a Giant bubble. It's BS and the day is coming when the FIAT BS will crash the whole thing down.

The equation posted isn't Algebra. It is a Derivative equation. It's been too many years since I've solved those kind of problems but the answer is a parabolic graph were you determine the parameters of x. If you want the volume of an irregular shape we would have to go into integrals...........

Damn. It's been too many years on that math.

Don't get wrapped up by the BS games they play. The equation they posted doesn't mean a thing. It's a diversion against the reality of the situation. Which would go into math of Dev e Q

Roger on the giant bubble, eagle.

The algebra comment goes back to another thread where I was trying to explain to people throwing out linear math that economics is more complex than 2+2=4 and I gave the most elementary algebra example I could to show non-linear thinking.

My comments are for the undecideds who are actually trying to learn.

I haven't done the higher math functions in quite a while. It makes my head hurt.

LOL, roger. I keep trying to think of ways to bring those down to understandable levels for people who want to really understand. Not the hacks, for the majority of Americans that are confused by the crazy ass stats.

 

[eagle1462010]

It's good to be the king.........................

Hey Federal Reserve........I'd like get a loan from your discount window...................

Pretty please.................

 

[EconChick]

A quote box featuring the story would be nice.

You could at least give us a link.

Sorry about that, Shart. 95% of that post was basically my opinion. I haven't read any analysis of it yet. It's been my prediction for a long time that the bad news will start to come when interest rates start to tick back up like they did today.

I find that I like posts reflecting individual thinking from a personal perspective. Rather than one line followed by a text mass from somewhere else. Well done!

Thanks, Erik. Have a good day over there. Well, maybe night by now.

 

[Moonglow]

Look. I agree with you on it being a Giant bubble. It's BS and the day is coming when the FIAT BS will crash the whole thing down.

The equation posted isn't Algebra. It is a Derivative equation. It's been too many years since I've solved those kind of problems but the answer is a parabolic graph were you determine the parameters of x. If you want the volume of an irregular shape we would have to go into integrals...........

Damn. It's been too many years on that math.

Don't get wrapped up by the BS games they play. The equation they posted doesn't mean a thing. It's a diversion against the reality of the situation. Which would go into math of Dev e Q

Roger on the giant bubble, eagle.

The algebra comment goes back to another thread where I was trying to explain to people throwing out linear math that economics is more complex than 2+2=4 and I gave the most elementary algebra example I could to show non-linear thinking.

My comments are for the undecideds who are actually trying to learn.

I haven't done the higher math functions in quite a while. It makes my head hurt.

Forgot how to complete the square or cube? Calculate the amount of beans in a jar....Win the prize...

 

[Toro]

.

I don't see a market bubble right now. The P/E of the Dow is 15.72, the S&P is 18.80, NASDAQ is 22.54. Meh.

Agree with Toro, the trigger could be geo-political. Holy crap, knowing the market, the trigger could be a Kim Kardashian divorce. I think the market is pretty much just looking for an excuse right now.

But we still need a correction. Give me at least 10%. 18-20% and I'm all over it.

,

The trailing PE of the median stock on the S&P 500 is 20x. It's 21x if you exclude financials and energy. That's expensive, and future returns will be low, but it's not a bubble. Stocks like GE were trading north of 40x in 1999. Cisco traded at 117x. Now THAT'S a bubble!

 

[EconChick]

Oooooh! One post quoted twice! Score!

I have been boycotting algebra since the 9th grade. I'm considering ending my boycott and studying it for a few hours just so I can stump you like G did. That was fun to watch.

You say you keep trying to go down....but are getting no payoff. That sounds like a you problem. But...keep calling me darling and honey and your luck might change.

And thank you for admitting you don't know algebra. Something one of you said I actually respect for a change, some honesty.

I am always honest here, dummy. Why aren't you?

And...are you sure G is a "she"?

I have no idea. I thought people referred to G as a she. Is G a he?

And at some point, I'm going to put you on ignore.....because you're completely incapable of posting in a respectful way to anyone. You need to learn to post like a non-troll if you want to be taken seriously.

 

[eagle1462010]

It's good to be the king.

At an interest rate of .25% at the discount window.

Can the rest of America play Federal Reserve?????????????

 

[eagle1462010]

Roger on the giant bubble, eagle.

The algebra comment goes back to another thread where I was trying to explain to people throwing out linear math that economics is more complex than 2+2=4 and I gave the most elementary algebra example I could to show non-linear thinking.

My comments are for the undecideds who are actually trying to learn.

I haven't done the higher math functions in quite a while. It makes my head hurt.

Forgot how to complete the square or cube? Calculate the amount of beans in a jar....Win the prize...

f(x) = x^2 Show me.