Paul Ryan became a Republican icon in 2011 with
an ambitious budget devoted to lower tax rates, slowing the growth of social entitlements and, above all, “lifting the crushing burden of debt.” It became his party’s economic mission statement.
In Donald Trump, Republicans now have a presidential candidate who rejects virtually every element of that vision. He is erratic on taxes, won’t touch entitlements, and proudly calls himself “the king of debt.” ...
Mr. Trump’s rise shows that austerity and debt are spent as political forces in both parties. In a world of rock-bottom interest rates, big debts don’t matter like they used to. But those conditions could change in coming years, setting up a potential collision course between a Trump administration and financial markets. ...
Mr. Trump is the antithesis of Mr. Ryan, not because he has a different economic philosophy, but because he doesn’t have any. He does, however, have a keen sense of what voters want. Earlier this year, he blamed Mr. Romney’s loss on his choice of Mr. Ryan as running mate, “because he represented cutting entitlements.” Mr. Trump early on distinguished himself from other Republican candidates by promising to leave Medicare and Social Security alone.
The publicly held federal debt is now 74% of GDP and, the Congressional Budget Office says it will hit 86% in 2026 with current policies in place. Mr. Trump claims to be worried about the debt. Yet he’s promised to slash taxes, keep entitlements as they are, spend more on infrastructure and defense and deport 11 million illegal immigrants. Mr. Trump’s agenda is simply not compatible with stabilizing, much less reducing, the debt.
By one estimate, Mr. Trump’s plans (including his tax cuts, which he says are negotiable) would boost debt to 129% of GDP by 2026.
But more debt probably wouldn’t bother him. While Mr. Ryan considers debt almost immoral, Mr. Trump sees it as useful. ...
Creditors served as the main constraint on Mr. Trump’s borrowing as a businessman. He was adept at keeping them at bay, but some of his properties still ended up in bankruptcy. No such constraint exists on the U.S. since, as Mr. Trump notes, the government can simply “print the money” to repay whatever it borrows. ...