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...with a little science over hype
How Anti-Immigration Activists Misuse Rape Statistics
Edited to correct link.
How Anti-Immigration Activists Misuse Rape Statistics
The Internet has brought an enormous mass of knowledge to the fingertips of everyone with a computer, smartphone or tablet. Never before have so many individuals been so close to true scientific facts about the world, from fun facts about animals to the latest crime statistics. Large communities with blogs, forums and social media groups have grown up around a wide variety of special interests and it has become a powerful tool for communication, cooperation and the advancement of human knowledge.
However, this has also led to the creation of ideologically isolated Internet communities, where faulty claims and misunderstandings of statistics and empirical evidence gets repeated in an endless echo chamber and all refutations are either ignored, misrepresented or subjected to ideologically driven rejection, often with stale references to supposed “political correctness”, as if that was a statistically mature rebuttal.
This article will show that according to crime victim surveys, the actual rate of sex crimes has been more or less unchanged in Sweden between 2005 and 2014, despite the fact that immigration has increased during the same time period. Instead, the increasing rates of reported rapes are influenced by expansion of the legal rape definition, an increase in the tendency to report rapes, police efforts to classify each individual rape as a separate crime and their tendency to classify any sex crime that could potentially be rape as rape. It will also demonstrate that reported rates between countries such as Sweden and Denmark cannot be naively compared to do the large difference in legal rape definition and police registration methods.
....
Conclusion
The moral of the story is that you should not get your information about crime statistics from shady blogs who make trivial statistical errors (like confusing reported and actual crimes) or Youtube videos. Instead, go to the original scientific papers or crime victim surveys, read them and understand the methodology, results, limitations and conclusions. There are no shortcuts to substantial knowledge.
The increasing rates of reported rape in Sweden is primarily caused by a repeated expansion of the rape definition, the fact that police is consciously reported all rapes as individual reports and an observed increase in the tendency to report rape. The differences between rates of reported rape between e. g. Sweden and Denmark is caused by differences in rape definition, differences in registration methods and efforts to rape all sex crimes that might be rape as rape.
In the end, it is doubly ironic that anti-immigration activists say that they refuse to read mainstream media because of its bias, yet (1) are strongly influenced by the increase in sensationalist coverage of violent crime by mainstream media and (2) are so willing to believe claims made by “alternative” media that are unsupported and often contradicted by actual crime victim survey results.
However, this has also led to the creation of ideologically isolated Internet communities, where faulty claims and misunderstandings of statistics and empirical evidence gets repeated in an endless echo chamber and all refutations are either ignored, misrepresented or subjected to ideologically driven rejection, often with stale references to supposed “political correctness”, as if that was a statistically mature rebuttal.
This article will show that according to crime victim surveys, the actual rate of sex crimes has been more or less unchanged in Sweden between 2005 and 2014, despite the fact that immigration has increased during the same time period. Instead, the increasing rates of reported rapes are influenced by expansion of the legal rape definition, an increase in the tendency to report rapes, police efforts to classify each individual rape as a separate crime and their tendency to classify any sex crime that could potentially be rape as rape. It will also demonstrate that reported rates between countries such as Sweden and Denmark cannot be naively compared to do the large difference in legal rape definition and police registration methods.
....
Conclusion
The moral of the story is that you should not get your information about crime statistics from shady blogs who make trivial statistical errors (like confusing reported and actual crimes) or Youtube videos. Instead, go to the original scientific papers or crime victim surveys, read them and understand the methodology, results, limitations and conclusions. There are no shortcuts to substantial knowledge.
The increasing rates of reported rape in Sweden is primarily caused by a repeated expansion of the rape definition, the fact that police is consciously reported all rapes as individual reports and an observed increase in the tendency to report rape. The differences between rates of reported rape between e. g. Sweden and Denmark is caused by differences in rape definition, differences in registration methods and efforts to rape all sex crimes that might be rape as rape.
In the end, it is doubly ironic that anti-immigration activists say that they refuse to read mainstream media because of its bias, yet (1) are strongly influenced by the increase in sensationalist coverage of violent crime by mainstream media and (2) are so willing to believe claims made by “alternative” media that are unsupported and often contradicted by actual crime victim survey results.
Edited to correct link.
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