Current Trade Deficit Is 22% Higher Than Same Period in 2016

[Tom Paine 1949]

October 6, 2020

These statistics were compiled by Public Citizen’s Global Watch from recent official government data. “Public Citizen” is a long-time liberal public interest group that has fought globalizing corporations and most international trade agreements, including NAFTA & the TPP. Though even official government statistics can be fudged, it is clear there has been no reduction but a significant INCREASE in balance of payments deficits since Trump’s election in 2016. This despite protectionist tariffs, new intense financial sanctions backed by use of the SWIFT banking payment system, and the “Stage One Trade Treaty” with China, which mandated China purchase more U.S. agricultural products (at the expense of other producers).

The Democrats have proposed further federal government “Buy American” policies. However it is very questionable whether ANYTHING can really improve the U.S. trade situation given the bipartisan consensus to spend more than we earn, and our growing addiction to Federal Reserve easy credit and fiat money, which under present conditions and in accord with prevailing ideology only encourages speculative money manipulation. U.S. dollar domination of world trade also tends to create trade deficits (see: Triffin dilemma - Wikipedia ). Bipartisan policies to spend a great part of our national wealth on military expenditures, rather than increasing investments and efficiency of our economy, also hurts our real competiveness and can only lead to a new arms race that endangers our very existence.

Finally, the Covid-19 pandemic will likely continue to hurt the U.S. economy whoever wins the election, at least for the next two or three quarters. Meanwhile, China has fully stopped the spread of Covid and the only new cases there are those imported from abroad. Its factory production is again booming, and its schools all open. The U.S. commodity trade deficit will probably continue to worsen.

Here are excerpts from the Global Watch report:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – An inflation-adjusted analysis of today’s latest Census Bureau trade data ... shows that the $424.8 billion trade deficit in the first eight months of 2020 is more than 22% higher than the $347 billion deficit during the same period in 2016.

The August 2020 monthly deficit of $67 billion is also the largest monthly deficit since August 2006, an unexpectedly large growth in the trade deficit given that the value of trade flows declined 15% overall (down $570 billion) compared to last year because of the global COVID-19 crisis.

“The overall 2020 deficit is on track to be larger than in 2016,” said Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch division...

Public Citizen’s analysis of the new U.S. Census Bureau trade data also showed:

• The eight-month 2020 deficit in manufactured goods is 12% higher than in 2016....
• The China trade-in-goods deficit is down relative to 2016, but there is a “trade diversion” effect of imports increasing from other countries.
• The 2020 eight-month trade in goods deficit with China of $194 billion is 20% smaller compared to 2016, when it was $244 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars for the January to August period. The China deficit is down more than 17% in inflation-adjusted terms from 2019, when it was $236 billion in the first eight months.
• In inflation-adjusted dollars, the goods trade deficit with the rest of the world (excluding China) increased from $365.7 billion to $385.3 billion in the first eight months of 2020 relative to the same period in 2019, a more than 5% rise...
  — Current Trade Deficit Is 22% Higher Than Same Period in 2016

Here is a related article on U.S. use (and abuse) of the SWIFT banking system and sanctions in international trade, and the threat of international U.S.-China trade “decoupling.”

How the US uses the dollar payments system to impose sanctions on a global scale

 

[KissMy]

I see that in the trade numbers. Trump pulled a Rope-A-Dope on US and played US for Chumps!

 

[pknopp]

Taxing the consumers some more should help that.

 

[Ben Thomson]

October 6, 2020

These statistics were compiled by Public Citizen’s Global Watch from recent official government data. “Public Citizen” is a long-time liberal public interest group that has fought globalizing corporations and most international trade agreements, including NAFTA & the TPP. Though even official government statistics can be fudged, it is clear there has been no reduction but a significant INCREASE in balance of payments deficits since Trump’s election in 2016. This despite protectionist tariffs, new intense financial sanctions backed by use of the SWIFT banking payment system, and the “Stage One Trade Treaty” with China, which mandated China purchase more U.S. agricultural products (at the expense of other producers).

The Democrats have proposed further federal government “Buy American” policies. However it is very questionable whether ANYTHING can really improve the U.S. trade situation given the bipartisan consensus to spend more than we earn, and our growing addiction to Federal Reserve easy credit and fiat money, which under present conditions and in accord with prevailing ideology only encourages speculative money manipulation. U.S. dollar domination of world trade also tends to create trade deficits (see: Triffin dilemma - Wikipedia ). Bipartisan policies to spend a great part of our national wealth on military expenditures, rather than increasing investments and efficiency of our economy, also hurts our real competiveness and can only lead to a new arms race that endangers our very existence.

Finally, the Covid-19 pandemic will likely continue to hurt the U.S. economy whoever wins the election, at least for the next two or three quarters. Meanwhile, China has fully stopped the spread of Covid and the only new cases there are those imported from abroad. Its factory production is again booming, and its schools all open. The U.S. commodity trade deficit will probably continue to worsen.

Here are excerpts from the Global Watch report:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – An inflation-adjusted analysis of today’s latest Census Bureau trade data ... shows that the $424.8 billion trade deficit in the first eight months of 2020 is more than 22% higher than the $347 billion deficit during the same period in 2016.

The August 2020 monthly deficit of $67 billion is also the largest monthly deficit since August 2006, an unexpectedly large growth in the trade deficit given that the value of trade flows declined 15% overall (down $570 billion) compared to last year because of the global COVID-19 crisis.

“The overall 2020 deficit is on track to be larger than in 2016,” said Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch division...

Public Citizen’s analysis of the new U.S. Census Bureau trade data also showed:

• The eight-month 2020 deficit in manufactured goods is 12% higher than in 2016....
• The China trade-in-goods deficit is down relative to 2016, but there is a “trade diversion” effect of imports increasing from other countries.
• The 2020 eight-month trade in goods deficit with China of $194 billion is 20% smaller compared to 2016, when it was $244 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars for the January to August period. The China deficit is down more than 17% in inflation-adjusted terms from 2019, when it was $236 billion in the first eight months.
• In inflation-adjusted dollars, the goods trade deficit with the rest of the world (excluding China) increased from $365.7 billion to $385.3 billion in the first eight months of 2020 relative to the same period in 2019, a more than 5% rise...
  — Current Trade Deficit Is 22% Higher Than Same Period in 2016

Here is a related article on U.S. use (and abuse) of the SWIFT banking system and sanctions in international trade, and the threat of international U.S.-China trade “decoupling.”

How the US uses the dollar payments system to impose sanctions on a global scale

This what some people call 'winning'

 

[theHawk]

October 6, 2020

These statistics were compiled by Public Citizen’s Global Watch from recent official government data. “Public Citizen” is a long-time liberal public interest group that has fought globalizing corporations and most international trade agreements, including NAFTA & the TPP. Though even official government statistics can be fudged, it is clear there has been no reduction but a significant INCREASE in balance of payments deficits since Trump’s election in 2016. This despite protectionist tariffs, new intense financial sanctions backed by use of the SWIFT banking payment system, and the “Stage One Trade Treaty” with China, which mandated China purchase more U.S. agricultural products (at the expense of other producers).

The Democrats have proposed further federal government “Buy American” policies. However it is very questionable whether ANYTHING can really improve the U.S. trade situation given the bipartisan consensus to spend more than we earn, and our growing addiction to Federal Reserve easy credit and fiat money, which under present conditions and in accord with prevailing ideology only encourages speculative money manipulation. U.S. dollar domination of world trade also tends to create trade deficits (see: Triffin dilemma - Wikipedia ). Bipartisan policies to spend a great part of our national wealth on military expenditures, rather than increasing investments and efficiency of our economy, also hurts our real competiveness and can only lead to a new arms race that endangers our very existence.

Finally, the Covid-19 pandemic will likely continue to hurt the U.S. economy whoever wins the election, at least for the next two or three quarters. Meanwhile, China has fully stopped the spread of Covid and the only new cases there are those imported from abroad. Its factory production is again booming, and its schools all open. The U.S. commodity trade deficit will probably continue to worsen.

Here are excerpts from the Global Watch report:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – An inflation-adjusted analysis of today’s latest Census Bureau trade data ... shows that the $424.8 billion trade deficit in the first eight months of 2020 is more than 22% higher than the $347 billion deficit during the same period in 2016.

The August 2020 monthly deficit of $67 billion is also the largest monthly deficit since August 2006, an unexpectedly large growth in the trade deficit given that the value of trade flows declined 15% overall (down $570 billion) compared to last year because of the global COVID-19 crisis.

“The overall 2020 deficit is on track to be larger than in 2016,” said Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch division...

Public Citizen’s analysis of the new U.S. Census Bureau trade data also showed:

• The eight-month 2020 deficit in manufactured goods is 12% higher than in 2016....
• The China trade-in-goods deficit is down relative to 2016, but there is a “trade diversion” effect of imports increasing from other countries.
• The 2020 eight-month trade in goods deficit with China of $194 billion is 20% smaller compared to 2016, when it was $244 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars for the January to August period. The China deficit is down more than 17% in inflation-adjusted terms from 2019, when it was $236 billion in the first eight months.
• In inflation-adjusted dollars, the goods trade deficit with the rest of the world (excluding China) increased from $365.7 billion to $385.3 billion in the first eight months of 2020 relative to the same period in 2019, a more than 5% rise...
  — Current Trade Deficit Is 22% Higher Than Same Period in 2016

Here is a related article on U.S. use (and abuse) of the SWIFT banking system and sanctions in international trade, and the threat of international U.S.-China trade “decoupling.”

How the US uses the dollar payments system to impose sanctions on a global scale

That’s because the economy has been so much better over the last four years that Americans can buy more.

The trade deficit with China is down 20%, that’s great news!

 

[task0778]

The US economy basically shut down quite a bit since Jan 2020, so of course the trade deficit is going to be higher, cuz we ain't exporting as much out, and are importing more stuff in cuz we ain't making it ourselves. BFD. The larger problem is the lockdowns, keeping people from going back to work and earning a paycheck.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The US economy basically shut down quite a bit since Jan 2020, so of course the trade deficit is going to be higher, cuz we ain't exporting as much out, and are importing more stuff in cuz we ain't making it ourselves. BFD. The larger problem is the lockdowns, keeping people from going back to work and earning a paycheck.

This is an important and valid point, and it surely is effecting the most recent statistics, but in complex and perhaps surprising ways. The Chinese economy has certainly recovered quicker than the U.S. economy will, a result of it being the only major economy to have ended domestic transmission of Covid-19 through tracing and flexible quarantine measures & strict social distancing.

In 2008 and earlier during the Asian financial crisis it was China that actually led the way keeping the world economy on track and able to recover. Many U.S. companies now desperately need the Chinese market to maintain real profits. Statistics show an eight month U.S. trade deficit increase of 5% relative to other non-Chinese trading countries which were also effected by Covid, and an overall exacerbation of the trade deficit despite Chinese helping the U.S. by increasing purchases it would not wish to have made without the “Stage One“ Trade Agreement. In short, the situation is complex and there are also important capital account changes and real investment changes that are also not working out in any helpful way for the U.S.

The argument that industrial protectionism can work for a highly indebted post-industrial service and financial economy like the U.S is dubious at best, and certainly not demonstrated by the tariffs on steel which have actually cost the U.S. jobs. The surest help for the U.S. economy will come from domestic infrastructure upgrades, skills upgrading, investments in robotics, efficiency, research, etc.

Then there are arbitrary executive measures like closing TikTok or WeChat which (even if the courts finally accept them) mostly would have little or no economic significance, yet discredit the U.S. as an open economy and infuriate the Chinese leadership and people. TikTok? Please! The same is true for many other “hardball” measures like seeking to arrest and extradite to the U.S. HuaWei’s CFO (and its founder’s daughter) in Canada. China can play this game as well. The U.S. simply cannot close down the Chinese economy or force progressive change from abroad. Playing tough guy just increases the Chinese national determination to develop high tech independence in every field. Of course threatening or implementing restrictions, e.g. on WeChat or HuaHui (5G) could be presented quietly as part of a negotiating strategy to open specific parts of the Chinese economy and internet, but that is not what is happening at present. The U.S. talks big and ruffles feathers, but has produced little.

Cold War and economic decoupling will devastate the U.S. economy as much or more than the Chinese economy, and may very well lead to war. In any case the Chinese people are used to hard times and can probably handle the pressure better than we can.

 

[candycorn]

October 6, 2020

These statistics were compiled by Public Citizen’s Global Watch from recent official government data. “Public Citizen” is a long-time liberal public interest group that has fought globalizing corporations and most international trade agreements, including NAFTA & the TPP. Though even official government statistics can be fudged, it is clear there has been no reduction but a significant INCREASE in balance of payments deficits since Trump’s election in 2016. This despite protectionist tariffs, new intense financial sanctions backed by use of the SWIFT banking payment system, and the “Stage One Trade Treaty” with China, which mandated China purchase more U.S. agricultural products (at the expense of other producers).

The Democrats have proposed further federal government “Buy American” policies. However it is very questionable whether ANYTHING can really improve the U.S. trade situation given the bipartisan consensus to spend more than we earn, and our growing addiction to Federal Reserve easy credit and fiat money, which under present conditions and in accord with prevailing ideology only encourages speculative money manipulation. U.S. dollar domination of world trade also tends to create trade deficits (see: Triffin dilemma - Wikipedia ). Bipartisan policies to spend a great part of our national wealth on military expenditures, rather than increasing investments and efficiency of our economy, also hurts our real competiveness and can only lead to a new arms race that endangers our very existence.

Finally, the Covid-19 pandemic will likely continue to hurt the U.S. economy whoever wins the election, at least for the next two or three quarters. Meanwhile, China has fully stopped the spread of Covid and the only new cases there are those imported from abroad. Its factory production is again booming, and its schools all open. The U.S. commodity trade deficit will probably continue to worsen.

Here are excerpts from the Global Watch report:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – An inflation-adjusted analysis of today’s latest Census Bureau trade data ... shows that the $424.8 billion trade deficit in the first eight months of 2020 is more than 22% higher than the $347 billion deficit during the same period in 2016.

The August 2020 monthly deficit of $67 billion is also the largest monthly deficit since August 2006, an unexpectedly large growth in the trade deficit given that the value of trade flows declined 15% overall (down $570 billion) compared to last year because of the global COVID-19 crisis.

“The overall 2020 deficit is on track to be larger than in 2016,” said Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch division...

Public Citizen’s analysis of the new U.S. Census Bureau trade data also showed:

• The eight-month 2020 deficit in manufactured goods is 12% higher than in 2016....
• The China trade-in-goods deficit is down relative to 2016, but there is a “trade diversion” effect of imports increasing from other countries.
• The 2020 eight-month trade in goods deficit with China of $194 billion is 20% smaller compared to 2016, when it was $244 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars for the January to August period. The China deficit is down more than 17% in inflation-adjusted terms from 2019, when it was $236 billion in the first eight months.
• In inflation-adjusted dollars, the goods trade deficit with the rest of the world (excluding China) increased from $365.7 billion to $385.3 billion in the first eight months of 2020 relative to the same period in 2019, a more than 5% rise...
  — Current Trade Deficit Is 22% Higher Than Same Period in 2016

Here is a related article on U.S. use (and abuse) of the SWIFT banking system and sanctions in international trade, and the threat of international U.S.-China trade “decoupling.”

How the US uses the dollar payments system to impose sanctions on a global scale

We're funding it. Not the government. Us. I'm looking at my desk right now. Only the bag of Goldfish crackers was made in the USA--Norwalk CT.
Computer, printer, scanner, keyboard, mouse, monitor...made over seas. Multi-line phone...overseas. I can't see where the desk itself was made but I'm betting overseas. Tupperware container and flatware. Mexico.

Until consumers stop consuming these products, it won't change.

What to do? Here is an idea just off the top of my head.

Set up accounts like banks have for social security. You log on using your number. It has the day you become eligible, the amount you can expect to get, etc...
On this website, you have another account. Lets call it the MIA--pronounced Mee-Ah-- account...Made in America. Each month during periods specified by Congress, monies are allocated to those accounts. Lets call it $62.50 a month. About $750 a year or so. Make it whatever you want.

During which, at the same time, the Dept of Agriculture along with the Dept of Commerce sets up a program--a partnership whereby both online and in brick and mortar stores feature sections of their website or sections of their store for the MIA goods only. Farmer surpluses, clothing, radios, after-market auto parts, etc... American made goods that are turly Ameican made; not 25% American made, not goods made in Mexico but packaged here, etc.. AMERICAN MADE GOODS. If you want to put a percentage on it, fine...make it 90+ percent though. American firms hiring Americans to produce goods that are made in America...using American made raw materials.

It sets up a sub-economy. The program would be huge but hey, it's a time for bold measures in my mind. Each American getting $750.00 a year (again adjust it any way you want). Its what some people pay in taxes an entire year. LOL. Its a $225 Billion dollar industry (750 X 300M Americans) that the government could create in a very short amount of time. On the retail end, there would probably not be a large hiring increase. On the manufacturing end, you'd see a pretty good development. I'm sure Hitachi and Toshiba and Mawae or whatever it is called would set up a dummy corp to give them an american presence and take part. Whatever. As long as they hire Americans to make the goods, that's great. As long as they are paying utilities to American providers like ConEd, PG&E, Spectrum, etc.. Thats great. As long as they are using American grown okra, wheat, soybeans, milk, cheese, etc... Thats great. As long as they are using minerals taken out of the mines in Kentucky, Tennessee, or Wyoming. Thats great. As long as they are using Texas beef, Arkansas chickens, or Washington State apples...that's great.

On the downside, the products won't be as affordable as the cheap crap made overseas. So you'll still have people going to Wal*Mart and buying the foreign made goods. Nothing is going to stop that in a capitalist society. But what you will have is a segment of the economy that is just set up for American commerce.

 

[RodISHI]

The US economy basically shut down quite a bit since Jan 2020, so of course the trade deficit is going to be higher, cuz we ain't exporting as much out, and are importing more stuff in cuz we ain't making it ourselves. BFD. The larger problem is the lockdowns, keeping people from going back to work and earning a paycheck.

This is an important and valid point, and it surely is effecting the most recent statistics, but in complex and perhaps surprising ways. The Chinese economy has certainly recovered quicker than the U.S. economy will, a result of it being the only major economy to have ended domestic transmission of Covid-19 through tracing and flexible quarantine measures & strict social distancing.

In 2008 and earlier during the Asian financial crisis it was China that actually led the way keeping the world economy on track and able to recover. Many U.S. companies now desperately need the Chinese market to maintain real profits. Statistics show an eight month U.S. trade deficit increase of 5% relative to other non-Chinese trading countries which were also effected by Covid, and an overall exacerbation of the trade deficit despite Chinese helping the U.S. by increasing purchases it would not wish to have made without the “Stage One“ Trade Agreement. In short, the situation is complex and there are also important capital account changes and real investment changes that are also not working out in any helpful way for the U.S.

The argument that industrial protectionism can work for a highly indebted post-industrial service and financial economy like the U.S is dubious at best, and certainly not demonstrated by the tariffs on steel which have actually cost the U.S. jobs. The surest help for the U.S. economy will come from domestic infrastructure upgrades, skills upgrading, investments in robotics, efficiency, research, etc.

Then there are arbitrary executive measures like closing TikTok or WeChat which (even if the courts finally accept them) mostly would have little or no economic significance, yet discredit the U.S. as an open economy and infuriate the Chinese leadership and people. TikTok? Please! The same is true for many other “hardball” measures like seeking to arrest and extradite to the U.S. HuaWei’s CFO (and its founder’s daughter) in Canada. China can play this game as well. The U.S. simply cannot close down the Chinese economy or force progressive change from abroad. Playing tough guy just increases the Chinese national determination to develop high tech independence in every field. Of course threatening or implementing restrictions, e.g. on WeChat or HuaHui (5G) could be presented quietly as part of a negotiating strategy to open specific parts of the Chinese economy and internet, but that is not what is happening at present. The U.S. talks big and ruffles feathers, but has produced little.

Cold War and economic decoupling will devastate the U.S. economy as much or more than the Chinese economy, and may very well lead to war. In any case the Chinese people are used to hard times and can probably handle the pressure better than we can.

We don't board people up in their homes here in the USA, nor do we enslave people to work in factories because of their religious or political beliefs. The whole world should be banning China's products for what they do.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The argument that industrial protectionism can work for a highly indebted post-industrial service and financial economy like the U.S is dubious at best, and certainly not demonstrated by the tariffs on steel which have actually cost the U.S. jobs.

Here is a new Reuter’s article that documents this point:
Trump steel tariffs bring job losses to swing state Michigan

 

[Correll]

• The China trade-in-goods deficit is down relative to 2016, but there is a “trade diversion” effect of imports increasing from other countries.
• The 2020 eight-month trade in goods deficit with China of $194 billion is 20% smaller compared to 2016, when it was $244 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars for the January to August period. The China deficit is down more than 17% in inflation-adjusted terms from 2019, when it was $236 billion in the first eight months.

Encouraging. Even if the only result is more growth in other countries and less in China, that's a win for US.


And it proves the concept.


now we just need to turn up; the volume, to eleven.