COVID-19: Facts vs. Panic

[mikegriffith1]

Do you have a point?

I had this thing last year. No biggie

Maybe you did and probably you didn't

But the fact remains that 20% of those who get it require hospitalization...and a big chunk of those people die

A "big chunk of those people die"? Then it's amazing that the U.S. COVID-19 death rates are so low. According to the latest CDC report, published a few days ago, here are the COVID-19 death rates by age group in the U.S.
:
85-plus: 10.4%
75-84: 4.3%
65-74: 2.7%
55-64: 1.4%
45-54: 0.5%
20-24: 0.1%
0-19: 0.0 (no deaths)

The WHO has repeatedly said that their data indicate that about 80% of corona cases are mild and that only about 6% of cases require emergency care.

Our death rates are substantially lower than China's, and their rates are not that high anyway, except for people over 80. Do you know what it means when you have a 0.5% chance of dying from the virus--which is the U.S. death rate for ages 45-54? 0.5 is 0.005, or 5 out of 1,000. Those are very, very small odds.

 

[Pogo]

Do you have a point?

I had this thing last year. No biggie

Maybe you did and probably you didn't

But the fact remains that 20% of those who get it require hospitalization...and a big chunk of those people die

A "big chunk of those people die"? Then it's amazing that the U.S. COVID-19 death rates are so low. According to the latest CDC report, published a few days ago, here are the COVID-19 death rates by age group in the U.S.
:
85-plus: 10.4%
75-84: 4.3%
65-74: 2.7%
55-64: 1.4%
45-54: 0.5%
20-24: 0.1%
0-19: 0.0 (no deaths)

The WHO has repeatedly said that their data indicate that about 80% of corona cases are mild and that only about 6% of cases require emergency care.

Our death rates are substantially lower than China's, and their rates are not that high anyway, except for people over 80. Do you know what it means when you have a 0.5% chance of dying from the virus--which is the U.S. death rate for ages 45-54? 0.5 is 0.005, or 5 out of 1,000. Those are very, very small odds.

Nnnnnnnnnnno. Actually our current death rate is 64% whereas China's is 4%. Don't know where you're getting these figures but they're obviously nowhere near.

CLOSED CASES
343
Cases which had an outcome:
125 (36%)
Recovered / Discharged

218 (64%)
Deaths


Not that we have the temporal perspective yet to even SET such rates when 98% of the infections aren't resolved yet.

 

[mikegriffith1]

Even in the face of clear facts to the contrary, the liberals here continue to parrot the talking point that COVID-19 is more dangerous than any virus in recent history; that drastic measures are necessary to keep hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of Americans from dying; that Trump hasn't taken the virus seriously enough, blah, blah, blah. Well, eventually, sooner or later, the smoke is going to clear, and the cold, hard statistics will show, as they are already showing, that the liberal fear-mongering on this issue was wholly unjustified and extremely harmful to our economy and to millions of average Americans.

The cold, hard statistics are already showing that the death rate for most age groups is very, very, very small; that even for the most vulnerable age group, the risk is below 20%; and that your chances of catching the virus even if you have close contact with a carrier are no more than 15%, unless you have a substantially weakened immune system. Heck, we know that President Trump came into close contact--shook hands and posed for photos with--two people who had the virus, and yet he didn't catch it--and he's over 70. Gee, ain't that interesting?

 

[Osiris-ODS]

Do you have a point?

I had this thing last year. No biggie

Maybe you did and probably you didn't

But the fact remains that 20% of those who get it require hospitalization...and a big chunk of those people die

A big chunk? 1.4% of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have resulted in death. 1.4% -- and that rate continues falling as more cases are confirmed. That's hardly a "big chunk." And most all of those deaths were very old people and people with immuno compromising conditions.

 

[mikegriffith1]

Per today's WHO situation report (3/20/20), the quality of a nation's healthcare system seems to have an impact on the death rate from COVID-19:

Israel: 0.0% (0 deaths/529 cases)
Germany: 0.182% (20 deaths/20999 cases)
Sweden: 0.213% (3 deaths/1423 cases)
Switzerland: 0.86% (33 deaths/3863 cases)

Canada: 1.23% (9 deaths/736 cases)
U.S.: 1.44% (150 deaths/10442 cases)​

France: 3.421% (372/10877)
Iran: 6.98% (1284 deaths/18407 cases)
Italy: 8.31% (3407 deaths/41035 cases)

Germany's death rate of 0.182% equals 0.00182 or 1.82 out of every 1,000, or a 99.818% of *not* dying.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0320-sitrep-60-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=8894045a_2

 

[Pogo]

Do you have a point?

I had this thing last year. No biggie

Maybe you did and probably you didn't

But the fact remains that 20% of those who get it require hospitalization...and a big chunk of those people die

A big chunk? 1.4% of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have resulted in death. 1.4% -- and that rate continues falling as more cases are confirmed. That's hardly a "big chunk." And most all of those deaths were very old people and people with immuno compromising conditions.

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL. What we know is that AT THIS POINT, 64% --- not 1.4, 64 --- of the cases that had a resolution, DIED.

CLOSED CASES
404
Cases which had an outcome:
147 (36%) Recovered / Discharged

257 (64%) Died



You can't declare some nineteen thousand cases, which are currently active, as "recovered" when they're not.

I just explained all this FOUR POSTS AGO. Note that the number totals have changed since then but the percentage is the same.

 

[Osiris-ODS]

Do you have a point?

I had this thing last year. No biggie

Maybe you did and probably you didn't

But the fact remains that 20% of those who get it require hospitalization...and a big chunk of those people die

A big chunk? 1.4% of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have resulted in death. 1.4% -- and that rate continues falling as more cases are confirmed. That's hardly a "big chunk." And most all of those deaths were very old people and people with immuno compromising conditions.

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL. What we know is that AT THIS POINT, 64% --- not 1.4, 64 --- of the cases that had a resolution, DIED.

CLOSED CASES
404
Cases which had an outcome:
147 (36%) Recovered / Discharged

257 (64%) Died



You can't declare some nineteen thousand cases, which are currently active, as "recovered" when they're not.

I just explained all this FOUR POSTS AGO. Note that the number totals have changed since then but the percentage is the same.

Come on Pogo. That 64% statistic is more flawed and misleading than the one you're criticizing me for. I'm not sure what your source is for that "closed case" data, but regardless, it should seem obvious that the high comparative death rate in the referenced 404 "closed cases" is a direct function of "death" being a dispositive factor that closed those 257 cases, whereas in all of the non-death cases, the entity processing that data has certain criteria for closing an open case (possibly a duration or time, or symptomology benchmarks, or laboratory testing results, and/or even review by someone with authority to close a case ... all of which tend to lag clinical data to varying degrees, and are not representative of real world information).

To that end, it is beyond speculation that more than 147 people out of the ~19,000 confirmed U.S. cases have either fully or partially recovered to the extent that they are not at risk of mortality from the symptoms of the virus. Thus, to suggest that the mortality rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. is anything close to 64% based on a snapshot of processed data without real-world clinical context is just silly. Care to share the source so I can take a look at the data processing criteria?

 

[mikegriffith1]

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL.

Uh, yes, we do. The WHO and the CDC have been keeping stats on the corona virus for nearly four months now. Your very narrowly selected stats ignore the big picture. They also ignore the fact that the overwhelming majority of deaths are occurring among the very elderly and among those with substantial preexisting health issues. The average death rate among people 65 and under who are in average health ranges from 0.01% to around 4.8%, with the rate dropping dramatically as you go down in age.

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL. What we know is that AT THIS POINT, 64% --- not 1.4, 64 --- of the cases that had a resolution, DIED.

AGAIN, that is HOGWASH. Both the WHO and the CDC are reporting that about 80% of COVID-19 cases involve only mild or moderate symptoms, and this isn't counting the people who had no symptoms and had no idea they even had the virus.

Furthermore, the CDC, just three days ago, released a report on the hospitalization rates for COVID-19 cases by age group. It shows that the death rate for hospitalized COVID-19 people, or patients, ages 20-64 ranges between 0.1% and 2.6%. The death rate for patients ages 0-19 is--take a guess--ZERO, because we still have not had any deaths in that age group. The death rate for patients ages 65-84 ranges from 2.7% to 10.5%. And the death rate rises substantially for patients 85 and older: 10.4% to 27.3%.

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

Per the CDC report, guess what percentage of COVID-19 cases have resulted in hospitalization, even including ages 65 and up? 23.454%. Guess what the hospitalization rate drops to if you exclude ages 65 and up? 7.31%.

And, AGAIN, the WHO has reported that in China only 5-10% of the people who lived or worked with an infected person caught the virus. Perhaps this explains why President had close contact with two people who were infected but did not catch the virus, and he's over 70.

 

[mikegriffith1]

Now here are some interesting stats from a CDC report issued within the last 72 hours. We've talked a lot about the extremely low death rates for COVID-19. The CDC report addresses the rates of hospitalization, the types of hospitalization, and the death rates among hospitalized COVID-19 cases. Per the report's figures, if you're between the ages of 0 and 64 and you catch COVID-19, your chance of ending up in the hospital ranges between 1.178% and 7.31%; and if you are in this age group and are hospitalized, your chance of requiring intensive care ranges from 0.0% to 11.2%--again, keeping in mind that you only have a 1.178% to 7.31% chance of ending up in the hospital in the first place. The total raw numbers, not broken down by age group, are 2,449 hospitalizations out of the 10,442 U.S. cases.

So what are the death rates among hospitalized COVID-19 cases? If you're between the ages of 0-19 and are hospitalized with COVID-19, per the CDC report, your chance of dying is ZERO. Yes, ZERO. In China, the overall death rate among ages 0-19 ranges from 0.01% to 0.02%, which is an incredibly small percentage--0.02% equals 2 out of 10,000, and they haven't even had 10,000 cases in China yet.

What if you are 20-44 and are hospitalized because of COVID-19? Your chance of dying, per the CDC report, is 0.1% to 0.2%, which is well below 1%. A 0.2% chance of dying means you have a 99.98% chance of not dying.

If you are 45-54 and are hospitalized with COVID-19, your chance of dying, per the CDC report, is 0.5% to 0.8%, still under 1%, and which means you have, at worst, a 99.2% chance of not dying.

For ages 55 and up, the death rates for hospitalized cases, predictably, go up but are still nowhere near armageddon territory. Here are the death rates, per the CDC report, for hospitalized COVID-19 cases by age group for 55 and up:

55-64: 1.4% to 2.6%
65-74: 2.7% to 4.9%
75-84: 4.3% to 10.5%
85-99: 10.4% to 27.3%

If you are 75 or older and you catch COVID-19, your chance of ending up in the hospital, per the CDC report's numbers, is 3.392% on average. This is lower than the top end of the average hospitalization rate for ages 64 and below, probably because many people 75 and up with the virus do not go to a hospital for various reasons--lack of transportation, no desire to go, no realization that they have the virus. So let us assume, for the sake of argument, that the hospitalization rate for 75 and older is five times higher than the CDC numbers indicate: that would give us a hospitalization rate of 17% for that age group, which would mean that 83% of this group do not require hospitalization for the virus.

The point of all this is to show that even if you catch the virus and are under 75, not only do you have a very small or extremely small chance of dying from it but you have a very small chance of even needing to go to the hospital because of it, and that if you do need to be hospitalized, your chances of needing intensive care are very low--no more than 12%, even rounding up.

Here is the CDC report: Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

 

[Pogo]

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL.

Uh, yes, we do. The WHO and the CDC have been keeping stats on the corona virus for nearly four months now. Your very narrowly selected stats ignore the big picture. They also ignore the fact that the overwhelming majority of deaths are occurring among the very elderly and among those with substantial preexisting health issues. The average death rate among people 65 and under who are in average health ranges from 0.01% to around 4.8%, with the rate dropping dramatically as you go down in age.

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL. What we know is that AT THIS POINT, 64% --- not 1.4, 64 --- of the cases that had a resolution, DIED.

AGAIN, that is HOGWASH. Both the WHO and the CDC are reporting that about 80% of COVID-19 cases involve only mild or moderate symptoms, and this isn't counting the people who had no symptoms and had no idea they even had the virus.

Furthermore, the CDC, just three days ago, released a report on the hospitalization rates for COVID-19 cases by age group. It shows that the death rate for hospitalized COVID-19 people, or patients, ages 20-64 ranges between 0.1% and 2.6%. The death rate for patients ages 0-19 is--take a guess--ZERO, because we still have not had any deaths in that age group. The death rate for patients ages 65-84 ranges from 2.7% to 10.5%. And the death rate rises substantially for patients 85 and older: 10.4% to 27.3%.

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

Per the CDC report, guess what percentage of COVID-19 cases have resulted in hospitalization, even including ages 65 and up? 23.454%. Guess what the hospitalization rate drops to if you exclude ages 65 and up? 7.31%.

And, AGAIN, the WHO has reported that in China only 5-10% of the people who lived or worked with an infected person caught the virus. Perhaps this explains why President had close contact with two people who were infected but did not catch the virus, and he's over 70.

WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. You CANNOT --- Can Not --- take a known fixed number (deaths) and call it a percentage of an UNknown FLUID number (active cases). That gives you a random number that has no meaning..

This ain't rocket surgery. We *DO NOT KNOW* the end results of active cases which have not concluded in an end result, therefore it's INVALID to take a segment that HAS concluded, that we DO know, and declare the latter "different" from the unresolved ones, that we DON'T.

Don't know why this is such a stumbling block, let's try an analogy.

Let's say a group of ten people set out to climb Mount Kilimanjaro. Three of them die in the process, the other seven return. We can say from that that their mortality rate was 30%. Easy.

But let's say instead that three of them are found dead and the other seven are still out there somewhere, whereabouts unknown. Now we CANNOT say their mortality rate is 30%. Because we DON'T KNOW THAT YET.

That's what you're trying to do here, and it's invalid. You can't just declare by personal fiat that 100% of all active cases will recover, even though an average of 11% so far did not.

ADD to that yet another variable, which is time. NOT ALL of the infected cases, including the resolved ones, were infected at the same time, obviously. Therefore they've all had different time scales to reach that resolution. And yet you're trying to treat them as all equal. THEY ARE NOT. You don't even have and apples-and-oranges here; you have apples and carburetors.

 

[Pogo]

Do you have a point?

I had this thing last year. No biggie

Maybe you did and probably you didn't

But the fact remains that 20% of those who get it require hospitalization...and a big chunk of those people die

A big chunk? 1.4% of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have resulted in death. 1.4% -- and that rate continues falling as more cases are confirmed. That's hardly a "big chunk." And most all of those deaths were very old people and people with immuno compromising conditions.

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL. What we know is that AT THIS POINT, 64% --- not 1.4, 64 --- of the cases that had a resolution, DIED.

CLOSED CASES
404
Cases which had an outcome:
147 (36%) Recovered / Discharged

257 (64%) Died



You can't declare some nineteen thousand cases, which are currently active, as "recovered" when they're not.

I just explained all this FOUR POSTS AGO. Note that the number totals have changed since then but the percentage is the same.

Come on Pogo. That 64% statistic is more flawed and misleading than the one you're criticizing me for. I'm not sure what your source is for that "closed case" data, but regardless, it should seem obvious that the high comparative death rate in the referenced 404 "closed cases" is a direct function of "death" being a dispositive factor that closed those 257 cases, whereas in all of the non-death cases, the entity processing that data has certain criteria for closing an open case (possibly a duration or time, or symptomology benchmarks, or laboratory testing results, and/or even review by someone with authority to close a case ... all of which tend to lag clinical data to varying degrees, and are not representative of real world information).

To that end, it is beyond speculation that more than 147 people out of the ~19,000 confirmed U.S. cases have either fully or partially recovered to the extent that they are not at risk of mortality from the symptoms of the virus. Thus, to suggest that the mortality rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. is anything close to 64% based on a snapshot of processed data without real-world clinical context is just silly. Care to share the source so I can take a look at the data processing criteria?

I guess I could post this link another seventeen thousand times and some wag would still be howling about "I don't know where you're getting these figures".... AGAIN that's all the cases in the world, listed by country, broken into number infected, number of deaths, number of recovered, number active, number active in critical or serious condition, as well as "NEW" reported cases and "NEW" deaths, in the last 24h period, marked each day at Zulu time (UTC/GMT) which is four hours ahead of Eastern Daylie Time.

WITHIN that page you can click on any major country ("major' in terms of CV spread) and get the stats conveniently summarized, or you can just add it up from the main page. That's what I copied. It compares number of fatal cases with number of recovered cases, because those are the cases that resolved one way or the other. Like with like. You CANNOT compare a known, resolved number (deaths) with an UNknown, unresolved number (active cases). Because SOME NUMBER of those active cases will resolve in death, and SOME OTHER NUMBER of them will resolve in recovery.

Again, said this about 58 times too, that 64% current rate (actually it's now 66%) is not a realistic picture, due simply to not having had enough time for recoveries to catch up, but it *IS* the math. You'll notice on the same chart that other infected countries have recovery numbers that are way ahead of deaths, even Italy. China has at least twenty times as many recovered as dead. And that's because it's had more TIME. So again, when we see that Recovery number start to climb and the Death number hold still, THAT is when we know we're past the worst.

 

[Pogo]

Our number of infections btw has now surpassed 22,000 and is the fourth most in the world, behind Spain, Italy and China.

And this may be more sobering -- our proportion of the national population infected is now 67 people per million. It has jumped more than ten times since we started running these threads. China's proportion of the same statistic is 56,

 

[mikegriffith1]

I watched Dr. Fauci's comments on chloroquine during the press conference today (Saturday). Puzzling and disappointing. He said there was only "anecdotal" evidence that chloroquine worked as a treatment for COVID-19. I just wonder what he means by "anecdotal." France's Ministry of Health has publicly acknowledged Dr. Raoult's test and its results. Is this Dr. Fauci's idea of "anecdotal" evidence?

Because of Dr. Raoult's findings, the French government has authorized a larger test to independently duplicate Dr. Raoult's results. Keep in mind that Dr. Rault is the expert appointed by the French government to find a treatment for the corona virus.

Dr. Fauci's extremely cautious line about chloroquine reminds me of our government's dubious excuses for not allowing Americans direct access to European drugs until those drugs have gone though our long and winding bureaucratic testing and approval process, as if nations like France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, and England are Third World nations that we can't trust to make safe drugs.

 

[mikegriffith1]

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL.

Uh, yes, we do. The WHO and the CDC have been keeping stats on the corona virus for nearly four months now. Your very narrowly selected stats ignore the big picture. They also ignore the fact that the overwhelming majority of deaths are occurring among the very elderly and among those with substantial preexisting health issues. The average death rate among people 65 and under who are in average health ranges from 0.01% to around 4.8%, with the rate dropping dramatically as you go down in age.

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL. What we know is that AT THIS POINT, 64% --- not 1.4, 64 --- of the cases that had a resolution, DIED.

AGAIN, that is HOGWASH. Both the WHO and the CDC are reporting that about 80% of COVID-19 cases involve only mild or moderate symptoms, and this isn't counting the people who had no symptoms and had no idea they even had the virus.

Furthermore, the CDC, just three days ago, released a report on the hospitalization rates for COVID-19 cases by age group. It shows that the death rate for hospitalized COVID-19 people, or patients, ages 20-64 ranges between 0.1% and 2.6%. The death rate for patients ages 0-19 is--take a guess--ZERO, because we still have not had any deaths in that age group. The death rate for patients ages 65-84 ranges from 2.7% to 10.5%. And the death rate rises substantially for patients 85 and older: 10.4% to 27.3%.

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

Per the CDC report, guess what percentage of COVID-19 cases have resulted in hospitalization, even including ages 65 and up? 23.454%. Guess what the hospitalization rate drops to if you exclude ages 65 and up? 7.31%.

And, AGAIN, the WHO has reported that in China only 5-10% of the people who lived or worked with an infected person caught the virus. Perhaps this explains why President had close contact with two people who were infected but did not catch the virus, and he's over 70.

WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. You CANNOT --- Can Not --- take a known fixed number (deaths) and call it a percentage of an UNknown FLUID number (active cases). That gives you a random number that has no meaning..

This ain't rocket surgery. We *DO NOT KNOW* the end results of active cases which have not concluded in an end result, therefore it's INVALID to take a segment that HAS concluded, that we DO know, and declare the latter "different" from the unresolved ones, that we DON'T.

Don't know why this is such a stumbling block, let's try an analogy.

Let's say a group of ten people set out to climb Mount Kilimanjaro. Three of them die in the process, the other seven return. We can say from that that their mortality rate was 30%. Easy.

But let's say instead that three of them are found dead and the other seven are still out there somewhere, whereabouts unknown. Now we CANNOT say their mortality rate is 30%. Because we DON'T KNOW THAT YET.

That's what you're trying to do here, and it's invalid. You can't just declare by personal fiat that 100% of all active cases will recover, even though an average of 11% so far did not.

ADD to that yet another variable, which is time. NOT ALL of the infected cases, including the resolved ones, were infected at the same time, obviously. Therefore they've all had different time scales to reach that resolution. And yet you're trying to treat them as all equal. THEY ARE NOT. You don't even have and apples-and-oranges here; you have apples and carburetors.

NONSENSE. EVASIVE NONSENSE. Even Captain Obvious would be ashamed of you.

It is perfectly valid to simply state the fact that x.x% of people have died from the virus, or that x.x% of people in a given age group have died from the virus. Everybody understands--everybody except you, apparently--that those percentages are the rates we have thus far, as of the date they were recorded, and are not the final rates. I have already mentioned the obvious fact that the percentages can change as time passes. That does not change the fact that the percentages are valid up to the point in time they were recorded. So in your mind just add "thus far" when you see me cite percentage statistics. That's why I usually stipulate that the percentages I'm giving come from this or that report as of this or that date. You should have already known this, should have already taken this as a given.

The death rates below are from the data from yesterday's World Health Organization (WHO) situation report (3/22/20). I selected these countries because some of these nations have taken far less drastic measures than we are taking, and yet their death rates are lower than the U.S. rate. Rather than banning even small gatherings and/or forcing a huge chunk of their economy to shut down and/or closing all schools for months, these nations are responding in a more science-driven, fact-driven manner and are focusing on testing and tracking down transmission chains and warning the elderly to avoid contact with people. For example, Sweden's elementary schools remain open. About one-third of Finland's elementary schools remain open; early childhood education classes remain available; and in-person teaching is allowed if deemed necessary for completion of studies. South Korea's universities have resumed classes after a two-week delay, and face-to-face classes are left to the discretion of each college. discretion of each school. Iceland's elementary schools remain open, with the stipulation that classes can have no more than 20 students each. Germany's ban on public gatherings applies only to gatherings of 1,000 people or more.

Israel: 0.114% (1 death/883 cases)
Finland: 0.192% (1 death/521 cases)
Iceland: 0.22% (1 death/473 cases)
Austria: 0.265% (8 deaths/3,024 cases)
Germany: 0.313% (67 deaths/21,463 cases)
Norway: 0.368% (7 deaths/1,926 cases)
Switzerland: 0.922% (56 deaths/6,077 cases)
South Korea: 1.17% (104 deaths/8,897 cases)
Sweden: 1.15% (20 deaths/1746 cases)
U.S.: 1.321% (201 deaths/15,219 cases)

Just to put these percentages into perspective, 0.192%, for example, is well below 1%, or less than 1 out of 100, and 1.321% is 1.321 out of 100, or 13.21 out of 1,000, and means that you have a 98.769% chance of not dying.

 

[Snouter]

Pogo and other crazy democrats are parroting the insane, fear mongering DNC/MSM talking points. Very sad, but not surprising.

 

[mikegriffith1]

Pogo and other crazy democrats are parroting the insane, fear mongering DNC/MSM talking points. Very sad, but not surprising.

Yeah, and he's making the absurd argument that all the WHO and CDC stats are worthless and meaningless until we know every conceivable factor related to the virus, when he surely knows that even with the common flu we don't have that level of information in all cases. It's just ridiculous. He doesn't like the stats because they debunk his fear-mongering.

 

[Pogo]

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL.

Uh, yes, we do. The WHO and the CDC have been keeping stats on the corona virus for nearly four months now. Your very narrowly selected stats ignore the big picture. They also ignore the fact that the overwhelming majority of deaths are occurring among the very elderly and among those with substantial preexisting health issues. The average death rate among people 65 and under who are in average health ranges from 0.01% to around 4.8%, with the rate dropping dramatically as you go down in age.

AGAIN --- we don't know that percentage yet AT ALL. What we know is that AT THIS POINT, 64% --- not 1.4, 64 --- of the cases that had a resolution, DIED.

AGAIN, that is HOGWASH. Both the WHO and the CDC are reporting that about 80% of COVID-19 cases involve only mild or moderate symptoms, and this isn't counting the people who had no symptoms and had no idea they even had the virus.

Furthermore, the CDC, just three days ago, released a report on the hospitalization rates for COVID-19 cases by age group. It shows that the death rate for hospitalized COVID-19 people, or patients, ages 20-64 ranges between 0.1% and 2.6%. The death rate for patients ages 0-19 is--take a guess--ZERO, because we still have not had any deaths in that age group. The death rate for patients ages 65-84 ranges from 2.7% to 10.5%. And the death rate rises substantially for patients 85 and older: 10.4% to 27.3%.

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

Per the CDC report, guess what percentage of COVID-19 cases have resulted in hospitalization, even including ages 65 and up? 23.454%. Guess what the hospitalization rate drops to if you exclude ages 65 and up? 7.31%.

And, AGAIN, the WHO has reported that in China only 5-10% of the people who lived or worked with an infected person caught the virus. Perhaps this explains why President had close contact with two people who were infected but did not catch the virus, and he's over 70.

WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. You CANNOT --- Can Not --- take a known fixed number (deaths) and call it a percentage of an UNknown FLUID number (active cases). That gives you a random number that has no meaning..

This ain't rocket surgery. We *DO NOT KNOW* the end results of active cases which have not concluded in an end result, therefore it's INVALID to take a segment that HAS concluded, that we DO know, and declare the latter "different" from the unresolved ones, that we DON'T.

Don't know why this is such a stumbling block, let's try an analogy.

Let's say a group of ten people set out to climb Mount Kilimanjaro. Three of them die in the process, the other seven return. We can say from that that their mortality rate was 30%. Easy.

But let's say instead that three of them are found dead and the other seven are still out there somewhere, whereabouts unknown. Now we CANNOT say their mortality rate is 30%. Because we DON'T KNOW THAT YET.

That's what you're trying to do here, and it's invalid. You can't just declare by personal fiat that 100% of all active cases will recover, even though an average of 11% so far did not.

ADD to that yet another variable, which is time. NOT ALL of the infected cases, including the resolved ones, were infected at the same time, obviously. Therefore they've all had different time scales to reach that resolution. And yet you're trying to treat them as all equal. THEY ARE NOT. You don't even have and apples-and-oranges here; you have apples and carburetors.

NONSENSE. EVASIVE NONSENSE. Even Captain Obvious would be ashamed of you.

It is perfectly valid to simply state the fact that x.x% of people have died from the virus, or that x.x% of people in a given age group have died from the virus. Everybody understands--everybody except you, apparently--that those percentages are the rates we have thus far, as of the date they were recorded, and are not the final rates. I have already mentioned the obvious fact that the percentages can change as time passes. That does not change the fact that the percentages are valid up to the point in time they were recorded. So in your mind just add "thus far" when you see me cite percentage statistics. That's why I usually stipulate that the percentages I'm giving come from this or that report as of this or that date. You should have already known this, should have already taken this as a given.

You can stop right there, for here comes the aforementioned Captain Obvious.

IF you do not have the number of resolved cases,
THEN you cannot declare that X% of all cases resolved in death.
BECAUSE you do not know the resolution of any of those which did not.

You're trying to compare a KNOWN (number died) with an UNKNOWN (number who may or may not die). You cannot declare Group A died and Group B did not. Because Group A is the only known number. You must know both --- A/died, B/survived --- to establish that rate. You DO NOT KNOW the B total. Once they fight off the disease and fully recover, THEN you know they're not going to die.

The percentage you establish comparing a Known with an Unknown is by definition meaningless. That is demonstrated by the fact that you need to continuously revise it as Group B resolves. If you have a valid proportion, it doesn't need revision. So when you say it's valid to declare X number of people have died, sure, but a PERCENTAGE is utterly unknown. To establish that percentage you MUST know how many did not. And you don't know that until they resolve.

I don't know how much simpler I can lay this out. Again if ten people go up the mountain and two are found dead but the other 8 are whereabouts-unknown, you CANNOT say the party had a 20% mortality rate. When those 8 return in good shape, THEN you can say they had a 20% mortality rate. It is INVALID to declare that before you know it to be a fact.

 

[Pogo]

Pogo and other crazy democrats are parroting the insane, fear mongering DNC/MSM talking points. Very sad, but not surprising.

Yeah, and he's making the absurd argument that all the WHO and CDC stats are worthless and meaningless until we know every conceivable factor related to the virus, when he surely knows that even with the common flu we don't have that level of information in all cases. It's just ridiculous. He doesn't like the stats because they debunk his fear-mongering.

It's just simple fucking logic. If you're declaring X number of people "did not die", you're LYING because you're declaring they SURVIVED. If they actually did survive, you can count them.

Besides which YES WE DO have that info for common flu or anything else, because those cases have RESOLVED.

 

[Pogo]

Do you have a point?

I had this thing last year. No biggie

Maybe you did and probably you didn't

But the fact remains that 20% of those who get it require hospitalization...and a big chunk of those people die

A "big chunk of those people die"? Then it's amazing that the U.S. COVID-19 death rates are so low. According to the latest CDC report, published a few days ago, here are the COVID-19 death rates by age group in the U.S.
:
85-plus: 10.4%
75-84: 4.3%
65-74: 2.7%
55-64: 1.4%
45-54: 0.5%
20-24: 0.1%
0-19: 0.0 (no deaths)

The WHO has repeatedly said that their data indicate that about 80% of corona cases are mild and that only about 6% of cases require emergency care.

Our death rates are substantially lower than China's, and their rates are not that high anyway, except for people over 80. Do you know what it means when you have a 0.5% chance of dying from the virus--which is the U.S. death rate for ages 45-54? 0.5 is 0.005, or 5 out of 1,000. Those are very, very small odds.

And here you're trying to validate an invalid process by transmogrifying it into "odds". The fact is, as long as there are active cases, which means UNRESOLVED cases, and there are thousands, here, in China, and worldwide ----- you can't establish a survival rate. Because those active cases will eventually resolve one way or the other and until they do, we don't know the numbers.

 

[mikegriffith1]

Here is some encouraging information that is just a few hours old regarding the corona virus:

-- 96% of the active COVID-19 cases are mild.

-- 85% of the closed COVID-19 cases were mild. (In this case, "closed" means recovered or discharged.)

As many scientists have pointed out, the very high rate of mild symptoms among infected persons strongly suggests that the current death rates, which range between 0.0% and 8.0% for the vast majority of people, are actually substantially lower, since many people probably have had the virus but did not know it and thus have not been included in the case numbers. And keep in mind that in many nations, the overall death rate is well below 2.0%.

Source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 420,734 Cases and 18,800 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer