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Coronavirus Simulator - Understanding The Various Strategies

jc456

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Rigby5 said:
Epidemics do not spread exponentially, but geometrically.
Here is the exact quote from the link:

When something doubles, it has a multiplication factor of 2, and when you have a multiplication factor, that is geometric growth.
Exponential growth is when it is growth by an exponent, such as if you have a series where the number is squared for the next, like 1, 2, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, ...
1 times 1 is still 1.

:dunno:
 

Rigby5

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Ivan88, it is true that "1 times 1 is still 1".
But the problem is that only full quarantine can reduce infection down to that level or lower.
Masks and social distancing can not and never have.
You still have growth even when you try to "flatten the curve", so then you accomplish nothing.
You are worse off then before.
All you are then doing is stretching it out over a longer time period, and growth increases over time.

If you are not doing full quarantine, then accelerating infection of those who are least vulnerable, is the best strategy to end it quickly and have the least number of deaths.
 

Rigby5

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Rigby5 said:
Epidemics do not spread exponentially, but geometrically.
Here is the exact quote from the link:

When something doubles, it has a multiplication factor of 2, and when you have a multiplication factor, that is geometric growth.
Exponential growth is when it is growth by an exponent, such as if you have a series where the number is squared for the next, like 1, 2, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, ...
1 times 1 is still 1.


:dunno:

I think what Ivan88 is trying to say is that if you could flatten the reproduction curve down to 1, that is would not be then growing at all, so then would be neither geometric nor exponential.
Problem is just that masks and distancing can't do that.
Only herd immunity or full quarantine can.
 

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