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Coronavirus Simulator - Understanding The Various Strategies

excalibur

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Rigby5

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What's interesting is you don't have to wear a mask if you've been vaccinated -- Walmart, Costco, Starbucks, Publix Say Vaccinated Guests Won't Be Required to Wear Face Masks.

A couple of things. You can still get the virus (lesser chance if you've been vaccinated) like one can still get the flu even after getting the flu shot.

Second, the mask was to prevent you from giving it to others. Others who have it could still give it to you. In terms of protection, it was supposed to prevent getting a worse infection.

Actually vaccinations can't and don't prevent infection at all.
But they do shorten and lessen symptoms, so reduce your chances of spreading it.

Think about it.
Vaccines give immunity, but that just means the ability to quickly identify an infection and destroy it.
It does not mean you don't have to first get infected and only then does the immune system start to kick in.
 

Uncensored2008

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Actually vaccinations can't and don't prevent infection at all.
But they do shorten and lessen symptoms, so reduce your chances of spreading it.

Think about it.
Vaccines give immunity, but that just means the ability to quickly identify an infection and destroy it.
It does not mean you don't have to first get infected and only then does the immune system start to kick in.

Uh, no.

 

excalibur

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Rigby5

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Actually vaccinations can't and don't prevent infection at all.
But they do shorten and lessen symptoms, so reduce your chances of spreading it.

Think about it.
Vaccines give immunity, but that just means the ability to quickly identify an infection and destroy it.
It does not mean you don't have to first get infected and only then does the immune system start to kick in.

Uh, no.


You are totally wrong.
There is absolutely no way any vaccine for covid-19 can prevent infection.
The vaccine is not magic, so the immune system can not possibly even know about a site of infection in the body until it has attacked enough cells so that an exosome warning finally gets detected by the immune system. Only then does the immune system START to produce antibodies to search for and attack the site of infection.
 

jc456

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You are totally wrong.
There is absolutely no way any vaccine for covid-19 can prevent infection.
The vaccine is not magic, so the immune system can not possibly even know about a site of infection in the body until it has attacked enough cells so that an exosome warning finally gets detected by the immune system. Only then does the immune system START to produce antibodies to search for and attack the site of infection.
Exactly
 

froggy

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What's interesting is you don't have to wear a mask if you've been vaccinated -- Walmart, Costco, Starbucks, Publix Say Vaccinated Guests Won't Be Required to Wear Face Masks.

A couple of things. You can still get the virus (lesser chance if you've been vaccinated) like one can still get the flu even after getting the flu shot.

Second, the mask was to prevent you from giving it to others. Others who have it could still give it to you. In terms of protection, it was supposed to prevent getting a worse infection.

Actually vaccinations can't and don't prevent infection at all.
But they do shorten and lessen symptoms, so reduce your chances of spreading it.

Think about it.
Vaccines give immunity, but that just means the ability to quickly identify an infection and destroy it.
It does not mean you don't have to first get infected and only then does the immune system start to kick in.
You sound like a car salesman. Lol
 

Rigby5

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What's interesting is you don't have to wear a mask if you've been vaccinated -- Walmart, Costco, Starbucks, Publix Say Vaccinated Guests Won't Be Required to Wear Face Masks.

A couple of things. You can still get the virus (lesser chance if you've been vaccinated) like one can still get the flu even after getting the flu shot.

Second, the mask was to prevent you from giving it to others. Others who have it could still give it to you. In terms of protection, it was supposed to prevent getting a worse infection.

Actually vaccinations can't and don't prevent infection at all.
But they do shorten and lessen symptoms, so reduce your chances of spreading it.

Think about it.
Vaccines give immunity, but that just means the ability to quickly identify an infection and destroy it.
It does not mean you don't have to first get infected and only then does the immune system start to kick in.
You sound like a car salesman. Lol

It is just a question of knowing the science.
The immune system only detects and eventually destroys infections, but preventing them would require magic.
It is those selling vaccines that are putting out the fake sales pitch.

The inventor of mRNA vaccines, Dr. Robert Malone, really dislikes the mRNA vaccines for covid-19.
He says they added a protein that is identical to one of the corona spikes, in order to get the immune system to trigger on it.
But the problem is they did not attach it well enough, so it comes loose, drifts through the blood stream, and where ever it lands, is where the immune system starts to attack. And if that happens to be in the brain or heart, you are out of luck.
 

percysunshine

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A lot of stuff circulating on the internet right now about the various methods of potential action being taken and considered. Social distancing, shelter in place, total lockdown etc..

This article, which includes some simulators on various methods, makes some sense to me.

"Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Make of it what you will. Thought I would post it, as it helped me to compare some of the various solutions based on a model of the spread of this thing, which seems to be a primary concern at the moment.

And here we are 16 months later, and the only thing flattened was the economy and small businesses.
 

froggy

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Get over your paranoia and just live use a little common sense and don't let fear rule you.
 

FRIKSHUN

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A lot of stuff circulating on the internet right now about the various methods of potential action being taken and considered. Social distancing, shelter in place, total lockdown etc..

This article, which includes some simulators on various methods, makes some sense to me.

"Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Make of it what you will. Thought I would post it, as it helped me to compare some of the various solutions based on a model of the spread of this thing, which seems to be a primary concern at the moment.
How about we get back to the Ivermectin, Hydrochloroquin?
 

Rigby5

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A lot of stuff circulating on the internet right now about the various methods of potential action being taken and considered. Social distancing, shelter in place, total lockdown etc..

This article, which includes some simulators on various methods, makes some sense to me.

"Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Make of it what you will. Thought I would post it, as it helped me to compare some of the various solutions based on a model of the spread of this thing, which seems to be a primary concern at the moment.

Epidemics do not spread exponentially, but geometrically.
Here is the exact quote from the link:
{...
This so-called exponential curve has experts worried. If the number of cases were to continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May.
...}
When something doubles, it has a multiplication factor of 2, and when you have a multiplication factor, that is geometric growth.
Exponential growth is when it is growth by an exponent, such as if you have a series where the number is squared for the next, like 1, 2, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, ...

And you NEVER want to "flatten the curve".
All that does is give the epidemic more time to spread further and wider.
You can NEVER end any epidemic that way, and in fact it prevents one from ending.
It conserves easy hosts.

The 2 main strategies are quick, such as full quarantine and deliberate variolation of the least vulnerable.
 

Rigby5

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There’s pandemic modeling that is forecasting as high as 1.7 million deaths from this virus. There are roughly 4 million deaths in the U.S. per year.

It could have easily been ended last March with fewer than 60k deaths, if only we had NOT "flattened the curve".
 

Rigby5

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As I said on the other thread, I really hope "flattening the curve" is worth the economic devastation that is already here, and will continue.

Stuart Varney just said, and I quote directly, "the economy is collapsing"

77 people in my county with Coronavirus. But five people THAT I KNOW who lost their jobs. Already. Within days.

We're idiots. That's it. Just idiots.

And of course the reality is that "flattening the curve" was not worth it because it accomplished nothing except to give the epidemic more time to spread wider and deeper.
 

Rigby5

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Where did you get the idea it will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at number of infections becomes strong enough to model?

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

"One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause.

"The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

"The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population.

"Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios."

"That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said.

"As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

Wrong.
One reason they are calculating too high is that over half the population is already inherently immune, and are the undiscovered asymptomatic, who test positive for the antibodies, but never noticed any symptoms and were not counted.
Another is that while the death rate of those over 70 is very high, at 2%, the death rate of those under 40 is 400 times lower.
So if we deliberately infect volunteers under 40, in theory we can eliminate the epidemic in 2 weeks, with only 6,000 deaths.
 

Rigby5

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How about we get back to the Ivermectin, Hydrochloroquin?

Also Fluvoxamine.
Any immuno suppressant should be helpful in eliminating deaths, since they are all from an allergic immune system over reaction.
The virus kills no one.
 

Samofvt

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A lot of stuff circulating on the internet right now about the various methods of potential action being taken and considered. Social distancing, shelter in place, total lockdown etc..

This article, which includes some simulators on various methods, makes some sense to me.

"Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Make of it what you will. Thought I would post it, as it helped me to compare some of the various solutions based on a model of the spread of this thing, which seems to be a primary concern at the moment.

Many moons have past since your post. I read these types of articles at the outset, and was fully on board. Much has transpired, or should I say, has NOT TRANSPIRED. I believe it is questionable that the extent of the damage has been as bad as we thought it could be: hospitals have been complaining of over-crowding for decades, and my state's over-flow beds went wholly un-used. The CDC worst case scenario was predicting MILLIONS dead within 6 months.

one take-away from the article you cite: "In real life, of course, people eventually recover. A recovered person can neither transmit simulitis to a healthy person nor become sick again after coming in contact with a sick person." This is basically proven with the current virus (do your own research).

Reconcile this with the fact that even CDC spokespeople NOW say that "The vaccine was not designed to prevent the carrying or spread...of the virus...". Why then, the need for mandated vaccinations if it doesn't prevent someone from carrying it? According to the best evidence so far, naturally immune (people who have had the real thing) are far less likely to transmit it, and therefore the likely-hood of variant formation would be less.

We, the people, need to pull the reigns back on this whole shit-show.
 

Rigby5

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Uh, no.


There is absolutely no way for your immune system to prevent infection.
It does not even start building antibodies until after an established infection is discovered.
 

Ivan88

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Epidemics do not spread exponentially, but geometrically.
Here is the exact quote from the link:

When something doubles, it has a multiplication factor of 2, and when you have a multiplication factor, that is geometric growth.
Exponential growth is when it is growth by an exponent, such as if you have a series where the number is squared for the next, like 1, 2, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, ...
1 times 1 is still 1.
 

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